Ace Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It should be a fairly nice weekend in the metro area. Unless the models are wrong most if not all of the rain and storms should stay off to our south once again. I wouldn't be that confident of a good Sunday in your area in Middlesex County. GFS and RGEM has slowly trended north today and the NAM has stayed consistent. Northern New Jersey may be spared, but its not looking good from Central Jersey southward. Upton has my area here in NE Jersey reaching 78 degrees tomorrow with party sunny skies. I think I'll take the under on that with clouds being more of an issue and rain may creep in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 Just now, Ace said: I wouldn't be that confident of a good Sunday in your area in Middlesex County. GFS and RGEM has slowly trended north today and the NAM has stayed consistent. Northern New Jersey may be spared, but its not looking good from Central Jersey southward. Upton has my area here in NE Jersey reaching 78 degrees tomorrow with party sunny skies. I think I'll take the under on that with clouds being more of an issue and rain may creep in too. See my more recent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: See my more recent post. Yes I just saw it after I posted lol. We will have to wait and see how the radar looks tomorrow to determine northern extent, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: Yes I just saw it after I posted lol. We will have to wait and see how the radar looks tomorrow to determine northern extent, etc. Interesting that a couple of meteorologists on social media didn't seem so confident on the rain/storms staying south of the NYC area. Their concern may wind up being correct, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Just now, Rtd208 said: Interesting that a couple of meteorologists on social media didn't seem so confident on the rain/storms staying south of the NYC area. Their concern may wind up being correct, time will tell. If we go by the precip gradient of the last couple months, then central NJ south will get a good hit. NYC is probably the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If we go by the precip gradient of the last couple months, then central NJ south will get a good hit. NYC is probably the cutoff. wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: wow! 2/6/10 in June!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 i enjoy rainy sundays just come north into the city !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 Its weird to see that cutoff during the summer.. itd been a very wet couple of weeks for south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 2/6/10 in June!! 11 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i enjoy rainy sundays just come north into the city !! The city is right on the edge, southern areas of the city obviously do better then northern areas. Looks like I get around 1.00-1.25" of rain if the NAM is correct just eyeballing it. Areas a little further north should certainly keep on eye on things since a small shift north will make a big difference in precipitation amounts for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 1 minute ago, JSantanaNYC said: Its weird to see that cutoff during the summer.. itd been a very wet couple of weeks for south jersey. Is it January? I mean seriously, looking at that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 The 12z Euro continues the hard suppression to the south of NYC theme. Looks like yet another backdoor cold front with easterly flow for Sunday into Monday. Maybe some light showers making it to NYC for the 7th weekend in a row with measurable rainfall. This is our most recent version of 2010's stuck or stagnant weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z Euro continues the hard suppression to the south of NYC theme. Looks like yet another backdoor cold front with easterly flow for Sunday into Monday. Maybe some light showers making it to NYC for the 7th weekend in a row with measurable rainfall. This is our most recent version of 2010's stuck or stagnant weather patterns. It will be interesting to see which model winds up being more correct, I would hedge towards the Euro to be honest. Extreme SNJ is currently getting hit hard by heavy rain/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 18z NAM brings significant rain up into northern Jersey tomorrow. Continues to be a very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 18z NAM brings significant rain up into northern Jersey tomorrow. Continues to be a very difficult forecast. It does appear that the 18z NAM took another jog north with the precipitation. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It does appear that the 18z NAM took another jog north with the precipitation. Something to keep an eye on. RGEM took another jog north as well. It now gets decent rain up to Middlesex County. People that were expecting a dry sunday based on yesterday's forecasts might end up being surprised. Sunday is looking worse and worse as the data continues to come in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 Looks like the 18z GFS may have bumped slightly north as well. I would like to see what the 0z runs do before buying into that brings precipitation further north. I would still hedge towards the Euro for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Has the NAM gone off its rocker? It now hits most of the area tomorrow afternoon and night with a huge 2 to 4 inch rain event. People are gonna be shocked if this happens, because there's no hint of this in any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Has the NAM gone off its rocker? It now hits most of the area tomorrow afternoon and night with a huge 2 to 4 inch rain event. People are gonna be shocked if this happens, because there's no hint of this in any forecast. Wow it certainly does, interesting to say the least. Curious to see if the other models come in further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Rgem is wet for central nj but has nothing for the city eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 The 00z GFS looks a little south of its 18z run, so either the NAM is onto something or it is completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Nam crushes us though most of this is tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 72degs., or Normal. Month to date is -0.4. Should be Near Normal by the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 17 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It will be interesting to see which model winds up being more correct, I would hedge towards the Euro to be honest. Extreme SNJ is currently getting hit hard by heavy rain/storms. I am getting some light rain now in SW Suffolk. Sharp cutoff just to my north with some breaks in the clouds there. This makes the 7th straight weekend since late April with some rain around the area. So the early season weekend beach business continues to get off to a slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 amazing cutoff-nothing expected here while NYC gets 2 inches of rain-that's a span of 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Everything looks north to me cloud deck and overall orientation of radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 The current radar looks reasonably close to the HRRR, GFS , and Euro which keeps the heaviest rains south of NYC. You can see how the NAM forecast is already too far north with the heavy rain axis to our west. Notice how the heaviest rains by 9 am were south of the PA border instead of into Western NY like the NAM was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The current radar looks reasonably close to the HRRR, GFS , and Euro which keeps the heaviest rains south of NYC. You can see how the NAM forecast is already too far north with the heavy rain axis to our west. Notice how the heaviest rains by 9 am were south of the PA border instead of into Western NY like the NAM was showing. Hope youre right looks lcose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Hope youre right looks lcose I mean honestly, even the 06Z GFS came further north with the heavier precipitation. I am not saying the NAM will be right but we certainly can't deny the trend. I agree it looks pretty close to me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.