CheeselandSkies Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 3K NAM looks pretty gnarly When does it not? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2018 Author Share Posted May 29, 2018 The western side/band looks pretty healthy in Alabama, and radar probably isn't doing it justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2018 Author Share Posted May 29, 2018 fwiw, no severe reports down south yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fwiw, no severe reports down south yet today. Fairly comparable to the parameters that will be in place farther north tomorrow too. Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2018 Author Share Posted May 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, OHweather said: Fairly comparable to the parameters that will be in place farther north tomorrow too. Hmm.. Now watch tomorrow have like a dozen tornadoes lol I think it is useful to see what's going on today, especially since the parameters are fairly similar tomorrow as you said. But subtle differences can sometimes result in drastically different outcomes. I don't think there's much doubt that we're going to get bands of storms so the question comes down to severity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 41 minutes ago, OHweather said: Fairly comparable to the parameters that will be in place farther north tomorrow too. Hmm.. I think the key for tomorrow is if the low does strengthen, if that happens the pressure falls will help immensely compared to today down there where the low is weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2018 Author Share Posted May 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: I think the key for tomorrow is if the low does strengthen, if that happens the pressure falls will help immensely compared to today down there where the low is weakening. Seems like the models have it relatively steady state. It's ~998 mb right now and it looks to be about that pressure by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Watch this fall apart as it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 26 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Watch this fall apart as it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Poof Yep disappeared completely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 Not sure what's going to happen here. I could see anything from less than 1" to about 3-4" if that heavier core band on the western side of the low moves over. Extrapolating the cams would suggest that heavy band ends up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 Kinda cool to see the well-defined CAPE minimum near the surface low, as is typical with these remnant systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Now that's a tie dye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 Record May precipitable water at DTX is 1.96", ILX is 1.99" and ILN is 1.90". All of these have a shot at being broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Record May precipitable water at DTX is 1.96", ILX is 1.99" and ILN is 1.90". All of these have a shot at being broken. I'll take the over on DTX for the 00z sounding tomorrow, ILX and ILN might be in between sounding launches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 The 10pm cdt advisory from the WPC dropped the “sub” label and called it a good ol’ fashion tropical depression. Some wind damage reported near the center into TN this evening so it’s held together impressively well since landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 40 minutes ago, OHweather said: The 10pm cdt advisory from the WPC dropped the “sub” label and called it a good ol’ fashion tropical depression. Some wind damage reported near the center into TN this evening so it’s held together impressively well since landfall. They actually bumped up the maximum sustained winds on this advisory. A couple sites in KY/TN are gusting near 40 mph. Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 20 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL012018 1000 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 87.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flash Flood Watches in effect for portions of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, North and South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 87.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually increase. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts, will be possible from northern sections of Alabama/Georgia northward across western and middle Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. Heavy rain is also forecast across the Appalachian Mountains from the Carolinas to Virginia/West Virginia. Flash flooding and rapid water rises on creeks and streams across these areas will remain a possibility through the overnight. WIND: A few gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across portions of middle and western Tennessee through the overnight. For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Forecaster Hayes FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 36.3N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 38.4N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 42.3N 86.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 46.6N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 It's almost uncanny how similar the track is to the 1863 storm. And practically the same days. Might have to try to find some info on how the rest of 1863 went lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: They actually bumped up the maximum sustained winds on this advisory. A couple sites in KY/TN are gusting near 40 mph. Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 20 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL012018 1000 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 87.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flash Flood Watches in effect for portions of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, North and South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 87.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually increase. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts, will be possible from northern sections of Alabama/Georgia northward across western and middle Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. Heavy rain is also forecast across the Appalachian Mountains from the Carolinas to Virginia/West Virginia. Flash flooding and rapid water rises on creeks and streams across these areas will remain a possibility through the overnight. WIND: A few gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across portions of middle and western Tennessee through the overnight. For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Forecaster Hayes FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 36.3N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 38.4N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 42.3N 86.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 46.6N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW It’ll be interesting to see what the gusts are Wednesday afternoon, especially just east of the center if some sun can poke through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Only really thin clouds out ahead of it today, we might get some heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 87.4W ABOUT 80 MI...129 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 24 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Pressure is falling as it approaches, down to 997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 12 hours ago, Stebo said: I'll take the over on DTX for the 00z sounding tomorrow, ILX and ILN might be in between sounding launches. ILX tied theirs with 1.99" observed on today's 12z sounding. We'll see what DTX and ILN come in with tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 This is fairly remarkable for late May, having an environment this far north that’s allowed Alberto to maintain well and transition to fully tropical while over land. Can thank the weak/displaced jet for giving Alberto close to a barotropic environment overland and weak wind shear...which along with heat flux from the soil, enhanced by the month-long warmth, has allowed the storm to maintain its warm core and central convection for nearly 48 hours over land and counting. The fun ends tonight as it interacts with the shortwave coming in from the upper Midwest. Very unusual to see a legit TC over Indiana, and in May is obviously pretty mind blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 5 hours ago, OHweather said: This is fairly remarkable for late May, having an environment this far north that’s allowed Alberto to maintain well and transition to fully tropical while over land. Can thank the weak/displaced jet for giving Alberto close to a barotropic environment overland and weak wind shear...which along with heat flux from the soil, enhanced by the month-long warmth, has allowed the storm to maintain its warm core and central convection for nearly 48 hours over land and counting. The fun ends tonight as it interacts with the shortwave coming in from the upper Midwest. Very unusual to see a legit TC over Indiana, and in May is obviously pretty mind blowing. Yeah, it's still a pretty well defined system/swirl on satellite and radar. About the only thing lacking is that it has been dry and not wet lately in the Ohio Valley, so the "brown ocean" effect is reduced, but other than that it's been a good environment to allow it to maintain some organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, it's still a pretty well defined system/swirl on satellite and radar. About the only thing lacking is that it has been dry and not wet lately in the Ohio Valley, so the "brown ocean" effect is reduced, but other than that it's been a good environment to allow it to maintain some organization. Right, could’ve maybe added a few more degrees to the dew points and enhanced the effect a bit more with some wetter soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 LAF is down to 3/4 mile visibility with heavy rain, which is pretty impressive considering the light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Alberto’s remnants missed Champaign by mere miles, meanwhile vermilion county (one county to our west) had heavy rainfall from the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 T-storm warning just SW of me. Local news said wind damage reported near Lebanon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Just went under a warning. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wilmington OH 338 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Clark County in west central Ohio... Northwestern Greene County in west central Ohio... Eastern Montgomery County in west central Ohio... Southeastern Miami County in west central Ohio... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kettering, moving north at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. * Locations impacted include... Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Troy, Trotwood, Miamisburg, Vandalia, Englewood, Tipp City, Bellbrook, Moraine, New Carlisle, Oakwood, Wright-Patterson Afb, West Carrollton, Brown, Riverside and Clayton. This includes the following Interstates... I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 29 and 46. I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 43 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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