NNE Summer Thread

[ApacheTrout]

Shoot, was hoping for a good, widespread rain event.  0.24 here, with 0.21 of it coming in 10 minutes at 4:15 pm. 

[mreaves]

[ApacheTrout]

19 hours ago, mreaves said:

That chilly air snuck in without much advance notice.  It made it down to 49F in Orwell, and that felt downright cold after the recent smothering heat.

 

[powderfreak]

13 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

That chilly air snuck in without much advance notice.  It made it down to 49F in Orwell, and that felt downright cold after the recent smothering heat.

 

Yeah, the lower afternoon dews gave it away as a much crisper air mass, though it did sneak up after the hotter summer we seem to be having.

[mreaves]

Took a ride to So. VT today and decided to take the toll road to the top of Mt. Equinox. Car thermo read 85 at the bottom and 70 up top. Looks like a decent storm off to the SE. 

[backedgeapproaching]

50 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Took a ride to So. VT today and decided to take the toll road to the top of Mt. Equinox. Car thermo read 85 at the bottom and 70 up top. Looks like a decent storm off to the SE. 

Welcome to the SVT banana belt...Nice car ride up there..and hike also.

I'm sure PF appreciates your  lapse rate reports of 5F per 1000ft ..think the base is around 800ft and top around 3900ft. Although I thought it would be a bit lower with more humid air, but I'm no expert. 

[mreaves]

I had an open day today so I decided to take a ride and spend the $150 pro shop credit I won this spring at Equinox.  I’m now a SVT landmark eating an early supper, Gill’s Delicetessan in Rutland  best sandwiches in VT  

I thought the lapse rate seemed a bit high too but it may have cooled a bit as clouds had moved in while I was on my way up. 

[J.Spin]

Posting those old Concord snow data in the banter thread made me realize that I hadn’t updated my Waterbury Winter Weather Summary Table with this year’s numbers, so I just took care of that and added it below.

Anyway, I’d say it was a nice, solid, average season.  This past season’s data are in the top row of the table, and they’re all in black, indicating that there were no extremes in any of those parameters.

The seasonal aspect of most note I guess was just the late start to the accumulating snowfall season on November 10^th – that was the second latest start I’ve seen here and the only parameter that was outside of ±1 S.D. from the mean.  We had some snow on October 31^st to keep that October frozen precipitation streak alive, but no measurable accumulation until November 10^th.

Beyond that, most numerical parameters were even within ±10% from the mean aside from number of storms (+14.6%) and largest storm (+14.7%).

No complaints really based on the table (which doesn’t capture how poor much of February was with respect to typical snowfall), and I guess based on the parameters shown I’d give it a grade somewhere in the C+ range.

[dendrite]

85/62 today...not too bad with dewpoints in the 60s. A far cry from the 91/65 at CON.

[J.Spin]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

75F and partly sunny with dews in the 50s.

Business suits everywhere.

[dendrite]

66F RA

Max today of 68.9F.

Dreadful day.

[ineedsnow]

On 8/3/2018 at 2:15 PM, J.Spin said:

Posting those old Concord snow data in the banter thread made me realize that I hadn’t updated my Waterbury Winter Weather Summary Table with this year’s numbers, so I just took care of that and added it below.

Anyway, I’d say it was a nice, solid, average season.  This past season’s data are in the top row of the table, and they’re all in black, indicating that there were no extremes in any of those parameters.

The seasonal aspect of most note I guess was just the late start to the accumulating snowfall season on November 10^th – that was the second latest start I’ve seen here and the only parameter that was outside of ±1 S.D. from the mean.  We had some snow on October 31^st to keep that October frozen precipitation streak alive, but no measurable accumulation until November 10^th.

Beyond that, most numerical parameters were even within ±10% from the mean aside from number of storms (+14.6%) and largest storm (+14.7%).

No complaints really based on the table (which doesn’t capture how poor much of February was with respect to typical snowfall), and I guess based on the parameters shown I’d give it a grade somewhere in the C+ range.

I would take half that all those years and be happy

[J.Spin]

On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 5:20 PM, ineedsnow said:

I would take half that all those years and be happy

That’s sort of what happened in 2015-2016, but up here’s that’s not a very happy outcome.  It’s still amazing how much that season sticks out like a sore thumb in the data set, especially with our reduced seasonal snowfall variability up here in the Northern Greens.  It’s simply incredible, but unfortunately on the low end.  With my data set not being that large, that season literally knocked the snowfall average down (I’d argue artificially in an actual long-term sense) by roughly 10 inches.  The mean is slowly recovering year by year at this point, but it’s going to take a lot of seasons to average out such an aberrant value.

[dendrite]

Haven't been in the 70s since 6:29pm Friday.

[tamarack]

Comparing some of J.Spin's numbers with mine for the past 12 winters (11 for SDDs) illustrates the different character of our respective snows.  I'm sure LE would show the same variation.  (StandDev in parentheses):

Location        Waterbury         New Sharon
Avg snowfall   152.8 (37.3)     95.9 (25.7)
Avg max depth  26.6 (8.5)      31.5 (12.6)
Avg SDDs       1,312 (692)     1,975 (956)

[powderfreak]

Finally some rain!

Been pouring for the past couple hours and still going.

[J.Spin]

On ‎8‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 10:36 AM, tamarack said:

Comparing some of J.Spin's numbers with mine for the past 12 winters (11 for SDDs) illustrates the different character of our respective snows.  I'm sure LE would show the same variation.  (StandDev in parentheses):

Location        Waterbury         New Sharon
Avg snowfall   152.8 (37.3)     95.9 (25.7)
Avg max depth  26.6 (8.5)      31.5 (12.6)
Avg SDDs       1,312 (692)     1,975 (956)

I normalized the SD values into percentages in the table below, and they’re actually quite comparable for the two sites aside from max depth.  So at least for these past 12 winters, the variability in snowfall at your site is similar to what it is here in the Northern Greens.  I always thought we had relatively low snowfall variability because of the addition of upslope snow, but perhaps it’s more of an NNE thing. 

 

Standard Deviation (Percent)
Location	Waterbury	New Sharon
Avg Snowfall	24.41%	26.80%
Avg Max Depth	31.95%	40.00%
Avg SDDs	52.74%	48.41%

 

I do have liquid equivalent data for the past eight winter seasons, but I don’t track it by specific dates, I track it for the accumulating snowfall season (i.e. all liquid from the date of the first accumulating snowfall to the date of the last accumulating snowfall).  For that period the mean L.E. is 22.97 ± 4.23”.

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I normalized the SD values into percentages in the table below, and they’re actually quite comparable for the two sites aside from max depth.  So at least for these past 12 winters, the variability in snowfall at your site is similar to what it is here in the Northern Greens.  I always thought we had relatively low snowfall variability because of the addition of upslope snow, but perhaps it’s more of an NNE thing. 

 

Standard Deviation (Percent)
Location	Waterbury	New Sharon
Avg Snowfall	24.41%	26.80%
Avg Max Depth	31.95%	40.00%
Avg SDDs	52.74%	48.41%

 

I do have liquid equivalent data for the past eight winter seasons, but I don’t track it by specific dates, I track it for the accumulating snowfall season (i.e. all liquid from the date of the first accumulating snowfall to the date of the last accumulating snowfall).  For that period the mean L.E. is 22.97 ± 4.23”.

Does that 22.97" include all-liquid events?  I keep LE records only for SN/IP, tossing any RA/ZR for mix/mess storms.  Also, I haven't collated the data for mini events <2".  Storms 2-3.9" have had an average ratio of 9.4-to-1, while for storms 4"+ it's 10.7.  There's a greater proportion of IP in those lesser events.  That high 10s ratio holds true for 6"+ thru 16"+, only climbing above 11-to-1 for storms 18"+, for which N=9, so not a robust set.  My 2 biggest snows here, 24.0" on Dec 6-7, 2003 and Feb 22-23, 2009, averaged 13.8-to-1 (13.0 and 14.7, respectively.)

[powderfreak]

After a summer of missing good rains, we finally got one last night.

I had 2.09" in the Stratus this morning.  I think just north of me by like 1-2 miles is where other PWS stations had 2.3" and 2.5".  

The CoCoRAHS spot in the lower village had 1.99" and I've looked at his spot and he's about 1.5-2 miles SW of me. 

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Does that 22.97" include all-liquid events?  I keep LE records only for SN/IP, tossing any RA/ZR for mix/mess storms.  Also, I haven't collated the data for mini events <2".  Storms 2-3.9" have had an average ratio of 9.4-to-1, while for storms 4"+ it's 10.7.  There's a greater proportion of IP in those lesser events.  That high 10s ratio holds true for 6"+ thru 16"+, only climbing above 11-to-1 for storms 18"+, for which N=9, so not a robust set.  My 2 biggest snows here, 24.0" on Dec 6-7, 2003 and Feb 22-23, 2009, averaged 13.8-to-1 (13.0 and 14.7, respectively.)

Yes, that number is for everything, every drop of liquid/liquid equivalent that fell between the dates of the first and last accumulating snowfalls for each of those seasons.  So the 22.97” includes all-snow events, mixed events, all-rain events, sleet, freezing rain, etc.  I’ve always tracked that number because it’s unequivocal, and I can get it easily by going to the CoCoRaHS website by simply entering the start and end dates.

Beyond that, the analysis obviously becomes more arbitrary and there are numerous ways to do it as your notes indicate.  I haven’t really done much with those types of analyses, but I realize that the CoCoRaHS data archive does have an excellent record that I can use for a more detailed analysis.  In our daily CoCoRaHS reports, we are supposed to indicate the liquid equivalent associated with the sleet/snow as a distinct record from total liquid.  That can be a challenge in mixed events, but I’ve been quite rigorous with respect to catching and documenting the various liquid/frozen break points in events, so what’s in the CoCoRaHS database for our site should be pretty solid.  Running the numbers for the past eight seasons reveals an average of 10.64 ± 2.77” L.E., which is the L.E. for just sleet and snow, no rain or freezing rain.  So of that 22.97” of total liquid during each snowfall season, roughly half is derived from snow and sleet.

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Yes, that number is for everything, every drop of liquid/liquid equivalent that fell between the dates of the first and last accumulating snowfalls for each of those seasons.  So the 22.97” includes all-snow events, mixed events, all-rain events, sleet, freezing rain, etc.  I’ve always tracked that number because it’s unequivocal, and I can get it easily by going to the CoCoRaHS website by simply entering the start and end dates.

Beyond that, the analysis obviously becomes more arbitrary and there are numerous ways to do it as your notes indicate.  I haven’t really done much with those types of analyses, but I realize that the CoCoRaHS data archive does have an excellent record that I can use for a more detailed analysis.  In our daily CoCoRaHS reports, we are supposed to indicate the liquid equivalent associated with the sleet/snow as a distinct record from total liquid.  That can be a challenge in mixed events, but I’ve been quite rigorous with respect to catching and documenting the various liquid/frozen break points in events, so what’s in the CoCoRaHS database for our site should be pretty solid.  Running the numbers for the past eight seasons reveals an average of 10.64 ± 2.77” L.E., which is the L.E. for just sleet and snow, no rain or freezing rain.  So of that 22.97” of total liquid during each snowfall season, roughly half is derived from snow and sleet.

So much for my theory that the better retention here is due to "meatier" snow.  Without including the little events, my ratio (for 20 winters, thus not perfectly comparable) is 10.51 - haven't run the SD, but gross average is essentially the same as yours.  I think it's colder at my place, certainly in the morning at this frost pocket, and our small lawn is fully surrounded by tall trees in every direction but northwest - mostly hardwoods, but even leaf-off they block 25-40% of sunlight (or so stated the info I learned from my year in Urban Forestry.) 

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

Storms 2-3.9" have had an average ratio of 9.4-to-1, while for storms 4"+ it's 10.7.  There's a greater proportion of IP in those lesser events.  That high 10s ratio holds true for 6"+ thru 16"+, only climbing above 11-to-1 for storms 18"+, for which N=9, so not a robust set.  My 2 biggest snows here, 24.0" on Dec 6-7, 2003 and Feb 22-23, 2009, averaged 13.8-to-1 (13.0 and 14.7, respectively.)

Actually, now that I’ve obtained the L.E. for exclusively the snow & sleet from each winter, I can calculate the average snow to water ratio for just that precipitation.  That comes in at 13.7 ± 1.4 during the eight years in my data set.  That’s just total snow & sleet to total snow & sleet L.E.  I don’t have it broken down by storm size in any way, which would take a bit of work because there are over 400 accumulating storms documented at our site during that stretch that I’d have to categorize and find the individual snow and L.E. numbers.  The 13.7 ratio does include sleet L.E. of course, so the number is lower than what it would be for pure snow, but it does jive fairly well with the plot from the 2005 Baxter et al paper in Weather and Forecasting, which seems to put NVT in the 13 to 14 range with respect to mean SLR. 

[#NoPoles]

Any signs of foliage yet? 

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Any signs of foliage yet? 

Swamp maples are turning, and the paper birch alongside our driveway is dropping a few brownish leaves, things that always begin by mid August.  Given that this month is contending to be the warmest of 21 Augusts here and with many fewer than average cool (sub-50) mornings, I think those changes are linked more closely to shortening daylength than to sensible wx.

[scoob40]

9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Swamp maples are turning, and the paper birch alongside our driveway is dropping a few brownish leaves, things that always begin by mid August.  Given that this month is contending to be the warmest of 21 Augusts here and with many fewer than average cool (sub-50) mornings, I think those changes are linked more closely to shortening daylength than to sensible wx.

Nice but your a week or so behind the magical

hamlet of West Chesterfield Ma.

 

 

 

 

[J.Spin]

On ‎8‎/‎16‎/‎2018 at 11:50 PM, #NoPoles said:

Any signs of foliage yet? 

Our butternut tree out back that usually starts losing its leaves around the first of August actually started losing its leaves earlier this year – they were already falling at some point in late July.  Perhaps it was because we’ve been drier than usual for this area over the past couple of months.  One thunderstorm we had a few days back brought down a ton of yellow leaves, so the back yard and deck are littered with them.  I’m actually watching more of them falling right now, and with the current upslope rain/mist, and cooler/drier air moving in, the scene is very autumnal.

In this area we’ll often start to get that feel of seasonal change picking up by August 1^st, and certainly by about August 10^th, but in terms of everyday feel, it just hasn’t happened substantially yet with this weather pattern.  You can tell that full summer is definitely on borrowed time at this latitude though – even with this pattern the forecast lows are dropping well into the 50s F around here, and we’re not particularly cold with respect to a lot of spots in the area.  In any event, the dew points are taking a huge hit relative to where we’ve been if lows are dropping like that instead of staying in the 60s F.

On our way out of town yesterday we saw a nice band of yellow hitting various trees in the 1,000-1,500’ elevation range on the north wall of the Winooski Valley.  We were actually up above 47° N at Mont Sainte Anne Thursday and Friday, but I didn’t see anything notably different than around here with respect to color change.

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely a fall appeal today.  Was in the 60s at the base of the ski resort all day with stiff NW breeze at times.

Could tell it had that autumn pattern of rounds and rounds of brief moderate showers igniting over the Spine.  

Much more cold season looking radar and feel to the day.  Squally.

Yes, definitely.  We had some steady rain at times, and it was the type where I’d look at the radar and not really be able to see it, so I figured it was some of our classic orographic stuff.  We picked up ~0.20” of liquid from the showers with plenty of autumn look and feel.  It will be interesting to see if there’s any discernible orographic pattern in the local liquid reports tomorrow morning.

[mreaves]

Usually by this time of year, the vegetation starts looking tired and dull but it seems like it has brightened considerably since we started to get a bit of regular rainfall. It was looking stressed but now seems a bit revived. 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That's not a bad month to be above normal.  Sort of like May.  

Indeed, I’d say above average temperatures are often fantastic around here for both September and October.  September is kind of a no brainer because the chance for skiable snow is essentially nil.  October is a bit tougher because there’s almost always some snow, and below average temperatures or at least a below average stretch can mean some nice early season turns.

It looks like last year we had one round of snow in September, and then three rounds of snow in October on the 16^th, the 27^th, and the 31^st.  There wasn’t really anything notable in terms of skiable snow though.

The previous year had some more substantial events however, with the first salvo coming on the 23^rd and dropping a foot of snow at elevation.  I was out of town for that one, but it kept snowing with upslope from the moist cyclonic flow, and I got out for some turns on the 28^th, by which point it looks like the northern half of the state had seen 18-20” at elevation.  That was a great way to kick things off for the season:

[Hitman]

Went to north beach in Burlington today.  What a great spot.