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June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

0z EPS and GEFS came in even stronger with the ridge. Probabilities increasing for a 594+ dam heat dome for the start of July.

It's been a long time since we've seen that type of ridge to start July. The fact that models keep showing a stronger ridge as we get closer should be alarming.

That's no typical July heat. 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z GFS looks like it was going for some dry condition heat enhancement focused over New England. Somebody could hit 100 in the Northeast if this lives up to its full potential. 

It certainly looks like we will see at least a 5 day period with temps in the 90's and possibly approaching 100 on a couple of those days. Hot hot hot.

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11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It certainly looks like we will see at least a 5 day period with temps in the 90's and possibly approaching 100 on a couple of those days. Hot hot hot.

Certainly looks impressive from this far out...meanwhile, only rain here so far was the 0.18" that fell before  midnight.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been a long time since we've seen that type of ridge to start July. The fact that models keep showing a stronger ridge as we get closer should be alarming.

That's no typical July heat. 

We are we thinking for next weekend mid 90s?

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33 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We are we thinking for next weekend mid 90s?

Probably upper 90s, if the 594-597 dm ridge is correct then some places will hit 100-102 especially towards New England. 

Need to see if we can get a 600 dm ridge to form, that'll make it more likely for us to hit triple digits.

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like a bust on the widespread showers today-radar pretty empty...

It now looks to me as if we have a better chance of seeing scattered heavy t-storms tomorrow in the warmer air as the front approaches. Today looks more isolated. I know that's the opposite of what forecasts are showing right now.

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17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It now looks to me as if we have a better chance of seeing scattered heavy t-storms tomorrow in the warmer air as the front approaches. Today looks more isolated. I know that's the opposite of what forecasts are showing right now.

The nam is showing that now, mostly dry today but fairly wet tomorrow afternoon and evening

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47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam is showing that now, mostly dry today but fairly wet tomorrow afternoon and evening

That would suck, it's such a dreary chilly day today anyway, it might as well rain.  The weekend hopes hinge on tomorrow weather wise.

 

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Remainder of June averaging 76degs., or 2 degs. AN.

June to date is exactly Normal.   Should end at +0.5.

The full 8 days is averaging 77degs., or 1deg. AN.

The potential for July 1*** is +16 to +22.   Forget about the Marines......go tell it to Con Ed.  lol!

***This would be a shame, since it is the oldest surviving daily record high in July---100 in 1901.  Latest GFS takes July 01 off the hook a little, and opts for the near greatest back-to-back days 104, 103 ever.

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