psv88 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro has 18-20C 850's for NYC Metro and 22-24C in Upstate New York. Models probably need some more time to pin down the exact core of the heat since the GFS is closer to NYC metro. Thats crazy. Widespread 100+ in the valleys upstate, figure 95-100 in NE NJ, NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 What does that mean for long Island in terms of heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2018 Author Share Posted June 25, 2018 Just throwing some early guess numbers out for Newark beginning Thursday 6/28 through July 4th. Thursday 6/28: 91 Friday 6/29: 93 Saturday 6/30: 96 Sunday 7/1: 99 Monday 7/2: 100 Tuesday 7/3: 100 Wednesday 7/4: 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 38 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: What does that mean for long Island in terms of heat? Too early to say. If the ridge is too far north we get wind off the ocean and probably do upper 80s and tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2018 Author Share Posted June 25, 2018 LOL @ Mt.Holly NWS office for my area next Monday 7/2, calling for lower 90's temps. I don't think so if these model temp output numbers are going to be right, they even seem a bit low for the weekend as well. This is not uncommon for the NWS and they will probably increase temps as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 Gust front (Time sensitive) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-truecolor-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: LOL @ Mt.Holly NWS office for my area next Monday 7/2, calling for lower 90's temps. I don't think so if these model temp output numbers are going to be right, they even seem a bit low for the weekend as well. This is not uncommon for the NWS and they will probably increase temps as we get closer. Matches the Euro which is nothing like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 The core of the heat looks to be north of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 For the record, the 0Z GFS---The next 10: 85, 83, 79, 92, 97, 101, 105, 107, 107, 105-----average 96.1, ends on July 4 Will update as needed. Looks like Dallas starting the 28th. Update from 12Z: 85, 83, 79, 90, 97, 100, 105, 101, 95, 98-----average 93.3, also ends July 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 I'm thinking, with the way the Northern Hemisphere pattern is evolving and ENSO, it could be a near record July and August. mid/late July could be really hot. fwiw. Hadley Cell expansion http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/tr12f168.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Remainder of June averaging 77degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is just +0.1. Should end at +0.6. The whole 8 days averaging 79degs., or 5degs. AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 14 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: What does that mean for long Island in terms of heat? ...means you go to our ocean beaches and sit there for days and days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 The potential heat wave set up reminds me of July 1999; slightly off topic below: I was in a hospital in New Mexico, missing my trip to Philmont, watching Al Roker describe the 100+ temps for Nj/NYC. My younger brother was also at camp in Allamuchy, and it was cooler in Taos by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Good radiational cooling this morning with upper 40's out on Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Good radiational cooling this morning with upper 40's out on Eastern LI. 56 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 19 hours ago, JerseyWx said: That would be impressive for the end of June. I could see it happening though considering the skies will be clear and the wind should diminish. Made it to 47 for the low, quite the flip incoming later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Typical post 2011 June where the warmest temperature departures stay to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Made it to 47 for the low, quite the flip incoming later this week. 43 here. That's pretty impressive given how short the radiating window is in late June... if sunrise were delayed another hour or two, the most tender plants may have started protesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: 43 here. That's pretty impressive given how short the radiating window is in late June... if sunrise were delayed another hour or two, the most tender plants may have started protesting I was waiting for you to chime in, I had guessed low 40's for you, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Typical post 2011 June where the warmest temperature departures stay to our west. This looks like it's one of the hottest Junes on record for the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Typical post 2011 June where the warmest temperature departures stay to our west. We've really managed to stay in our cooler bubble while the rest of the country if not the world has warmed rapidly, fascinating when you consider the AGW aspect of it all. Then again we weren't devoid of record warmth, it just happened to dodge the summer months over the last several years. No one's gonna complain about record warmth in Dec-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We've really managed to stay in our cooler bubble while the rest of the country if not the world has warmed rapidly, fascinating when you consider the AGW aspect of it all. Then again we weren't devoid of record warmth, it just happened to dodge the summer months over the last several years. Same thing happened in February 2015 and countless other months. Look at February 2015, we were so cold but the globe as usual was very hot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 33 minutes ago, Sundog said: This looks like it's one of the hottest Junes on record for the USA. If the current prism analysis is correct, the US is at 70.7 vs the 71.8 record in 2016. 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We've really managed to stay in our cooler bubble while the rest of the country if not the world has warmed rapidly, fascinating when you consider the AGW aspect of it all. Then again we weren't devoid of record warmth, it just happened to dodge the summer months over the last several years. No one's gonna complain about record warmth in Dec-March Luckily, the 2010's still haven't produced a summer version of the December 2015 or February 20, 2018 ridge. A +6 to +10 departure during July would be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Made it to 47 for the low, quite the flip incoming later this week. We had great conditions last night for the temps to drop quickly. Definitely a crisp morning for late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Ad-Free Secondary Group 1,815 posts Location:ConeyIsland Report post Posted 14 hours ago For the record, the 0Z GFS---The next 10: 85, 83, 79, 92, 97, 101, 105, 107, 107, 105-----average 96.1, ends on July 4 Will update as needed. Looks like Dallas starting the 28th. Update from 12Z: 85, 83, 79, 90, 97, 100, 105, 101, 95, 98-----average 93.3, also ends July 4 Update from latest 0Z: 81, 80, 91, 97, 101, 95, 91, 89, 90, 79--average 89.4, ends July 5 Meanwhile, it is just 69 here at Noon. Water temp. is probably higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This coming warm up is looking less impressive than just a few days ago. Models hold onto more high pressure east of New England. So there is more of a onshore flow. the euro backed off a bit on the offshore ULL today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 I am not sure I am sold on the "less heat" idea, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 44 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: We have done well with these events in the past on the island. Also a heavy rain threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The local lawns are rooting for frames 37-39 around 12z Thursday. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html Pretty green up here from that inch of rain last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.