NJwx85 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Warm fronts this time of year can be the best chance for severe along the coast. East of the Hudson River instability drops like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 New SPC Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 The Euro is really weak with the morning convection. Gets plenty of SBCAPE well up into the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 The severe threat tomorrow looks legit. When was the last time we had a decent EML combined with 50KT midlevel flow during the warm season? We are finally starting to see the steep midlevel lapse rates outside the cold season. The 12z Euro pounds the NW burbs down to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The severe threat tomorrow looks legit. When was the last time we had a decent EML combined with 50KT midlevel flow during the warm season? We are finally starting to see the steep midlevel lapse rates outside the cold season. The 12z Euro pounds the NW burbs down to NYC. it looks similar to may 18 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Pretty decent setup for tomorrow. Shear and cape looks good. Laspe rates being shown by modeling for tomorrow are a rarity around these parts and is what catches my eyes the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 How does the 56 degree SST play in all this. Even 75 degree water in mid summer seems to weaken storms as they approach NYC. The Skew-T is useful, but has been known to fail completely. An example would be Chicago---July 13 or so, 1995. The chart came out of the printer spinning----but nothing happened. Vaguely remember Lake Michigan got into the mix somehow. Anyone remember this and know what happened? The heat reached us July 15 @102, but Chicago was 106, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 long island still has good elevated cape tomorrow evening on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 KDIX The bulk of the convective development in the afternoon just to our northwest and west is forecast to occur with a secondary short wave also tied to near a surface cold front. The arrival of this feature during peak heating combined with ample boundary layer moisture and stronger flow aloft will result in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. It appears the timing of the convection is after 18Z/2PM on Tuesday starting across our western zones. While there are some differences on the evolution of the convection, the wind profiles and instability parameters should favor line segments. The more unidirectional flow above the boundary layer should favor embedded bowing segments. A plume of steeper mid level lapse rates along with ample instability above the freezing level should tend to favor some hail in the stronger updrafts. The development of cold pools however and potential outflows to enhance/focus eastward propagation will tend to locally enhance the wind threat. The SPC has much of our area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon with an enhanced area just to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may be another case of the squall line remaining more intense along the North Shore than the South Shore. I think the severe threat ends at the Hudson River. Areas further East should still get a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 I would expect some convective debris rain around here and for most of the Island. I’ve never bought the big rain totals models like the Euro are showing here; that’ll most likely be over NJ. Hopefully something decent can survive east of Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Plenty of big hail reports around DC today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I think tomorrow has a pretty good derecho shot. If that’s the case even the coast will get in on it. MCS that organized tend to weaken slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Picked up 0.47" of rain for the day. 3 day total 1.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 New Day 1 Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Flash Flood Watch up for most of the Mt. Holly CWA from this afternoon thru late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 30% hatched wind for most of NNJ into lower NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 This has the feels of a severe day today. Sun already burning through the fog here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Temps have a much better jump this morning. Current temp 64/DP 62/RH 93% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 The CAMs are pretty insistent on developing some QLCS spin-ups with the line in PA/NJ, which is consistent with the weak but slightly-backed low-level winds and the tendency for bowing segments driven by the excellent speed shear in the mid levels. The HRRR wants to substantially weaken convection as it comes off the mountains in a Jersey, which is consistent with climo, but I wonder if the EML plume won’t overcome that today. More CAPE then our usual. Of course things will fizzle as soon as they hit the marine layer but that’s more NYC than NJ. All the CAMs are supportive of a major supercell developing in the climatologically favored spot over the Mohawk valley and tracking over Albany to Springfield. Would be very wary of tornados with that storm if it happens as modeled. Where the winds back on the east side the Hudson River, Housatonic, and CT valleys, a storm can get a low-level meso going by sucking in some vorticity from the backed winds, and then the strong low level rotation can persist into the hills and the setup has produced some of the big Northeast tornados (Great Barrington, Springfield, Worcester..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Wouldn’t be shocked to see a few spin ups over the interior today. Think the potential is there for big hail too, with wind as the greatest threat. Might even see upgrade to Moderate risk now that it’s clear that the morning convection won’t be a negative factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wouldn’t be shocked to see a few spin ups over the interior today. Think the potential is there for big hail too, with wind as the greatest threat. Might even see upgrade to Moderate risk now that it’s clear that the morning convection won’t be a negative factor. It's basically clear out to our west and no junk to burn off. That will stoke the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wouldn’t be shocked to see a few spin ups over the interior today. Think the potential is there for big hail too, with wind as the greatest threat. Might even see upgrade to Moderate risk now that it’s clear that the morning convection won’t be a negative factor. Yes I am quite shocked on how quickly things have cleared out this morning... still have some fog to burn off but it does really feel like those of the severe weather days... We'll see what happens. Some of our biggest opportunities in the past came up empty but I believe that was mostly because of early morning activity and clouds lasting to long which this is not the case today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 from the nws nyc ....Across the Enhanced Risk area, Bulk Richardson numbers are 15 to 25 indicating the potential for isolated supercells ahead of the main line of storms. Given high Energy Helicity Indices and Significant Tornado Parameter (both greater than 1) there is the potential for isolated tornadoes, especially in any isolated supercells that form ahead of the main squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Enhanced risk expanded to include NYC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Just now, dmillz25 said: Enhanced risk expanded to include NYC now. woah nellie!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Enhanced risk expanded to include NYC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Enhanced risk expanded to include NYC now. I hope that doesn’t jinx it. Pretty rare for NYC to be in enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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