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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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Tendency for high heights in the Arctic circle has been strong. If this holds, favors a lot of Atlantic recurving storms. 2009,2010,2011,2014,2015

Central Atlantic ridge at 850mb was strongest ever this Winter, up to +30% of mean average (Dec-Feb)! It reversed March with -NAO and has generally been NAO driven through April and early May. My guess is it would come back for the Summer. 

1851_2017_allstorms_sm.jpg

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El Nino is fading.. get ready for a spike in hurricane activity. 12-13 before, now 14-16 I think.   Hadley Cells are really far north so look for SE, US possible hits. 
Niño is fading? What? The signal for an event becomes stronger each day, plus the very cold MDR will act to suppress the season. If both manage to not affect the season, the EPAC will hurt it anyway

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Both the GFS and the Euro have a AEW that teeters on the edge of being a TD for a couple of days this week before getting ripped a part.  

Would be interesting to see something this far east this early in the season even if it's weak.

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EPj3zSX.jpg

 

There is a small well defined vortex, the kind that's usually underestimated by guidance.  95L would be a TD already maybe even a TS if there was a recon.    Still has another 24-36hrs before the environment becomes too hostile.

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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few
hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again.  Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but
the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the
convective cloud tops.  That may not be applicable in this case
given Beryl's extremely small size.  By disregarding the width
constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt.
As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.

Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly
westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt.  Mid-level
ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on
a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period.
An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl
becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level
anticyclone.  Some of the track models have already shown a
northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated
NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better-
performing models.  This new forecast is not too different from the
previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the
various model consensus aids.

Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a
few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level
anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days.
Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some
increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating
deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the
shear isolated to the cyclone's scale.  Given that, the NHC
intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance
through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been
depicting in previous forecasts.  Needless to say, it's becoming
more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it
reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours.  The cyclone is
also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a
96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast,
showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4.  By that point,
either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely
lead to dissipation.  But we shall see.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through
the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing.  However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too
early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur.
Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser
Antilles as soon as tonight.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 10.7N  46.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 11.3N  47.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 12.2N  50.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 13.3N  53.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 14.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 16.2N  64.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 18.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands
by tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West.  Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend
and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.
Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean
Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough
until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central
Caribbean Sea.

Beryl is a compact hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

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Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch.

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On ‎7‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 8:51 AM, jbenedet said:

Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch.

Damn impressive JB, models I just looked at show a tropical storm of an intensity near 50-knots hitting the mid Cape Cod region, with Nantucket receiving winds over 55mph

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On 7/17/2018 at 3:02 PM, Amped said:

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CFS looks the best and it still isn't good. Going to have a lot of trouble getting anything from Africa or the Caribbean this year.

With the developing EL Nino, this tropical season looks like a big dud.

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I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in  middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva...

1000x1000.jpg

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On 7/21/2018 at 10:53 AM, jbenedet said:

I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in  middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva...

1000x1000.jpg

Probably because of its non-tropical nature and that it has frontal features. Even a subtropical cyclone must be non-frontal to classify.

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Speaking of EL Nino, here's a copy of a tweet I shared recently:

Latest seasonal update from CSU; via @philklotzbach, is close to Avg of last three #Elnino #hurricane seasons:

2006 = 10/5/2

2009 = 9/3/2

2015 = 11/4/2

Avg. = 10/4/2

USA landfalls:

2006 = 3/0/0

2009 = 2/0/0

2015 = 2/0/0

5 of 7 TS strikes outside of Aug-Oct peak, 0 #hurricanes

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