Orangeburgwx Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 I think all models show something developing from this system (unlike the one two weeks ago) and due to the rapid bursts of activity around the center, I believe we are close enough to the event to make this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 24, 2018 Author Share Posted May 24, 2018 GOES-16 visual of the storm, refresh every 10 minutes for new imange on the loop https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Euro going for Mobile now on the 12z run.Hour 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 I think we can toss the GFS for now, it doesn't have any consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 10 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: I think we can toss the GFS for now, it doesn't have any consistency NHS seems to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 First named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Sub-tropical Storm Alberto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Alberto (2 of 'em!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 26, 2018 Author Share Posted May 26, 2018 5 hours ago, Solak said: Alberto (2 of 'em!) One at the top is the mid-level center, bottom is the low level center... How the heck the low level is surviving 55mph shear is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 The influence we will see from Alberto is gonna give a lot of people some serious rainfall totals. The models are shifting the heaviest rain totals around run to run so who knows how It will all shake out. Gonna be plenty wet across most of the state though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Albany GA is initial Target for tornado chase. Plan to follow cells from there northeast. Good 850/925mb wind fields. Clearing/dry slot. Surface convergence zone. Decent terrain, it's all relative in Dixie. Sorry short last post until hopefully a report. Going south from Macon lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Hadn't even noticed the slight risk area today. It could be a bit interesting later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Areas affected...Portions of Georgia and southeastern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281848Z - 282145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop to the northeast of Alberto this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a possible Tornado Watch. DISCUSSION...Latest NLDN lightning data from 1845Z shows an increase in electrical activity within the last hour in the outer rainbands to the northeast of Alberto's center. This is likely the result of convective cells deepening as they move into an environment that has become unstable (e.g., MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) due to ample insolation over the last several hours. The low-level wind field is also increasing across the discussion area with regional VAD profiles and RAP mesoanalysis suggesting 0-1 SRH values of 100-200 m2/s2. The low-level wind field is expected to continue increasing this afternoon as Alberto progresses toward the area, which will further elongate hodographs and may promote transient low-level rotation and subsequent brief tornadoes. While radar analysis over the last hour shows some weak low-level rotation with cells across the area, trends will be monitored for a more robust threat and a possible Tornado Watch. ..Elliott/Hart.. 05/28/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 33028565 33448461 33248381 32908302 32428260 31888232 30938257 30728295 30538324 30588381 30898467 31318533 31818597 33028565 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Alberto looks better over land now than it ever did over water. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 LOL yes late Tuesday Alberto looked great going into Tenn. As for my Monday project - bust! I know better but I had not been out even once this year. Northeast or east of tropical low strategy works best when it has started to drift to the east; therefore, cells move more into the low level flow. Alberto was tracking NNW; so, cells were neutral if not moving away from their inflow. Stronger cyclones can gin up tornadoes either direction. Alberto was not one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 31, 2018 Author Share Posted May 31, 2018 Alberto currently in Michigan and about to cross the border still a fully tropical depression... Not everyday you would see a post like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 It's up in Canada now and still looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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