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June 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier

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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If you want the highest dewpoints anywhere in North or Central America next week, it may be the Midwest.  I'll have to check out the Middle East to see about them.

sfctd_na.thumb.png.c1cb35a41ad7223820cae5b64bd31071.png

 

That's awesome.  It's amazing how this part of the country transforms into jungle type conditions for a few periods every summer.  Quite the transition from the extreme cold and dry air masses that we see in January.  With the very wet soils in place, and corn running well ahead of average I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see some legit ASOS readings AOA 83 dewpoint at some point this summer.

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Cool stats!  I'm not sure my location even averages one 90 degree temp.  I've been here 5 years and haven't seen anything warmer than 87, and last summer (I'd have to check to be sure) only managed 80+ four times.

The magic of xmacis. Any stat you want in a few short clicks for any climate location! And I'm sure you are right, you are bound to be cooler in the mountains.

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25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That's awesome.  It's amazing how this part of the country transforms into jungle type conditions for a few periods every summer.  Quite the transition from the extreme cold and dry air masses that we see in January.  With the very wet soils in place, and corn running well ahead of average I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see some legit ASOS readings AOA 83 dewpoint at some point this summer.

 The seasons, particularly Winter and summer, are no joke here in the Midwest!

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24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That's awesome.  It's amazing how this part of the country transforms into jungle type conditions for a few periods every summer.  Quite the transition from the extreme cold and dry air masses that we see in January.  With the very wet soils in place, and corn running well ahead of average I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see some legit ASOS readings AOA 83 dewpoint at some point this summer.

Maybe late this week?  :guitar:  Looking at the 12z GFS rolling in, it has a lot of 82-84 degree dews early Friday evening.

For some of our older adults here, if it seems like it's more muggy with more extreme muggy airmasses compared to decades ago, you'd be correct.  That is an actual trend backed up by observations... maybe not everywhere (can't recall all the details of the study I read) but definitely in the areas with significant corn crop.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe late this week?  :guitar:  Looking at the 12z GFS rolling in, it has a lot of 82-84 degree dews early Friday evening.

For some of our older adults here, if it seems like it's more muggy with more extreme muggy airmasses compared to decades ago, you'd be correct.  That is an actual trend backed up by observations... maybe not everywhere (can't recall all the details of the study I read) but definitely in the areas with significant corn crop.

The 00z GFS had a string of 6 days (Thu-Tue) of upper 70s or low 80 degree dews over the DVN cwa.  Looks like we'll be mowing our lawns about every other day here in the next few weeks.  :lmao:

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Not ready to get 100% on board yet, but starting at the end of the month and heading into early July, I think this has a real shot to end up being one of the most significant heat waves for the Chicago area since 1995.  We're not necessarily talking about a bunch of 100 degree days... what could make this one more impressive/impactful than most that have come since 23 years ago is the potential duration and high overnight mins.  I guess there's a possibility of the ridge breaking down faster or the gradient ending up weak enough on some days for a lake breeze, but at this point the gradient looks strong enough to keep lake breezes in check for the most part this upcoming weekend.  

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41 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

If the Euro is to be believed the heat will get squashed much quicker than the GFS.  I'd probably side with the Euro in the longer range over the GFS, but I guess we'll see how it plays out.

Almost feels like a role reversal of past years when the GFS would get too progressive/trough happy and sometimes the Euro having big/sustained ridging in the long range that got muted as it got closer.  

2-3 days of torridity looks to be about bankworthy at this point.  Beyond that, we'll see.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Poor Tim in Kankakee :(

 

I'm going to take the under. :lol:

Regardless, for those of us that work outside in these conditions, Friday and Saturday will be a rough go...dangerous really. Why people root for this sh*t is beyond me. 

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Poor Tim in Kankakee :(

sfctapp.us_mw.thumb.png.dc06f1d623beba11f35071975ed15a15.png

For the past several runs now the GFS has showed widespread 82-84 dews for a good chunk of IL and northwest IN for late Friday.  Safe to say Friday afternoon/evening is going to be pretty uncomfortable in those areas.  For the day before on Thursday the area from central and southeast IA, and into western IL could see very high dews as well.  Euro usually under plays the dews a bit, and it has 80-81 in that area for Thursday evening.

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9 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

I'm going to take the under. :lol:

Regardless, for those of us that work outside in these conditions, Friday and Saturday will be a rough go...dangerous really. Why people root for this sh*t is beyond me. 

LOT buying in

As the upper ridge builds across the area Friday...850mb temps are
in the +23C to +25C range with 925mb temps in the +27C to +30C
range. These temps aloft should easily push sfc temps into the
mid 90s and possibly some upper 90s. On top of these already hot
temps...dewpoints are expected to be in the mid/upper 70s for
much of the area. Thus Friday peak forecast heat index values are
now 105-110 for much of the Chicago metro area and then into the
110-115 range for southern and western areas of the cwa.
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I believe ORD is going to manage an 80 degree low this time.  The last setup was a little more marginal and I was never that confident.  I think it has a better chance to happen this time though.  As with the setup earlier this month, the winds should tend to stay up a bit overnight, with dews at least as high and quite possibly a bit higher than last time.  The best opportunity for it looks to be on Saturday, but Sunday could possibly have a shot as well, especially IF convection doesn't interfere too much.  

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15 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

I'm going to take the under. :lol:

Regardless, for those of us that work outside in these conditions, Friday and Saturday will be a rough go...dangerous really. Why people root for this sh*t is beyond me. 

My guess is it's mostly those working in air conditioned comfort, but that's just a guess...<_<

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I'm definitely ready for a nice beautiful long weekend with some nice heat and humidity. Now I know that might sound strange, but I recently came back from a vacation in Thailand for about 2 weeks and that heat was unbearable. The humidity was nothing like the humidity we see here in the area. Having been to Vegas last year, I personally prefer dry heat over humid heat.  

We could really use a nice thunderstorm or two tomorrow. YYZ is sitting at only 1.65" of rain for the month and half that fell this past weekend. Hope everyone else is doing well and enjoying summer!

 

 

 

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Here's the NAM's first run during peak heating on Friday

 

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.676259f7383f3003c02ca3a3b9926055.png

 

Would point out this is generally several degrees warmer than the GFS.  If you just looked at the 850 mb values off the models, you would think widespread 100 degree potential given the vast area of 850 mb temps in the mid 20C.  But the issue is that the models don't quite mix that high... it's more like 900-875 mb.

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