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June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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7 minutes ago, jets said:

Gfs continues to say no

backdoor. We roast

 

The 12z fv3-gfs had the backdoor but not as strong as the mesoscale models. The 18z isn't our yet so we'll see what it will show. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's also a product of the ridge poking up so far north into Canada. 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaMean_atl_1.thumb.png.c666552c0083933bf76b8d2898ab6428.png

ecmwf-ens_mslpaMean_atl_6.thumb.png.222055f3ba97ed06325053208ffd57e5.png

 

 

 

From over a week ago the ridge all along looked pretty far north with upstate NY looking best for record highs.  Onshore winds were always possible along with possible clouds from decaying mcs along the Eastern boundary

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Last day of June will average 85degs., or 11degs. AN.

Month to date is exactly Normal and should end at +0.3.

The whole 8 days is averaging 83degs., or 8degs. AN.

The GFS Max./Min. for next 10 days down to 93 degree average.

Wind goes to 180 at JFK during afternoon and NYC stays at 270, which  will make the difference again today.

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8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the nam got much weaker with that back door front

The 6z NAMs and the RGEM/GEMLAM still have some winds off the water, coming through around 6ish. It's not like it gets cold or anything but at least it could give us a quick drop from the 100 degree temps. 

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This month is a great example of how uneven the rainfall pattern can be with warm season convection. EWR is at the 14th driest 1.87" while DXR has 5.13. We generally need stronger and more organized storm systems for an even soaking across the region.

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59 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The 6z NAMs and the RGEM/GEMLAM still have some winds off the water, coming through around 6ish. It's not like it gets cold or anything but at least it could give us a quick drop from the 100 degree temps. 

Beautiful morning. 78/66. 

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Could EWR get close to 100F today, relatively dry dews and a warmer start will certainly help. 

The 0z Euro/EPS looked crazy, I've never seen such a strong, expansive ridge for July and it's only been trending stronger.

Really the only thing that stops us from getting triple digits are sea breezes, but then again, SBs will also raise the dews to near 80.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Beautiful morning. 78/66. 

 

I watered the plants this morning and it didn't feel bad. It felt pretty good. Of course I was in the shade and I prefer to have these conditions as afternoon highs haha. 

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85 at JFK and 86 at EWR at 10am. 87 at my station but may be a degree or 2 too high as the sensor suite is mounted about 5 ft on a pole above the roof and with calm winds, it may not be mixing air too well. Regardless it’s still hot for this time of day.

Edit: Maybe not. There has been a light breeze  over the last few minutes and the temp has still risen to 89.

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