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may 10-16 convection

forkyfork

By forkyfork,
in New York City Metro

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Bluebythec

Bluebythec

Posted
Posted
ISSUED: 4:59 PM MAY. 12, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 85 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL DELAWARE

KENT

IN NORTHERN DELAWARE

NEW CASTLE

IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE

SUSSEX

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND

CAROLINE              CECIL                 KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S          TALBOT

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC              BURLINGTON            CAMDEN
CAPE MAY              CUMBERLAND            GLOUCESTER
OCEAN                 SALEM
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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

Looks like very wet/active times ahead.

Mt.Holly: 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
  A stagnant and wet (potentially very wet) pattern will continue 
  through the long-term period. Flooding concerns look to be 
  increasing late this week into this weekend. 
   
  The large-scale pattern will continue to feature broad cyclonic 
  midlevel flow in southern Canada and the far northern fringes of 
  the northern U.S. with quasi-zonal flow in the central U.S. 
  eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, western North  
  America will feature a high-amplitude /high-latitude ridge  
  poleward of a decaying upper low in the southwestern U.S.  
  However, an upstream upper low will move into the southwestern  
  U.S. late this week and this weekend. Downstream, a cut-off  
  upper low will slowly lift northeastward from the Gulf region  
  into the southern/central Appalachians and shear apart as it  
  becomes increasingly embedded in the stronger westerlies to the  
  north. Operational models exhibit excellent agreement in these  
  details, but differ markedly in the strength/track of small- 
  scale perturbations embedded in the quasi-zonal midlevel flow.  
  Unfortunately, this makes the forecast for our area quite a  
  challenge basically from the start of the period. 
   
  On Monday, a perturbation will be exiting the coast, taking the 
  short-term period`s round(s) of precipitation with it. 
  Shortwave/transient ridging upstream will likely allow for at 
  least a brief period of dry weather and even some potential 
  partial sunshine. This should allow temperatures to be much 
  warmer than Sunday, possibly as much as 15-20 degrees. The front 
  to our south will be making a move northward late in the day and 
  into Monday night, allowing for southerly flow to return and dew 
  points to rise. Isentropic ascent atop the front will generate 
  another round of showers/storms in the Ohio Valley eastward 
  through the northern Mid-Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. 
   
  Current indications are that there may be two areas of 
  precipitation (associated with two vorticity maxima) during this 
  period. The first may affect the area Monday evening, followed  
  by a lull Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Then, the  
  second/stronger vort max approaches, generating more  
  showers/storms Tuesday afternoon. Depending on the lingering  
  effects of the first round of precipitation, this may allow  
  hot/humid air to surge northward Tuesday. Model soundings  
  indicate anomalously high CAPE for this time of year Tuesday  
  afternoon. However, the CWA is on the southern fringe of the  
  stronger westerlies (as ridging downstream of the Southeast U.S. 
  upper low will shove these northward). The 00Z NAM keeps the  
  convection mainly to our north, but the 00Z ECMWF is more  
  bullish with southward propagation of the convection. The latter 
  seems more reasonable, given general tendencies for models to  
  push hot/humid air too far northward in general. Think there is  
  a pretty good chance of storms Tuesday afternoon/evening,  
  especially north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Given the high-octane  
  environment in place, this may be the CWA`s next good chance of  
  severe storms. Considerable uncertainty exists owing to  
  lingering effects of antecedent convection, resultant boundary  
  location, and potential for somewhat weak deep-layer shear. 
   
  For now, increased PoPs Tuesday afternoon/evening across the 
  region and raised temperatures drastically (by almost ten 
  degrees in most spots). This may be bullish, but the strong 
  signal from the MEX/ECE MOS (as well as operational output) was 
  too much to ignore. Will need to watch this period closely, as 
  the SPC has placed much of our region in a marginal risk for 
  severe storms. 
   
  By Wednesday, the upper low`s proximity to the region becomes a 
  complicating factor, likely allowing for several rounds of 
  (perhaps diurnally-enhanced) convection to occur from the Mid-  
  Atlantic southward. The remnant front as well as a reinforcing  
  cold front to the northwest will provide ample lift for the  
  highly moist/unstable air that will be present to its south.  
  With time, precipitation amounts will likely add up, at least  
  locally and perhaps regionally, with the ECMWF/CMC/GFS all  
  indicating rainfall totals by this coming weekend of 3-5 inches  
  in most of the area. The upper low should shear apart by the  
  weekend, but a northern-stream trough will likely approach  
  thereafter, with an attendant cold front failing to progress  
  past the area as subtropical ridging strengthens in the  
  Atlantic. Thus, there is really no apparent end in sight to the  
  very wet pattern that appears to be commencing. 
   
  With all of this in mind, think chance to high-chance PoPs 
  Wednesday onward with temperatures near to slightly above 
  seasonal averages makes sense at this point. Be prepared for  
  increasing flooding concerns with time. 
   
  &&
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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

This pattern reminds me more of late Summer with the strong WAR keeping the East coast open for business with moisture streaming Northward from the Gulf and Tropics. 

Typically these events end up drier than originally thought, however that hasn't been the case up until this point. 

Tomorrow is our best chance for organized severe.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Per the usual, we'll have morning convection to deal with. We will have to see how quickly that can get out of the way so that we can destabilize. The 12z NAM has us completely clearing out before Noon, which would obviously be good.

that's often the reason these things bust around here-too much debris clouds that often hang around too long...

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's often the reason these things bust around here-too much debris clouds that often hang around too long...

The 12z NAM brings the goods.

Very unstable for this time of the year.

Should be a wicked squall line until it reaches the Hudson River.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Wait, you're calling this meh based on a six hour precip intensity panel? SMH

RGEM has hourly precip panels, not 6 hrs.  RGEM also has the morning warm front more active-something to watch...

it's also a few hours earlier.   We will have debris in the AM-the nam is better allowing for a longer stretch of heating/destabilization.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM has hourly precip panels, not 6 hrs.  RGEM also has the morning warm front more active-something to watch...

it's also a few hours earlier.   We will have debris in the AM-the nam is better allowing for a longer stretch of heating/destabilization.

Warm fronts this time of year can be the best chance for severe along the coast. 

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