Always_Bet_On_Bust Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Models (especially GFS) seem to be trying to develop something in the Gulf or near FL mid/late month. I really hope this is just noise. No one wants the Atlantic/Gulf tropical season to start so soon. E-Pacific is already getting active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Perplexing how you can have a deepening tropical system in this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 About 7 or 8 straight runs of the GFS have developed a storm off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras in about 10 days and then track it into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always_Bet_On_Bust Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 Yep the GFS is still holding onto it quite strong today. It's still in the dreamland period, but I don't like the persistence of this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 GFS and FV3 GFS like the setup. Euro and GGEM not so much. GFS really just fights off the windshear by building up a large area with high pwat that fights it's way north. Probably wrong, Eruo and CMC keep most of the -SLP anaomolies near the central American coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 GFS and FV3 GFS like the setup. Euro and GGEM not so much. GFS really just fights off the windshear by building up a large area with high pwat that fights it's way north. Probably wrong, Eruo and CMC keep most of the -SLP anaomolies near the central American coast. The 0z Euro finally came onboard with showing something as well. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always_Bet_On_Bust Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 At least it's backing off the doomsday scenario for late next week. Plus, this current disturbance doesn't have much opportunity to become anything too strong (just some heavy rain in Fla./Southeast U.S.). Perhaps we've bought ourselves some additional downtime before the tropical season officially starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always_Bet_On_Bust Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Not a problem, @WxWatcher007 ! Same area; same topic. That's the point actually is it's heating up in general down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 General question for those with quite a bit more tropical knowledge then myself. Does the current long range thoughts (season in general) support earlier activity and if so where would that activity likely be focused? Trying to figure out if early season Atlantic coast landfalls have a higher chance of occurrence in this year’s long range setup seeing as the long range GFS no spits out an east coast cane end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Most guidance now has some sort of tropical low entering the GOM mid-late next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Even the GEFS and EPS are suggestive of tropical development in the GOM next week. The GEFS is more more bullish and earlier with genesis, but both generally show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always_Bet_On_Bust Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 @hazwoper, the official joint NHC/CPC tropical outlook for the upcoming season will be out next week. I don't know what it will say yet - plus I'm not allowed to reveal it anyway, until it's publicly launched - but in general, early season activity is in the relatively warm waters of the Gulf (right where the GFS and not Euro are indicating for next week, like @bdgwx and @Chicago Storm alluded to). Then by mid July onward, the activity can be anywhere in the tropics as the classic African-waves-into-the-Atlantic storms start to ramp up. In short, early and late season storms usually involve the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Also early and late season development will occasionally occur along the SE coast from J'ville to Myrtle beach along stalled fronts and even sometimes from a strong MCS moving out over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 GFS tries to sneak a weak low up the east coast next weekend. Euro stalls it near New Orleans. CMC is in the FL panhandle, and the UKMET has nothing. I consider the GFS the outlier cause it has the Bermuda high further east and weaker. Euro would dump a lot of rain over LA AL MS and FL. EDIT: 12z Euro hugs the LA coast for at least 4 days. Has support from the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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