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May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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ct_yankee

ct_yankee

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 2:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan showed video of the time lapse at BDL. It clearly showed that funnel in the time lapse

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I definitely saw that feature, but from a great distance while driving in heavy traffic - couldn't get a clear photo of it. I did wonder briefly if it was a funnel, but it looked more like a wall-cloud type deal or even an outflow feature from where I was.

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WhiteLawns

WhiteLawns

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 1:23 AM, weatherwiz said:

I was thinking that but is that area possible? I would have to get to New Milford and that area was hit really hard...might be traffic on route 7.

 

i may be able to do back roads to Newtown and catch 84 there which is passed where the traffic 

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Sorry never saw this, but yeah the roads from danbury to Brookfield was pretty bad I guess.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 3:02 PM, codfishsnowman said:

so that is a funnel and not scud?

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  On 5/16/2018 at 3:07 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah at first I thought scud, but would have to interrogate it more. Need to see it in reference to the storm. 

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To my eye that looks like a wall cloud, with an inflow tail hanging down to the right. 

The inflow tail forms lower to the ground in response to the fact that the wall cloud/inflow to the storm is ingesting forward flank (cooler/moist) air on that side that has a lower LCL.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 5:25 PM, OceanStWx said:

 

To my eye that looks like a wall cloud, with an inflow tail hanging down to the right. 

The inflow tail forms lower to the ground in response to the fact that the wall cloud/inflow to the storm is ingesting forward flank (cooler/moist) air on that side that has a lower LCL.

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Cool, yeah makes sense there.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 3:15 PM, WhiteLawns said:

Sorry never saw this, but yeah the roads from danbury to Brookfield was pretty bad I guess.

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yeah that whole area is a disaster. West Hartford is typically 50 minutes from Danbury for me and my friend lives like 15-20 minutes north of Danbury. We both made it home at the same time :yikes: 

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

I'm sure this has already been discussed, but can't understate the relevance of EML plumes with respect to significant severe weather in the Northeast. Not only did the 18z ALB sounding sample 7.7 C/km mid-level lapse rates (high-end, historically), but the expansive nature of >7 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates ahead of the entire line of storms yesterday was certainly impressive.

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 7:09 PM, Quincy said:

I'm sure this has already been discussed, but can't understate the relevance of EML plumes with respect to significant severe weather in the Northeast. Not only did the 18z ALB sounding sample 7.7 C/km mid-level lapse rates (high-end, historically), but the expansive nature of >7 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates ahead of the entire line of storms yesterday was certainly impressive.

 

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yeah the extensive coverage of the EML plume was quite impressive and I think definitely underrated...not in terms of how the event produced but just b/c of the historical significance. Those observed lapse rates too on the 18z sounding are striking. That's pretty extreme stuff. Even 6/1/11 I think only had lapse rates around 7.5...don't think they were above that. I think the only time (could be wrong) that 700-500 lapse rates approached 8 C/KM during a convective event was 7/15/95 when I remember reading they were like 8-8.5. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 7:45 PM, weatherwiz said:

yeah the extensive coverage of the EML plume was quite impressive and I think definitely underrated...not in terms of how the event produced but just b/c of the historical significance. Those observed lapse rates too on the 18z sounding are striking. That's pretty extreme stuff. Even 6/1/11 I think only had lapse rates around 7.5...don't think they were above that. I think the only time (could be wrong) that 700-500 lapse rates approached 8 C/KM during a convective event was 7/15/95 when I remember reading they were like 8-8.5. 

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And I know 700-500 mb is what we look at, but oftentimes it's just having some layer within the sounding of steep lapse rates. Because an EML plume begins as surface based out on the High Plains, and gradually becomes more elevated as it moves east, as elevation drops towards sea level.

On 14.12z sounding out around IA, the base of that EML was more like 800 mb, or even 850 mb. So sometimes it doesn't quite line up with our conventions.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 8:21 PM, OceanStWx said:

And I know 700-500 mb is what we look at, but oftentimes it's just having some layer within the sounding of steep lapse rates. Because an EML plume begins as surface based out on the High Plains, and gradually becomes more elevated as it moves east, as elevation drops towards sea level.

On 14.12z sounding out around IA, the base of that EML was more like 800 mb, or even 850 mb. So sometimes it doesn't quite line up with our conventions.

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It's funny you mention this because I've been thinking about this and I wonder if my thinking was incorrect. I thought that EML's did originate aloft like at the 10,000' to 18,000' level (but then again isn't that like the surface for the source regions of EML's?)

Anyways...so we could see an EML plume that's like from 700-600mb but the 700-500mb lapse rate alone may not properly portray that? 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 8:26 PM, weatherwiz said:

It's funny you mention this because I've been thinking about this and I wonder if my thinking was incorrect. I thought that EML's did originate aloft like at the 10,000' to 18,000' level (but then again isn't that like the surface for the source regions of EML's?)

Anyways...so we could see an EML plume that's like from 700-600mb but the 700-500mb lapse rate alone may not properly portray that? 

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Like check the ABQ 12z sounding from today. What we would consider the EML is actually just their mixed layer from the day before.

Gradually that moves east, and as elevation drops it gets higher in the atmosphere. And convective overturning dissipates the magnitude some as well. Obviously the deeper the EML the better for the Northeast, but yes, you could see a chunk only 100 mb deep leftover by the time it reaches here (which gets very hard to ID as remnant EML).

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 8:32 PM, OceanStWx said:

Like check the ABQ 12z sounding from today. What we would consider the EML is actually just their mixed layer from the day before.

Gradually that moves east, and as elevation drops it gets higher in the atmosphere. And convective overturning dissipates the magnitude some as well. Obviously the deeper the EML the better for the Northeast, but yes, you could see a chunk only 100 mb deep leftover by the time it reaches here (which gets very hard to ID as remnant EML).

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This is so helpful! I've tried to search a bit more on EML's since I never truly understood how to explain the origin of them. I'm also going to do a presentation on this event at our Tristate weather conference in the fall and wanted to briefly explain EML origin and this totally helps. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 8:34 PM, weatherwiz said:

This is so helpful! I've tried to search a bit more on EML's since I never truly understood how to explain the origin of them. I'm also going to do a presentation on this event at our Tristate weather conference in the fall and wanted to briefly explain EML origin and this totally helps. 

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This dude might be able to help

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 9:32 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

This dude might be able to help

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1

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:lol: 

 

i know. I’ve read all his stuff. There were just some things I was trying to explore that went behind the paper. I already have them   Credited in my presentation 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 5/16/2018 at 8:11 PM, weatherwiz said:

Friends house in Newtown 

3A3C0546-F036-4461-8AB2-316D75D2246B.thumb.jpeg.f0c13570ab3f04a449ccdd6893e83a5d.jpegD9285C34-6865-4275-94D2-65609127BADC.thumb.jpeg.1357366bbba8dd9ff4d1df7bdb376dfb.jpeg

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It is definitely true and higher end when these storm events hit the more populated areas of New England.  Sucks that your friend had that come through his roof.  I look at that and think we've had some high end wind damage events that may look similar over the past year up north, but it's one thing to have so many people affected vs. up here they are still cleaning up the mountain bike trails.  Woods vs. residential...the impact difference is staggering.

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