2018 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

4 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Wind is really starting pick up. 

Was about to post the same thing. Picking up in earnest here as well. Almost like someone turned a switch. 

[HurricaneTracker]

NAM appears to be an outlier. It continues to be furthest north and east, like over VA/TN line on Monday.  Whereas the GFS, Euro, GEFS, and EPS, all have it over Knoxville Monday morning. NAM not known for its skill with hurricanes...global models might be onto something here.  Need to see where Florence is at 12Z Sunday. That will decide who gets rain and how much. Fairly robust differences in track even at this stage...has major forecast implications. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

NAM appears to be an outlier. It continues to be furthest north and east, like over VA/TN line on Monday.  Whereas the GFS, Euro, GEFS, and EPS, all have it over Knoxville Monday morning. NAM not known for its skill with hurricanes...global models might be onto something here.  Need to see where Florence is at 12Z Sunday. That will decide who gets rain and how much. Fairly robust differences in track even at this stage...has major forecast implications. 

Agree. Euro is concerning on two fronts. The amount of rain it lays down along with 70 mph gusts it shows. A lot of Mets getting worried about this now as it’s showig up on other models now. 

[HurricaneTracker]

3 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Agree. Euro is concerning on two fronts. The amount of rain it lays down along with 70 mph gusts it shows. A lot of Mets getting worried about this now as it’s showig up on other models now. 

Just examined both 12Z GFS and Euro.  Totally concur with this statement. Both models move Florence west of Asheville (and now HRRR seems to be latching onto this idea). I know I put out a rainfall outlook last night, but that may need to be revised....up.  Flow is just too strong with PWATs over 2.00", even in the mountains (!!!), so rain rates will be efficient. Watch this space. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Just examined both 12Z GFS and Euro.  Totally concur with this statement. Both models move Florence west of Asheville (and now HRRR seems to be latching onto this idea). I know I put out a rainfall outlook last night, but that may need to be revised....up.  Flow is just too strong with PWATs over 2.00", even in the mountains (!!!), so rain rates will be efficient. Watch this space. 

Will be interesting the next 12 hours. By tomorrow morning we should have good idea where that enhanced area of heavy rain will set up shop. 

[BretWx]

Looks like GSP lowered totals west of the escarpment. Odd, considering the model trends. Still up in the air. 

[BretWx]

Latest HRRR has it headed into northeast Georgia and then drifting south a bit (?) 

[HurricaneTracker]

25 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Latest HRRR has it headed into northeast Georgia and then drifting south a bit (?) 

I see that too.  Interesting evolution, especially for NW Piedmont (which would be significantly drier).  Wetter solution for southern escarpment, despite the model not responding with enough QPF.

[nchighcountrywx]

Greg Carbin (‪@GCarbin‬)

9/15/18, 21:03

 

Over the next 36-hours or so, areas of the North Carolina Piedmont and the mountainous terrain of western NC will experience devastating flash flooding unlike anything in recent memory. Roads and bridges will wash away and damage will be severe. #PDS_Flash_Flood_Watch

 

[Rainforrest]

2004 says hello. Any new info on where this thing is headed now?

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

0Z NAM 3k really correcting itself south with this run 

[wncsnow]

I think the convection down east is robbing a lot of the moisture transport for ya'll.  Robert mentioned it as well. Most models dont have any crazy totals. General 4 to 6 inches, up to 8 in favored areas.

[Tyler Penland]

Picked up just under a half inch overnight. Radar filled in nicely to our west now. Gonna be a long day.

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[MotoWeatherman]

4650 on Beech.  Right at .70 inches storm total with a peak wind gust of 44.  I'm wide open to wind out of the east and south so we shall see if I can get gusts over 50.  EURO thinks so..

[Moonhowl]

Between 0.5 and 1" IMBY; dead calm at the moment, thankfully.  Would like to keep power and the trees upright.

 

 

[BretWx]

[HurricaneTracker]

2.38" at my house in southwest Buncombe County since 7pm last night.

[ncjoaquin]

10 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

2.38" at my house in southwest Buncombe County since 7pm last night.

This matches up perfectly with the radar totals. This IS one of those instances where the Asheville valley shelter is doing it's work. That is not held true with several winter events, but has definitely held true here. That is a lot of rain for you!!  

[McDowell_Weather]

14 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

I see that too.  Interesting evolution, especially for NW Piedmont (which would be significantly drier).  Wetter solution for southern escarpment, despite the model not responding with enough QPF.

Thanks for the input i always appreciate your analysis I dont talk alot but been a long time lurker since 2010. One thing i learned if tracker met85 or hunter post its about to get interesting. Hunker down and stay safe fellas. 

[ncjoaquin]

1 hour ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Thanks for the input i always appreciate your analysis I dont talk alot but been a long time lurker since 2010. One thing i learned if tracker met85 or hunter post its about to get interesting. Hunker down and stay safe fellas. 

I agree with those thoughts !

[HurricaneTracker]

Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd!

Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope.

 

EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!

[Met1985]

You can see on the radar where the moisture really deepens in the mountains coming from the east. Pretty impressive for sure. HT that is impressive already. Stay safe out there fellas. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

28 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd!

Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope.

 

EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!

Hmm Euro like. 

[Rainforrest]

33 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd!

Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope.

 

EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!

Will this have any implications for the southern escarpment?

[HurricaneTracker]

10 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Will this have any implications for the southern escarpment?

Yes it should lead to higher totals there. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, HurricaneTracker said:

Yes it should lead to higher totals there. 

I’m not sure folks realize but this thing is just really getting cranked up for the southern and eastern escarpment as upslope flow will last through the night. 

[HurricaneTracker]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m not sure folks realize but this thing is just really getting cranked up for the southern and eastern escarpment as upslope flow will last through the night. 

100%!  Track made all the difference. Upslope will turn from easterly to southeast through the day and southerly overnight. This is why I said NAM was an outlier and QPF was too low from HRRR and other models. We don’t even maximize our precipitable water until 8pm this evening. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said:

100%!  Track made all the difference. Upslope will turn from easterly to southeast through the day and southerly overnight. This is why I said NAM was an outlier and QPF was too low from HRRR and other models. We don’t even maximize our precipitable water until 8pm this evening. 

You’re right. You been sniffing this one out from the beginning! 

[SnoJoe]

I'm not home but checked my weather station online and have a storm total of only .52. I called my neighbor to check in and he has .49. This is definitely an upslope event and doubt the western side will top an inch. You guys be careful and hope the flooding is minimal.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Flash flood warnings being hoisted for here until 8. Very concerning we are seeing this already.