Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Saugerties storm has textbook flying eagle radar presentation. Best in Northeast since 2011, easily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Look at that line of supercells in the Hudson Valley. Holy ****ing ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 THat may be a TDS on the Liberty storm. Hard to tell but we'll know in a few scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Radar indicating tornado debris, it’s gonna be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 And meanwhile, back in Lewisburg PA, our QLCS/Derecho is going APE****. Lest we get distracted by the once-a-decade supercell train going on in the mid-Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Radar indicating tornado debris, it’s gonna be bad For which one... the one North or West of Poughkeepsie?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: And meanwhile, back in Lewisburg PA, our QLCS/Derecho is going APE****. Lest we get distracted by the once-a-decade supercell train going on in the mid-Hudson Valley. Yes that line is starting to look serious! Thank god I purchased renter's insurance today I had this feeling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Those are the most intense NY state supercells in May since the 1998 high risk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those are the most intense NY state supercells in May since the 1998 high risk day. Thoughts for Western Suffolk? I think we get strong, but not severe, still early in the season for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 The already put out a SWS for NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Alright, latest update as I can see it: -our best developed sup, the storm that started wrapping-up near Saugerties and which looked textbook for a while, just hit some higher terrain and occluded a touch and my guess will be is about to cycle again when it hits the Housatonic valley near Sheffield. - the sup behind it, near Kingston, seems is flashing low-level rotation off and on. Could flare at any time. - the monster HP storm over the Catskills is about to drop into the valley where winds are backed, and I expect a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: For which one... the one North or West of Poughkeepsie?? Livingston manor. Just weakened when it hit the higher terrain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Probably close to max instability now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Hail Reports 845 275 2 SSW CLERMONT COLUMBIA NY 4206 7384 (ALY) 1850 200 LIVINGSTON MANOR SULLIVAN NY 4190 7483 (BGM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 https://twitter.com/juliancd38/status/996465488480829440?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Current temp 91/DP 71/RH 47% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I rarely become intrigued by severe threats in the coastal Northeast, but this is indubitably a set-up which is more felicitous than most we have seen over the past several years. The novel variable that differentiates the present potential is the rapid diminution of dew points in the mid-levels, the proxy for which is the, "Elevated Mixed Layer," and as such, obviates the development of energy-eroding, lower-intensity, multicellular storms. This enables the proverbial top of the pot to boil over suddenly, such that explosive updrafts can form. We have already seen that. An emerging cold pool, in concert with highly auspicious low and (more importantly) mid-level lapse rates, enhanced lifted indices, CAPE (in other words: sfc based, diurnally elicited instability is present), robust bulk shear of predominately unidirectional nature, all juxtaposed this afternoon. There will be a significant decrease in SB instability over the eastern half of Long Island, and potentially the immediate beaches of NJ. But the vast majority of the area will have a moderate to high probability for strong to severe convection between 6-8pm. This is about as classic as it gets for a widespread wind damage potential, in terms of the preconditioning. Currently 89.2F/72 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Bit surprised they didn't go with a High Risk given what we're seeing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Looks like very close to baseball sized hailstones in that warned cell with broken car windows. 71-72 DBZ is the real deal. Huge hail for this area at TSP overlook in southern Columbia Co. @NWSAlbanypic.twitter.com/kZCgLJOuBk 12:01 PM - 15 May 2018 Lot of cars pulling off with shattered windows 12:08 PM - 15 May 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 As someone who's never gone through a severe weather season in a coastal area, this is the ideal setup for getting severe conditions into the city, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: As someone who's never gone through a severe weather season in a coastal area, this is the ideal setup for getting severe conditions into the city, right? Literally perfect. NW flow downslopes off of higher terrain; westerly flow still downslopes but not as dramatically and a smidge further from the city. You might have a better chance of a tornado with convection along a warm front, particularly late season when the marine influence isn't as strong, but for big hail and big straight line winds today is the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Radar kind of reminds me of both 09/07/98 (Labor Day derecho) and 05/29/95 (supercell/tornado outbreak in New England). The city and boroughs got slammed on both of those days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 This is going to be here sooner than later. The HRRR ended up being more correct on the timing. I'm already started to get some convective debris clouds. The warnings are now out to the PA/NJ border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I mean, I guess on a day like today the NWS can be picky with their warnings, but I would warn that spin up along the line near Narrowsburg NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 And just like that, it's warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 The line is on the move and means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 112 mph gust reported at State College. That can't be right, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Nice inflow again on the previously tornado warned cell now near the 78/81 interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Incoming here... Extremely dark to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Another factor to consider. The main line looks to arrive in the city earlier then previous events that busted. Earlier = better big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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