BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Looks like worst case scenario for you guys in the mountains currently with the track being further south and the storm moving very slow. Met! Good to see you. You heading this way anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Met! Good to see you. You heading this way anytime soon? Yeah I am finalizing my plans to head back home now. As it goes with HR things are never done quickly enough. My moms cancer came back and I need to be back home. I hate I'm going to miss this event. There are a lot of changes that can continue down the road. Nothing is set in stone currently but if it moves south and keeps that moisture fetch off the Atlantic and the mountains are in the Northeast side of this thing then we could be seeing flooding like we did in 2004. Especially since the mountains have seen so much rain already this year. Isn't Asheville in second with precipitation totals so far for the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The rain situation is starting to look very serious for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I am finalizing my plans to head back home now. As it goes with HR things are never done quickly enough. My moms cancer came back and I need to be back home. I hate I'm going to miss this event. There are a lot of changes that can continue down the road. Nothing is set in stone currently but if it moves south and keeps that moisture fetch off the Atlantic and the mountains are in the Northeast side of this thing then we could be seeing flooding like we did in 2004. Especially since the mountains have seen so much rain already this year. Isn't Asheville in second with precipitation totals so far for the year? Best wishes for your mom, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 53 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Best wishes for your mom, my friend. Thank you. Family is more important than money so it's an easy decision to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Yep! Not to mention that while it has the storm moving slow, it doesn’t stall it. Continues trucking west and most of the foothills, central mountains, and northern mountains get in on gusts ranging from 40-55mph (I’d assume a bit higher on mountain tops). Normally, we wouldn’t sweat it, but after getting completely washed for the 12-24 hrs before, we’d be absolutely screwed with trees, outages etc. Something that I haven’t mentioned in the other thread out of fear of getting roasted: the track suggesting a dramatic drift SW...just doesn’t make sense. I mean yes I understand the mechanics behind it with the ridge to the north, but idk. It’s so illogical. Seems more logical to assume the ridge isn’t quite that strong, the storm slows and rides the state line westward. It’s a very large storm, and I find it hard to believe it’s just halted and shoved so easily to the south. I really think the euro was on to something 36 hrs ago when it spelled out this solution (state line, west into wnc and tenn). Anyways, I guess we will see and hope for the best. I’m not letting my guard down. The storm has already reached a latitude higher than the nhc cone. She might be coming north fellas. Don’t let your guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Probably more. 60kt barrier jet into the mountains from the east/southeast with high precipitable waters. Can't do that meteorologically without having a really strong response. Of course, this assumes the track stays the same, which it won't. Expect more changes as the days evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 47 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Probably more. 60kt barrier jet into the mountains from the east/southeast with high precipitable waters. Can't do that meteorologically without having a really strong response. Of course, this assumes the track stays the same, which it won't. Expect more changes as the days evolve. Good to hear you chiming in. What’s your take on the track for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Getting worried about Hwy 176 Saluda to Tryon.. friends have told me that after the May flooding and slides it really will not take much to start the mountain moving again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Anybody know how much above average Boone is? Nowdata shows about 20" but those records only go back to 1980.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 hours ago, Rainforrest said: Good to hear you chiming in. What’s your take on the track for our area? Models seem to have finally settled down with a track SSW through South Carolina, ending up between Greenville and Columbia. This puts the mountains in very favorable upslope flow. Then the low should move nearly due north across the western tip of NC and into the Ohio Valley. Going to be a rainy 2-3 days around WNC, starting Saturday. Still trying to figure out how much will fall. That's a complicated forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Keep us updated on what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS further north and east than Euro. Not sure who is going to win this battle. But, GFS is then much drier because the upslope is focused more into Virginia instead of NC. Something to watch for on the 12Z Euro in a few hours. Location of the center of Flo makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Flash flood watch just posted for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Flash flood watch just posted for the mountains. Yeah I noticed that. The thing with this is that subtle changes in the track will cause big changes on precipitation amounts. Also the models usually always underestimate the amount of precipitation coming in on the leeward side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Interesting call for "up to 15 inches"... It could go either way really. It's more a now-casting type of thing. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 ...Flash Flooding Threat From Florence This Weekend Into Monday....Hurricane Florence Will Slowly Track Inland Later Today Into Saturday Across South Carolina, Then Turn Northwest Across The Southern Appalachians Sunday, And Head Into The Central Appalachians Monday. With Soils Saturated Or Becoming Saturated,The Threat Of Flash Flooding Is Likely To Develop This Weekend Into Monday....Flash Flood Watch In Effect From Saturday Morning Through Monday Evening...The National Weather Service In Blacksburg Has Issued A* Flash Flood Watch For Portions Of North Carolina And Southwest Virginia, Including The Following Areas, In North Carolina,Alleghany Nc, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry,Watauga, Wilkes, And Yadkin. In Southwest Virginia, Carroll,Floyd, Grayson, And Patrick.* From Saturday Morning Through Monday Evening* Heavy Rain From Florence Will Lead To Flash Flooding Across The Area, Especially By Saturday Afternoon And Evening Into Monday.5 To 10 Inches Of Rain Are Expected, With Locally Higher Amounts Of A Foot Or More Possible Along The Blue Ridge.* Life-Threatening Flash Flooding May Develop As Heavy Rain Bands Occur This Weekend Into Monday. Streams And Creeks May Rise Quickly During Heavy Rain And Flood. Larger Rivers Eventually May Rise To Flood Stage As Well.* Rainfall Of More Than Five Inches In Similar Storms Has Been Associated With An Increased Risk Of Landslides And Rock Slides.If You Live On A Mountainside Or In A Cove At The Base Of A Mountain...Especially Near A Stream...Be Ready To Leave In Advance Of The Storm Or As Quickly As Possible Should Rising Water...Moving Earth...Or Rocks Threaten. Consider Postponing Travel Along Mountain Roads During The Period Of Heavy Rainfall.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Tropical systems that effect us here in the mountains remind me a lot of the snow producing storms we get in that there is going to be great variation in precipitation accumulation in very short distances, with so much of it being slope dependent. Unfortunately, some us are going to see major flooding and/or land slide issues. I work in Canton right on the Pigeon River. We took in 4 feet of water with the 2004 Hurricanes, I hope we don't see anything like that with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201809141517-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF EIGHT TO TWELVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FROM HENDERSON AND POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD INTO AVERY AND CALDWELL COUNTIES, NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF SIX TO TEN INCHES, WITH GREATER COVERAGE IF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED THAT LEVEL. AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL LANDSLIDES. Honestly, at this point, expecting anywhere from 1-15 inches of rain. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 First tropical shower rolling through. Pretty breezy at times but nothing over 20mph at best I'd say. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 It's about to get nasty along the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Interesting. Entire 469-mile Blue Ridge Parkway to close due to Hurricane Florence Closure goes into effect at 8 p.m. Friday https://www.wsls.com/weather/hurricane-florence/entire-469-mile-blue-ridge-parkway-to-close-due-to-hurricane-florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so. 3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina. This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC! In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west. Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26. others? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so. 3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina. This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC! In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west. Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26. others? Thoughts? I did notice that although marginal, the NHC on their 11p update adjusted their cone slightly further west for WNC, than it was at 5p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 9 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said: Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so. 3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina. This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC! In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west. Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26. others? Thoughts? Going to be a tight gradient for sure. 0Z Euro has Henderson and adjacent foothill counties of Polk, McDowell, NW Burke and Avery county getting 7-10 inches with Asheville proper getting 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Going to be a tight gradient for sure. 0Z Euro has Henderson and adjacent foothill counties of Polk, McDowell, NW Burke and Avery county getting 7-10 inches with Asheville proper getting 3 inches. Euro ensembles have a mean in AVL of 5.1", with as much as 9". GFS up to 6.1" mean. NAM....well.......it’s the NAM with a hurricane CLT mean is 7.8" on Euro. Hickory is 6.0". We will see. Euro and GFS trended a tad southwest, thus the increase in QPF. NAM still north and east and the driest of all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Is thing still moving south/southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Is thing still moving south/southwest? Latest NHC discussion says west at 2mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Wind is really starting pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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