bluewave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I mean honestly, even the 06Z GFS came further north with the heavier precipitation. I am not saying the NAM will be right but we certainly can't deny the trend. I agree it looks pretty close to me as well. But notice how even the 4km NAM is further south than the 12km NAM with the heaviest axis. Looks more like a jackpot somewhere between South Philly and the Driscoll bridge with lighter amounts north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: But notice how even the 4km NAM is further south than the 12km NAM with the heaviest axis. Looks more like a Jackpot somewhere between Philly and the Driscoll bridge with lighter amounts north of there. I can agree with that, but in a sense the NAM has already been more right then wrong regardless how far north the "heaviest" precipitation makes it. The fact is precipitation as a whole is further north like the NAM has been showing over the last few runs. I think the radar (currently) looks closer to the NAM versus anything else, it certainly doesn't look like the GFS at this point that is for sure. We will just have to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I can agree with that, but in a sense the NAM has already been more right then wrong regardless how far north the "heaviest" precipitation makes it. The fact is precipitation as a whole is further north like the NAM has been showing over the last few runs. I think the radar (currently) looks closer to the NAM versus anything else, it certainly doesn't look like the GFS at this point that is for sure. We will just have to see how it plays out. But you can see the 12z NAM shifting south of 6z with the heaviest rainfall axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: But you can see the 12z NAM shifting south of 6z with the heaviest rainfall axis. But but but..lol Like I said I am not claiming the NAM will be correct here, just currently is more correct then the other models IMO. I am still under the idea that most of the heaviest rain will probably be south of the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 Current temp 68/DP 51/RH 61% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Lots of dry air to overcome...dp has been dropping all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, doncat said: Lots of dry air to overcome...dp has been dropping all morning. Strong high pressure holding on over New England and SE Canada as has been the case recently. Getting some breaks of sun out on Long Island with dews in the 40's. While it isn't a beach day, you can get out and do some yardwork. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Yep the steady rain has already started here and it's clearly gonna rain all afternoon and evening according to radar. Complete washout today. You could see it coming yesterday as NAM and RGEM shifted the rain way north. Too bad Craig Allen and Jeff Smith were off last night and low skill people were filling in for them, so no one was on that could look at the new models and alert people to the changes. A lot of people are gonna be surprised to see the washout this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep the steady rain has already started here and it's clearly gonna rain all afternoon and evening according to radar. Complete washout today. You could see it coming yesterday as NAM and RGEM shifted the rain way north. Too bad Craig Allen and Jeff Smith were off last night and low skill people were filling in for them, so no one was on that could look at the new models and alert people to the changes. A lot of people are gonna be surprised to see the washout this afternoon. Nws is only going 40% in my area. They'll probably put out another update soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Dry here with filtered sun. 69/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nws is only going 40% in my area. They'll probably put out another update soon Yeah that's a joke. Forecast should be 100% chance of rain with amounts close to 1 inch. They are terribly slow to update. A lot of people will unfortunately be surprised by this complete washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah that's a joke. Forecast should be 100% chance of rain with amounts close to 1 inch. They are terribly slow to update. A lot of people will unfortunately be surprised by this complete washout. Meanwhile the other day when there was barely anything on radar they were going with a 70% of numerous showers and we saw nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Drier air is eating the precip a bit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 If it was winter.. many people will be mad on this forum right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 EPS hinting at the potential for the first 90's of June around the 18th. Looks like the WAR/SE ridge finally makes a cameo appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 I think we switch to full summer mode after the 17th, meaning daily 80+ readings and a high chance of 90+ temps. Should see a lot less backdoor influence too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 Current temp 65/DP 55/RH 60% 0.03" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Just mid 60's here today after reaching 83 and 85 two previous days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I think we switch to full summer mode after the 17th, meaning daily 80+ readings and a high chance of 90+ temps. Should see a lot less backdoor influence too. I hope that you are correct! May I ask what the reasoning is for this forecast from you? Is there anything that you are seeing that gives you the confidence to say that? I'm not trying to be difficult, I desperately want to believe you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2018 Author Share Posted June 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I hope that you are correct! May I ask what the reasoning is for this forecast from you? Is there anything that you are seeing that gives you the confidence to say that? I'm not trying to be difficult, I desperately want to believe you Yeah, look at the post above the one you quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 10 hours of light rain amounting to only a trace at Ewr Nam continues to tighten the gradient. Less than half an inch north of 78. 2+ in Middlesex cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Just hit 0.20" of rain for the day here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 records on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 7 hours ago, bluewave said: EPS hinting at the potential for the first 90's of June around the 18th. Looks like the WAR/SE ridge finally makes a cameo appearance. like manna from heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 let's see if that verifies-like a warm winter when the cold is always 7-10 days away a cool summer is the same in reverse...the warmth is always a week away and never lasts more than a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Can’t seem to buy any rain here. Yet just 5 miles south it rained most of the day at jones beach. That NE dry air is killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 11, 2018 Author Share Posted June 11, 2018 Picked up around 0.15" of rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Rains about over here, so 0.36" for the event looks to be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Next 8 days still averaging 72degs., or just about Normal. Month to date is -0.80 and should be Near Normal by the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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