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June 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

A cloudy cool day with temperatures in the 60s all day. Sun is just now coming out and we should reach a late day high in the low 70s. Felt amazing compared to the heat of the weekend.

74 just after 5pm

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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

1.02" of rain in my yard today.  Some parts of Cedar Rapids have received more than double that.

Yeah some nice soakers around this afternoon/evening.  Parts of the Iowa side of the QC picked up 3-4" in about an hour's time.  Had a real nice drencher here a short while ago.  Picked up 0.97" so far.  Some pretty nice boomers as well.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah some nice soakers around this afternoon/evening.  Parts of the Iowa side of the QC picked up 3-4" in about an hour's time.  Had a real nice drencher here a short while ago.  Picked up 0.97" so far.  Some pretty nice boomers as well.

Whole line rapidly crapped the bed as it worked towards me 

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53 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Whole line rapidly crapped the bed as it worked towards me 

Hopefully you guys can cash in later tonight and tomorrow.  Short-term cams look kinda clueless to what's going on now, so don't have much confidence in what they're depicting for the rest of the night and tomorrow.  Should be some streaks of significant rains though wherever the bands setup and train/pivot over.

Ended up with 1.03" for the day.  Brings the June total to 3.91".  DVN picked up 3.28" early this evening officially.

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Very surprised at the lack of flood headlines for the LOT CWA, and surrounding areas as well...Especially given recent heavy rains, and then what’s expected now through Thursday night.

Looks like a widespread 2-4” rain event for a good portion of the LOT CWA, with higher amounts possible.

Latest HRRR is the biggest run yet for the metro...

 

6A857A06-DD13-4971-BC96-8BB4526B63FE.png

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Very surprised at the lack of flood headlines for the LOT CWA, and surrounding areas as well...Especially given recent heavy rains, and then what’s expected now through Thursday night.

Looks like a widespread 2-4” rain event for a good portion of the LOT CWA, with higher amounts possible.

Latest HRRR is the biggest run yet for the metro...

 

6A857A06-DD13-4971-BC96-8BB4526B63FE.png

NAMs also pretty much in agreement, especially the Northern 2 tiers of counties in the CWA.

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On 6/19/2018 at 9:54 AM, janetjanet998 said:

also anytime you have a closed low with this kind of moisture quite often there is a heavy rainfall event near that low...especially at night...on the north side

 

very interesting set up over IL 

models have been very steady new... 12z NAM very concerning for Chicago metro....as upper level features and forcing increase tonight with PW still 1.75 or so..and Cook county is at the Pivot point .....

 

looks like a steady mod-heavy rain much of  the day(rates .1 to .4 inches per hou..r isolated higher) then we will have to see where that heavy band sets up overnight..

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1029 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
   
UPDATE  
  
1023 AM CDT  
  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN A CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST  
ILLINOIS, AS PART OF A LARGER AREA ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD  
CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. THE RAIN IN  
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS BEEN AROUND 0.75" PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED  
OVER AN INCH RATES. THOSE ARE RATES CONSISTENT WITH THE TROPICAL-  
LIKE ATMOSPHERE ANALYZED THIS MORNING, AND WITH RECENTLY WET   
CONDITIONS THESE ARE VERY CLOSE TO FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA RATES. AM   
CONCERNED WITH A HEAVY RAIN AREA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF   
FAR SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY AS OF 1020 AM, AS THAT COULD PUSH A FEW   
BASINS OVER. IT IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WHICH IS WHY HAVE  
NOT ISSUED AT THIS POINT. WE HAVE RECEIVED A HANDFUL REPORTS OF   
MINOR / FLOOD ADVISORY FLOODING, AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR A   
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COOK COUNTY,   
ESPECIALLY IF THAT AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AREA SLOWS.  
  
WHILE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN THIS AXIS BEYOND THIS INTO THE   
AFTERNOON, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS THAT IT WILL EASE IN   
INTENSITY. WHILE LEANING THAT WAY, ANY RAIN STILL MAY BE ENOUGH   
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
ATTENTION LATER TODAY MAY TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST CWA   
AS THE SURFACE LOW DUMBBELLS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.   
ALREADY AN AXIS OF MODEST CAPE, INCLUDING OVER 100 J/KG OF 0-3KM   
CAPE, THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN A   
CLEARING SWATH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE   
IOWA/MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER REGION, AND COULD SEE SOME LOW-   
TOPPED SUPERCELLS APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE  
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE THE THREATS MID-AFTERNOON   
INTO EARLY EVENING.  
  
THIS CONVECTIVE AREA MAY SET THE STAGE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN   
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD/EXPANDS INTO THE CWA.   
STILL SOME VARIANCE ON GUIDANCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THAT MAY SET UP.  
NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.  
  
MTF  
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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

models have been very steady new... 12z NAM very concerning for Chicago metro....as upper level features and forcing increase tonight with PW still 1.75 or so..and Cook county is at the Pivot point .....

 

looks like a steady mod-heavy rain much of  the day(rates .1 to .4 inches per hou..r isolated higher) then we will have to see where that heavy band sets up overnight..

12z NAM has a bullseye of over 6" downtown (in addition to what has already occurred through 12z).  I don't know about that but certainly potential for things to get a little hairy somewhere in the urban corridor.  Very efficient rain production as mentioned above.  

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

These rain showers over CR/IC this morning are almost tropical in nature. Drove through one and it absolutely poured tiny rain drops in the heaviest manner I’ve seen in quite awhile, very efficient rain producers. Thought that was kinda interesting.

Yeah, and I didn't see a drop, and won't.  Iowa City to North Liberty to the CR airport are getting hit hard.  One station in North Liberty is over 3 inches.

Models said there would be a line that pivots and stalls somewhere between CR and IC.  Unfortunately, it stalled about 5 miles south of me.  We don't need the rain, but I hate just barely getting missed by heavy stuff.

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totals increasing....and rain filling in over Will and Kankakee countys..reminds me of tropical bands coming off the ocean..but in this case the lake in places

also heavy rian showers over RFD again

 

 

 

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OAK LAWN          41.70N 87.76W   
06/21/2018  M3.67 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS          
  
            RAIN TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT. 3.41 INCHES IN PAST 4 HOURS.   
            1.49 INCHES IN PAST 2 HOURS.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Really have the model/ensemble signals for robust ridging by the end of the month.  Could have some nasty dews too especially with all this rain.

Euro all over the warmup and it is going to be muggy as can be too. That might save us from getting extremely hot, but real feels will still be high with heat index.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yeah, and I didn't see a drop, and won't.  Iowa City to North Liberty to the CR airport are getting hit hard.  One station in North Liberty is over 3 inches.

Models said there would be a line that pivots and stalls somewhere between CR and IC.  Unfortunately, it stalled about 5 miles south of me.  We don't need the rain, but I hate just barely getting missed by heavy stuff.

Still seems to be drifting ever so slightly northward, doubt it makes it to Hiawatha though. I'm expecting FFWs to be issued shortly under there. Perhaps even some isolated 4-5" totals when all is said and done.

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25 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Still seems to be drifting ever so slightly northward, doubt it makes it to Hiawatha though. I'm expecting FFWs to be issued shortly under there. Perhaps even some isolated 4-5" totals when all is said and done.

The line bubbled north just a bit and dropped a quick 0.31" on me.  Since then, it appears the line has gone back to where it was, aimed directly at North Liberty, where 3.5 to 5.0 inches has already fallen and the heavy rain is still falling... and for some reason DVN has not issued a flash flood warning.  

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Euro all over the warmup and it is going to be muggy as can be too. That might save us from getting extremely hot, but real feels will still be high with heat index.

12z Euro builds heights even more impressively.  10 day prog but pig ridge watch

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.thumb.png.edd2965eda8f9167ce23617762d8915b.png

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It has been pretty wet this June, after a top-5 wettest May as well. Fortunately it hasn't all come at once, so we've been spared the widespread and damaging river flooding that took place ten years ago this month. Of course that stretch was also accompanied by tornado outbreaks, something this season as conspicuously lacked as we chasers/severe buffs are all too aware.

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Not exactly sure how it's going to play out in the LOT area.  Models sort of suggest the setup could be just progressive enough to prevent things from getting out of hand, but it's a close call, and with good precip rates it won't take long to put up some pretty big numbers on top of what's already fallen.  Most favored area appears to be somewhere around here to north of the I-80 corridor.  

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