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May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE


CT Rain
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I'm wondering per present rad evolution if this early activity rapidly sweeping E that's just west of the Capital District of eastern NY may not make it much farther then NW zone before it becomes a residual band of mid level debris...  

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59 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Sam L is apparently not happy with SPC's choice of the "d" word.

what's the big deal (assuming it is a big deal to the severe weenies). 90+% of the general public has no clue what a derecho even is, including myself.

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Well ...anywho...if that activity holds together, you can wack the top 1/3 or so of that hashed enhanced S ...  Sweeping an atmospheric processing cluster of convective rains through between 11 and 1pm is precisely and perfectly wrong -  SPC even mentioned that actually ... Lot of people left holding hope-hardons on this one...

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7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

BWW in Shrewsbury off of rt.9 has good views to the west 

pm me if you have any questions man 

Looking on Google Streetview, that's a great view! The only question is whether or not I can make it in time as it's a hour and half drive from here. I might end up further east even though line should be stronger further west just because I can't leave until 4:30-5 pm.

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24 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Could use recommendations for a good viewing spot anywhere east of downtown Worcester for photography... if that's possible lol.

Route 9 E toward/thru Shrewsbury has rolling hills ...the top of which have parking lots that pan the western horizon -

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 That line that came across the Berkshires fell apart over Franklin County.   Got about three minutes of moderate rain in downtown Greenfield, sprinkle at my house. No thunder, no lightning, no wind.

I mentioned it may fall apart a 1/2 hour ago ...and it really needs to continue to do so or it could 86 folks for the Pike N... It's also moving fast and sat has it clearing abruptly afterward so it may be 'overcome -able'

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mcd0423.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1043 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

   Areas affected...Central and northern Pennsylvania into southern New
   York and southwest New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 151543Z - 151815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop over the next several
   hours from central and northern Pennsylvania into southern New York,
   continuing into southern New England by late afternoon. Severe wind
   and hail are likely across all areas, with a few tornadoes possible
   mainly from northeast Pennsylvania into southern New England. As
   such, one or more severe and/or tornado watches will be needed
   today.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front across northwest PA
   into OH, with a pre-frontal trough across central NY into central
   PA. A progressive area of early-day thunderstorms has produced
   outflow across much of southern NY to near the northern PA border.

   Satellite imagery shows strong heating is occurring across the warm
   sector, with a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north
   across PA and NJ, and likely into southern NY later today. In
   addition, the aforementioned outflow will continue to modify, while
   likely maintaining some degree of enhanced low-level wind shear this
   afternoon.

   Thunderstorms currently exist along the cold front from western PA
   into western NY, and should continue a gradual increase in intensity
   as the air mass destabilizes to the east. In addition to these
   storms, other storms are expected to form near the surface trough,
   and perhaps atop the old outflow boundary. Deep-layer shear will
   favor cellular activity away from the cold front, while a mixed
   storm mode including bows or embedded supercells are possible along
   the front. Strong heating and steep lapse rates aloft will favor
   large hail, with an increasing damaging wind by the time storms
   organize into a line. Any cellular activity will be capable of large
   hail, perhaps very large, along with a few tornadoes where low-level
   shear is maximized.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 05/15/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   PBZ...
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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mentioned it may fall apart a 1/2 hour ago ...and it really needs to continue to do so or it could 86 folks for the Pike N... It's also moving fast and sat has it clearing abruptly afterward so it may be 'overcome -able'

Yeah...this is the turd in the punchbowl if you are looking for severe N of the pike.  Destructive sun this morning is really fooking it up.

Maybe it clears out...

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