2018 North Atlantic tropical storm / hurricane season forecast contest

[BlunderStorm]

17/9/4

May: 1/0/0

June: 1/0/0

July: 2/1/0

August: 4/2/1

September: 5/4/2

October: 3/2/1

Nov-Dec: 1/0/0

[Roger Smith]

We are closing in on the contest deadline, there's nothing too imminent so I will allow entries and edits to end of day June 5th then post the table of entries -- let's say 03z June 6th will be when I harvest the entries so if you're going to edit or enter, do it before that time.

[Roger Smith]

2018 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- Table of entries

Entries include the 100 count for May and are adjusted when monthly totals appear to add up to seasonal forecasts (in other words, the 100 is added on). Where May is included the total is left as posted. When there is only a seasonal forecast and no monthlies, the contest normal values are used scaled to the forecast (* appears beside forecaster name). These forecasters can supply monthly values before future months begin if they wish, and subject to the following: 

Contest rules state that your monthlies do not have to add up to your seasonal. But if anyone thinks this is an error and wants to adjust, you have until end of June 7th to adjust (PM sent to one entrant on this issue). All forecasters have the option to adjust future months before they begin if they wish (post new numbers).

Note -- have added BlunderStorm's entry which I overlooked (made the table from page one thinking all the entries were there, oops) -- tied seasonals are listed in order received.

 

FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June __ July _ August _ Sept __ Oct _ Nov-Dec

___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 ____ 6 ____ 12 ___ 16  ___ 10 ____ 2 ____ 100

 

SRRTA22 __________________ 22 _9 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 _ 3 2 1 

Roger Smith ________________21 15 7 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 4 3 2 __ 7 5 3 __ 5 4 2 _ 1 1 0

Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0

Orangeburgwx ______________ 19 9 4 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 4 2 1 __ 3 1 1 _ 1 0 0 

RJay ______________________ 19 9 3 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0

jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0

Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 ____100 __ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 3 2 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 0 0 0

mryanwilkes ________________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 3 2 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0

BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0

UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 5 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0

NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0

___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 1 _ 1 0 0

___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0

snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0

ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 1 _ 1 1 0

jburns _____________________15 8 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 (Jul 210 rev)

crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0

cobalt _____________________14 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0

a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 ____100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0

___ NHC mid-range _________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 0.5_0 0 0

Yoda ______________________13 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0

OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 ____ 100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 5 2 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0

pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 ____ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0

_______________________________________________________________________

Contest means ___16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2__3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5__2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0

(Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)

[Roger Smith]

Our consensus from 24 forecasts (not including the NHC mid-range but closer to top of their range) is for a fairly average season by recent standards. The contest normal is derived from data since 1989 and is boosted by one due to the out-of-season May storm. But in general terms, the consensus looks for a somewhat more active early season (July in particular has higher numbers than average) and a somewhat flat end of the season (October shows this tendency).  

[ncforecaster89]

The trends so far aren't as favorable for as active a start to the season, as I originally anticipated; such as a June hurricane. Unless I see a moderation of the current atmospheric conditions, I will likely adjust my July projections.  

Going through, and updating, my past research into June & July climatology, thought it'd be interesting to share that a surprisingly high percentage of seasons (49.7%) didn't have a single TS develop during both of those two consecutive months.  That said, I don't expect we get through both months without at least one TS formation.   

[ncforecaster89]

Here's a tweet from my Twitter account (@tbrite89) on June 1, sharing numbers of all known TS/H/MH formations dating back to 1851:

Hurricaneseason2018 just officially began. Thought I’d share updated statistical research into #June TS activity for the NATL basin (1851-2017):

1) 94 tropical storm formations (1 every 1.78 years)

2) 33 hurricanes (1 per 5.1 years)

3) 2 “major” hurricanes (1 per 83.5 years)

Will add last occurrence of each:

1) TS = 2017 x 2

2) H = 2012 (Chris)

3) MH = 1966 (Alma)

[ncforecaster89]

Revising "July" down to 2/1/0.  Won't be surprised if we get less activity than that.

[Roger Smith]

June's actual count was 0 0 0.

Scoring will be max of 4.0 points for pcbjr and afewUniversesbelownormal, also NHC mid-range.

3.5 points awarded to 1 0 0 (Blunder Storm, snowlover2, crownweather, cobalt, Yoda, OSUmetstud, and Contest Normal). 

3.0 points awarded to 1 1 0 (NCforecaster89, Orangeburgwx)

2.7 points for 1.6 0.5 0.0 (Contest mean)

2.5 points go to 2 0 0 forecasts (RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman, jburns)

2.0 points for 2 1 0 forecasts (SRRTA22, Roger Smith, jackstraw, jbamafanwx, UIWWildthing, NorthArlington101, hlcater, NCskywarn, also Consensus)

0.5 points for 3 1 0 forecast (Stebo)

0.0 points for 3 2 0 forecast (mryanwilkes)

[Roger Smith]

Have been on the road for ten days but I'm thinking July will be 2/2/0 ... let me know if that seems right.

If so, the scoring (out of 6 possible points) using the half-strength deductions that apply to shoulder months (not ASO) will be (with June points added in brackets after each name)

2 2 0 ___ 6.0 ___ ncskywarn (8.0) 

3 2 0 ___ 5.5 ___ SRRTA22 (7.5)

2 1 0 ___ 5.5 ___ pcbjr (9.5) ... blunder Storm, Cobalt, Yoda (all 9.0), NCforecaster89 (8.5), Consensus (7.5)

2.4 1 0.2 _ 5.2 __ Contest mean (7.9)

3 1 0 ___ 5.0 ___ snowlover2 (8.5) ... RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman (all 7.5) ... NorthArlington101 (7.0) ...Stebo (5.5)

1 1 0 ___ 5.0 ___ jburns (7.5), Roger Smith (7.0)

3 2 1 ___ 5.0 ___ crownweather (8.5), jbamafanwx (7.0)

3 1 1 ___ 4.5 ___ UIWwildthing, jackstraw and hlcater (all 6.5) ... mryanwilkes (4.5)

2 0 0 ___ 4.5 ___ Orangeburgwx (7.5)

1 0 0 ___ 4.0 ___ AfewUniv b n and NHC mid-range (both 8.0) ... OSUmetstud and Contest Normal (7.5)

Leading total score so far is 9.5 out of a possible 10 for pcbjr, followed by 9.0 for blunder storm, cobalt and Yoda.

NCforecaster89, crownweather and snowlover2 have 8.5 points.

on to August which accounts for 12 points, and errors are now full strength deductions until Nov-Dec.

[yoda]

Do subtropical storms count if the storm never becomes tropical?  I am guessing so.. just wondering

[yoda]

19 hours ago, yoda said:

Do subtropical storms count if the storm never becomes tropical?  I am guessing so.. just wondering

Debby became tropical... so I guess the point is moot

[hlcater]

On 8/7/2018 at 1:24 PM, yoda said:

Do subtropical storms count if the storm never becomes tropical?  I am guessing so.. just wondering

Yes. Subtrops that never go tropical are still named and counted in post-season analysis.

[Roger Smith]

I'm wondering how many Augusts have performed worse than this one at 2/0/0 which looks rather likely to be the final count. 

You might have to go back to those low count years around 1910. 

If 2/0/0 holds up, then these will be the scores (and they are generally not a pretty sight) out of 12 possible points. Updates also through June, July and August combined.

2 1 0 __ 11.0 __ hlcater (new total Jun-Jul-Aug 17.5)

3 1 1 ___ 9.0 __ snowlover 2 (JJA 17.5), UIWWildthing (JJA 15.5) 

3 2 1 ___ 7.0 __ Yoda (JJA 16.0), crownweather (JJA 15.5), NCforecaster89 (JJA 15.5), ncskywarn (JJA 15.0),

_ _ _ ___________ afewUniv b n (JJA 15.0), NHC mid-range (JJA 15.0), jburns (JJA 14.5), Stebo (JJA 12.5).

4 2 0 ___ 6.0 __ pcbjr (JJA 15.5), SRRTA22 (JJA 13.5)

3.7/2.2/1_5.2 __ Contest mean (JJA 13.1)

4 2 1 ___ 5.0 __ cobalt (JJA 14.0), blunder storm (JJA 14.0), contest normal (JJA 12.5), consensus, (JJA 12.5),

_ _ _ ___________ NorthArlington101 (JJA12.0), jbamafanwx (JJA 12.0), jackstraw (JJA 11.5)

4 2 2 ___ 3.0 __ Rtd208 (JJA 10.5)

5 2 0 ___ 3.0 __ OSUmetstud (JJA 10.5)

3 3 2 ___ 2.0 __ jaxjagman (JJA 9.5)

4 3 1 ___ 2.0 __ RJay (JJA 9.5), mryanwilkes (JJA 6.5)

4 3 2 ___ 0.0 __ Roger Smith (JJA 7.0)

7 5 2 ___ 0.0 __ Orangeburgwx (JJA 7.5)

 

These scores will be adjusted if any further tropical storm activity occurs in August, or confirmed around September 1st if not. 

[BlunderStorm]

Come on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX! I'm counting on you to become Florence within 24 hours! Note: It's almost certainly a fish storm with some minor impacts on Cape Verde. I see nothing wrong in rooting for it at least the way I see it. Of course if it were on course for land I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about its development.

[Roger Smith]

Just for clarification, the contest rules state that storms that begin their life cycle in a given month then go on to count in that month regardless of when they begin the higher stages, but I always score both ways so people can compare. It has often happened in past contests that an Aug 30 or 31 storm becomes a hurricane in early September (all counting for August).

As to the timing of the named storm portion, that has been based on EDT in the past contests, not UTC. That effectively means that 03z is the cutoff for this system (No. 6) to count in August. If it isn't a tropical storm by 03z, its further development goes into September. Classification as T.D. Six would not change the timing. 

I can't see anyone being adversely affected by Florence hitting the books for August so I think we're all rooting for this -- most scores would gain about 2 or 3 points. 

[Roger Smith]

The clock has run out on TD6 as a potential named storm in August, the 03z advisory maintains it as a tropical depression, so its future exploits (if any) will belong to September. 

The scores listed above will now become confirmed for the contest to date. 

[BlunderStorm]

On 8/30/2018 at 11:50 PM, BlunderStorm said:

Come on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX! I'm counting on you to become Florence within 24 hours! Note: It's almost certainly a fish storm with some minor impacts on Cape Verde. I see nothing wrong in rooting for it at least the way I see it. Of course if it were on course for land I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about its development.

...

[Roger Smith]

Don't feel bad about that post, the models had Florence turning north long before where the storm is now. And the original set of projections was a maximum intensity of strong tropical storm. Florence was kind enough to wait for the calendar to flip over before getting a name, so far I don't have any reason to issue two scoring tables. 

September is only one third over and already the count is 4/3/1 with a chance to go 4/3/2 or (outside chance) 4/3/3 if either Helene or Isaac make major hurricane status.

The season is now up to 9/5/1 and could go to 9/5/2 or 9/5/3 with the existing storms. 

It seems like a wide-open contest at this point as we could go back into slumber mode, or keep up this new pace, or something in between. 

My habit is to start posting full scoring on a provisional basis once September is known, based on our consensus for Oct and Nov-Dec and then adjusting the scoring table whenever reality changes that consensus. So by mid-October you should have a pretty good idea how you stand in this contest. 

[Roger Smith]

With Joyce the count goes to 5/3/1 but now has little chance of increasing in the major category as Helene failed to reach that level and Isaac never got much past minimal cat-1.

The seasonal count is now 10/5/1. See previous post for other comments about how the contest wraps up into October. 

[Roger Smith]

Contest final scoring -- Nov 16th edit has been verified as final count

As of Oct 29th 00z, the October count has increased to 3 2 1, as Oscar reached hurricane status. The previous write-up in this space was getting unreadable with so many edits, so basically, what we have here now is the scoring for what we know has happened (15 8 2) with the assumption that current 0 0 0 for Nov - Dec will hold (later edit -- it did hold and this is therefore declared to be the final contest results).

... The contest rules give all changes of status to the month when any named storm begins its life cycle. This so far affected only one storm, Leslie, which became a tropical storm in September and a hurricane in October. An alternate scoring table will be created at the end of the contest to show scores based on the other system we could use, assigning status to months when achieved. This would change September to 7 3 1 and October now to 3 3 1. Notes on alternate system scoring can be found after this scoring table. But this is the official contest scoring, the second table is just for your information. 

Table is shown in rank order, the non-forecaster scores (including NHC) have ranks that do not affect ranks of the lower contest entrants, and those additional ranks are shown with an asterisk. They can be tied with another rank but that tie is not shown for the forecaster involved (see 1st place for example). 

 

FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June ___ July _ August __ Sept ___ Oct _ Nov-Dec __ TOTAL (rank)

___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 _____ 6 ____ 12 _____ 16  ___ 10 ____ 2 ______ 100

Predictions in black, scores in red 

__ Scores based on _________ 15 8 2 50 ________ 000 4 _ 220 6 __ 200 12 _741 16_ 321 10_ 000 2 ____ 100

 

___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 48___100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 421 5 _ 64115 _ 32110 _ 0002.0 ___ 87.5 ( 1*)

___ NHC mid-range _________13 7 2.5 45.6_100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53112 _320.59.6_0002.0 ___84.2 ( 1*)

a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 45___100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53112 _ 32110 _ 0002.0 ___ 84.0 ( 1 )

UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 45___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 311 9 _ 65114 _ 210 7 _ 0002.0 ___ 83.5 ( 2 )

jburns _____________________15 8 4 47___100 __2002.5 _ 1105.0 _ 321 7 _ 54212 _ 211 8 _ 100 1.5 ___ 83.0 ( 3 )

snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 43___100 __1003.5 _ 3105.0 _ 311 9 _ 62112 _ 210 7 _ 0002.0 ___ 81.5 ( 4 )

___ Contest mean __ see below ______46.3 _________ 2.8 ___ 5.3 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 8.6 ___ 1.7 ____ 81.0 ( 5*)

BlunderStorm _______________17 9 4 43___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 54212 _ 32110 _ 100 1.5 ___80.5 ( 5 )

NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 48___100 __1103.0 _ 210 5.5_ 321 7 _ 421 7 _ 211 8 _ 100 1.5____ 80.0 ( 6 )

___ Consensus ____________ 17 8 3 46___100 __2102.0 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 53211 _ 211 8 _ 100 1.5___ 79.0 ( 7*)

crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 47___100 __1003.5 _ 3215.0 _ 321 7 _ 421 7 _ 210 7 _ 0002.0 ___ 78.5 ( 7 )

NorthArlington101 ___________17 8 4 44___100 __2102.0 _ 3105.0 _ 421 5 _ 53211 _ 211 8 _ 0002.0 ___ 77.0 ( t-8 )

Yoda ______________________13 6 2 44___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 321 7 _ 521 10_ 110 5 _ 0002.0 ___ 77.0 ( t-8 )

jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 43___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 332 2 _ 53211 _ 320 9 _ 0002.0 ___ 74.5 (10)

Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 41___100 __3100.5 _ 3105.0 _ 321 7 _ 53211 _ 211 8 _ 1001.5 ___ 74.0 (t-11)

hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 46___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 21011 _ 320 2 _ 521 7 _ 1001.5 ___ 74.0 (t-11)

ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 41__ 100 __2102.0 _ 2206.0 _ 321 7 _ 432 8 _ 221 9 _ 1101.0 ___ 74.0 (t-11)

Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 38___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 422 3 _ 64214 _ 211 8 _ 0002.0 ___ 72.5 (14)

cobalt _____________________14 6 2 46___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 321 3 _ 210 7 _ 1001.5 ___ 71.5 (15)

RJay ______________________19 9 3 38___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 431 2 _ 53211 _ 320 9 _ 1001.5 ____69.0 (16)

jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 35__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3215.0 _ 421 5 _ 54212 _ 211 8 _ 1001.5 ___ 68.5 (17)

mryanwilkes _______________ 17 9 4 43___ 100 __3200.0 _ 3114.5 _ 431 2 _ 53211 _ 100 3 _ 0002.0 ___ 65.5 (18)

Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 29__100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 421 5 _ 84214 _ 220 8 _ 0002.0 ___ 64.5 (t-19)

OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 40___ 100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 520 3 _ 421 7 _ 110 5 _ 0002.0 ___ 64.5 (t-19)

Orangeburgwx ______________19 9 4 36___100 __1103.0 _ 2004.5 _ 752 0 _ 421 7 _ 311 9 _ 1001.5 ___ 61.0 (21)

pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 33___ 100 __0004.0 _ 2105.5 _ 420 6 _ 321 3 _ 100 3 _ 0002.0 ___ 56.5 (22)

SRRTA22 __________________22 9 4 18___ 100 __2102.0 _ 3205.5 _ 420 6 _ 431 9 _ 532 5 _ 321 0 ____ 45.5 (23)

Roger Smith _______________ 21 15 7 00__ 100 __2102.0 _ 1105.0 _ 432 0 _ 75312 _ 542 3 _ 1101.0 ___ 23.0 (24)

________________________________________________________________________________

Contest means _____________16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2

_________________________________________________________________3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5

__________________________________________________________________________________2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0

________scores ________________  47.8 ___________2.8 ___ 5.3 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 8.6 ___ 1.7 ______ 82.5 (t-3*)

(Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)

 _______________________________________________________________________________

The alternate scoring (assigning status changes to months, applies to Leslie becoming a hurricane Oct 2) is now complete in terms of differentials as only Oct and Nov monthly scores are changed due to Leslie's history of status changes. The alternate scoring is based on Sep 7 3 1 and Oct 3 3 1. 

Changes in alternate scoring will only happen if the main scoring table changes due to activity in Nov-Dec. The differentials will remain as they are here, applied to that new total scoring. I have retained the old list from the 1 0 0 scoring assumption, in case it comes back into play. That's below this new alternate scoring list, in smaller type. 

 

Rank (main contest scoring) __ details of alternate scoring with rank in that

(1) ___ NHC mid-range stays at 84.2 (1st in this system)

 1. ___ AfewUniv b n stays level, total 84.0 (1st for contest entrants in this system)

 2. ___ UIWWildthing loses four, total 79.5  (5th in this alternate system)

 3. ___ jburns loses three, total 80.0 (tied 3rd)

 4. ___ snowlover2 stays level, total 82.0 (2nd in this alternate system) 

 5. ___ Blunder Storm loses two, total 78.5 (tied 6th) 

 6. ___ NCForecaster89 stays level, total 80.0 (tied 3rd in this system)

 7. ___ Crownweather stays level, total 78.5 (tied 6th)

t8. ___ NorthArlington101 loses one, total 76.0 (9th)

t8. ___ Yoda stays level, total 77.0 (8th)

10. ___ jaxjagman stays level, total 74.5 (11th)

t11. __ Stebo loses one, total 73.0 (13th)

t11. __ hlcater gains one, total 75.0 (10th)

t11. __ ncskywarn stays level, total 74.0 (12th)

14. __ Rtd208 loses three, total 69.5 (15th)

15. __ Cobalt stays level, total 71.5 (14th)

16. __ RJay stays level, total 69.0 (16th)

17. __ jbamafanwx loses three, total 65.5 (17th)

18. __mryanwilkes loses two, total 63.5 (19th) 

t19. __OSUmetstud stays level, total 64.5 (18th)

t19. __Jackstraw loses two, total 62.5 (20th)

21. __ Orangeburgwx stays level, total 61.0 (21st)

22. __ pcbjr loses one, total 55.5 (23rd)

23. __ SRRTA22 gains two, total 57.5 (22nd)

24. __ Roger Smith stays level at 23.0 (24th)

 

A more complete accounting of changes will appear in the final alternate table.

Note: the contest official scoring is in the table above this section, this is FYI only. 

(based on 1 0 0 in case we need to resume this version ...)

 

1. ___ UIWWildthing loses four, total 81.0  (tied 2nd in this alternate system)

 2. ___ Blunder Storm loses two, total 81.0 (tied 2nd)

 3. ___ jburns loses three, total 79.5 (tied 5ith)

 4. ___ snowlover2 stays level, total 82.0 (first in this alternate system) 

 5. ___ AfewUniv b n stays level, total 80.5 (4th in this system)

 6. ___ NCForecaster89 stays level, total 79.5 (tied 5th in this system)

 7. ___ NorthArlington101 loses one, total 78.5 (7th)

 8. ___ Stebo loses one, total 76.5 (9th)

 9. ___ hlcater gains one, total 77.5 (8th)

t10. __Crownweather stays level, total 76.0 (t-10th)

t10. __jaxjagman stays level, total 76.0 (t-10th)

12. __ Rtd208 loses three, total 72.0 (15th)

t13. __ Yoda stays level, total 73.5 (t-12th)

t13. __ ncskywarn stays level, total 73.5 (t-12th)

t13. __ RJay stays level, total 73.5 (t-12th)

[Roger Smith]

Contest update: 

The previous post contained provisional scoring that was based on consensus forecasts for October (2 1 1 ) and Nov-Dec (1 0 0 ). This has since been adjusted to 3 2 1 for Oct. (edit 28th).

As of the last hour, the October provisional is the actual count with Michael attaining major status and Nadine a new tropical storm. The current seasonal total is 14 7 2. (edit this has now reached 15 8 2) ... The operating provisional seasonal total is therefore 15 7 2 (edit this has now reached 16 8 2). 

As explained in the post above, September went to 7 4 1 when Leslie attained hurricane intensity on Oct 2 (contest rules keep all status changes with the month of first naming). However, an alternate scoring table will be provided with the status changes in their actual months. That would make September 7 3 1 and October 2 2 1. (edit now 3 3 1) The effects on the top seven (since expanded to 15) ranked scores are shown below the scoring table but that table is the official contest scoring (estimated for now). 

From now to end of contest, all changes to the scoring will be based on actual rather than projected events with the exception that we will carry 1 0 0 for Nov-Dec until such time as it either becomes exceeded or appears more likely to turn out 0 0 0 (a change that I might make after Nov 15th if it seemed appropriate). Then the contest runs officially to end of December. 

 

[jburns]

On 9/25/2018 at 4:40 AM, Roger Smith said:

2. jcburns loses two, total 82.5 (fifth in this alternate system)

I protest!!!!!!!

[Roger Smith]

Oscar has been named in the central subtropical Atlantic. This storm brings the October count to 3 1 1 (3 2 1 alternate system) and the seasonal count to 15 7 2.

(edit 28th ... Oct 3 2 1, 3 3 1 alternate system ... seasonal 15 8 2). 

Based on this change and keeping the Nov-Dec provisional value of 1 0 0 the scoring table three posts back has been updated, including for the alternate scoring (see table for further details). 

(original text) The leader remains snowlover2, UIWWildthing moves into second place. Jburns is now third and NCForecaster89 is fourth in the contest scoring. 

(added Oct 29 03z) _ As Oscar has become a hurricane, the contest scoring will see UIWWildthing taking over first and Blunder Storm moving into second with jburns in third and Snowlover2 falling to fourth. Contest Normal moves by all of them into top spot including non-participants. This would be assuming Nov-Dec then produced a tropical storm of its own. Without that, the scores would just be closer but same order of finish. So the contest results may come down to what happens in Nov-Dec, the scores for that can only change slightly but the seasonal scores can change more. If there were by some chance two or three named storms in November, as has happened infrequently in the past, some major changes to the seasonal scores would occur and this might alter the standings. 

These forecasters could still have a perfect seasonal forecast, now that Oscar becomes a non-major hurricane (now we stand at 15 8 2) ...

Contest Normal (16 8 3) can get there if Oscar goes major and one tropical storm occurs in Nov-Dec (not reaching hurricane status).

Consensus (17 8 3) can become perfect if Oscar goes major and two tropical storms occur in Nov-Dec (not reaching hurricane status). 

UIWWildthing (17 9 3) can get to a perfect seasonal if Oscar goes major and two more storms occur, one becoming a non-major hurricane, or if Oscar stays non-major and the next hurricane does go major (with another tropical storm also).

Blunder Storm, myranwilkes and Jaxjagman (each at 17 9 4) can get to a perfect seasonal if Oscar goes major and two more storms occur, one a hurricane that goes major.

A few others can theoretically get to a perfect forecast but they need either 3 hurricanes all going major, or four more named storms including one hurricane (RJay). 

I would need most of next season added on to get out of the deep hole where my seasonal score is currently -8 (adjusted to zero). (ooops). 

[Roger Smith]

As there seems to be little indication of further tropical storm activity, I have revised the provisional scoring to the assumption of a 15 8 2 seasonal and 0 0 0 Nov-Dec finish.

The old scoring for 16 8 2 and 1 0 0 can still be seen in the post, located several posts back in the thread and edited today.

This places AfewUniversesbelownormal in first place with UIWWildThing just 0.5 behind. However, as I assigned monthlies to AfewUniv (as with Contest Normal and NHC who also scored higher than any of our forecasts) if this is the final result I would say that UIWWildThing has a claim on the contest win with actual monthly forecasts supplied. Jburns has moved back into third and snowlover2 is at fourth in this update. BlunderStorm is fifth and NCforecaster89 is sixth. 

I have an excel file created to back up the scoring, which I will post at the official end of the contest. Just in case there is a Nov-Dec storm, the old 16 8 2 / 1 0 0 scoring system is available in the scoring tables, in smaller print below the current versions. Alternate scoring for Leslie's status by months can also be seen in this scoring post. That would change the order around a little, but the contest scoring rules are the basis for the main scoring table. 

[Roger Smith]

With no further activity in Nov-Dec, the contest is declared closed and the official results are shown in the edited table above (a few posts back). 

None of us managed to beat either the contest normal (87.5) or the mid-range of the NHC annual prediction (84.2), however, for that one, I assigned monthly values based on a pro-rating of the normal values. The same is true for contest winner "AfewUniversesbelownormal" (84.0) who only supplied a seasonal count (unlike all other entrants). As both UIWwildthing (83.5) and JBurns (83.0) had full entries and scored within 1.0 points of that arbitrary score, I am considering them to be joint contest winners also. Snowlover2, Blunder Storm, and NCForecaster89 also managed to beat our group consensus which finished in seventh place overall (lower ranks not affected by that placing). 

The best seasonal forecast (actual count was 15 8 2) came from NCForecaster89 who scored 48/50 for 15 7 3. JBurns scored 47 for 15 8 4. 

The best monthly total (maximum possible 50) was 39 for the assigned values of the winner "aFewUniversesBelowNormal" but in terms of actual forecasts made, 38.5 for JBurns and snowlover2. 

The season will likely be remembered mainly for Michael and Florence, rather than an impressive number of storms.