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June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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GFS has manic relapse as therapy fails to soothe the savage beast within:

JUNE  29---94,  30---92    JULY  01---91,   02---95,   03---97,   04---95,   05---97,   06---97 .....................  We will see how long this holds up.

Like the last outburst (I hope)---so don't worry since so far GEFS says subtract 6 degrees from these.

For reference the normal 500mb height for July 01 is about 5800m, and 850mb temperature is 15C.    Ensemble heights look to be +100m, and 850's +5C., so a string of 90's not going to be a surprise if it is mostly sunny.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First 594 dam ridge in the East to start July since 2013?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0705j5.php

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.thumb.png.27c80deecb798bb382d53941b1237f1f.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.thumb.png.7583860f0bcc5fb2fe4b002f0b36b14f.png

Those heights in CA./NV. differ by 250M from the OP.     I think the flatter pattern with AN heights, is more likely.   I use add/subtract 1 degree at 2M for every +/-10meters of anomaly.   For 850's if vertical mixing is good, I would add/subtract 2 degrees F for each +/- degree of anomaly.

 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like it's a hot start to July before the ridge pulls back to the Plains a few days later. 

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_probs.php

eps_z500_5900_conus_240.thumb.png.64ce9598c1bf78e11c0b3a1c514d8709.png

eps_z500_5900_conus_360.thumb.png.eb56e51ee05114977a5cbad37a5545bb.png

 

 

Good. Just planted some grass which is starting to grow, dont need record heat lasting too long. also will be without AC for 2-3 days when work being done at my house next week.

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10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

If the Euro is correct and the ridge pulls back to the plains wouldn't that put us in the "Ring of Fire" for storms?

Yeah, the ring of fire convection gets going next week as piece of the Plains heat begins to surge toward our area.

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29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like another few days or so of 90+ temps is a good bet to start next month, it could be a hot July 4th holiday.

We could start seeing the first 90's  of that warm up later next week as the ridge begins expanding to the east. That's around the time the models show MCS development over the MW/GL moving eastward.

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GFSx already has 3 90's just this month.  I think last 3 days of the month will be +10, and raise whole month by a degree to finish at +2.

SST is 70 already, so forget 'sea breeze to the rescue' talk.   

I say 100 for Newark by July 08.   This mark will fall during hottest part of summer, when RWTT shows a trough out west and ridging here. (late July to Aug. 05)

I will be delighted to be all wrong here.

 

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