Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 Today's 12z GFS shows an interesting entity (Issac remnants?) that comes up through Cuba into the big bend of FL, then slides up the coast inland as a cold front approaches. This is for day 10 onward. Meanwhile, STS Joyce has formed in the central Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Long way out... But the last two runs of the GFS have a reverse basin crosser (Pacific to the GoM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 well the little piece of Florence ( 98L) the NHC is tracking looks a little better this morning and most models bring it over eastern NC......really dont need any rain and even if its not a named system its not wanted.....still a few days out but a lot can happen in an few days..the center looks to be getting better organized on the SE side of the convection and the shear is suppose to let up some over the next few days before picking up again..... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=98L&product=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 There's gonna be a hurricane late next week. Hopefully not another Florence repeat. JB's "ridge over troubled water" makes its return just in time for my OBX trip (that I moved from late-SEP to mid- OCT because I'm tired of being ran off by hurricanes.) LOL glad that worked out. Had I moved it to mid-November there'd have been a 'cane then too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 yeah models all hint at something off the SE coast......still a solid 10 days away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Lot of chatter about this from models to LR guys. These October Canes always get my attn for no other reason than they generally have the potential to be fast movers/forward speed. That usually spells OTS. But we haven't had the luxury of a seasonal true cold front yet thanks to the Death ridge that want go away. Look at Hazel how it floundered around then turned on the jets coming up the backside of an Atlantic Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 On 10/2/2018 at 7:08 AM, NCSNOW said: Lot of chatter about this from models to LR guys. These October Canes always get my attn for no other reason than they generally have the potential to be fast movers/forward speed. That usually spells OTS. But we haven't had the luxury of a seasonal true cold front yet thanks to the Death ridge that want go away. Look at Hazel how it floundered around then turned on the jets coming up the backside of an Atlantic Ridge. LR FV3 brings it in through the Fla panhandle and splits NC with lots of rain. Still a long ways out but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Ukie has something coming into SE Louisiana at day 5-6,Euro also had something on the 0z run earlier but coming in slower.Maybe a strong tropical storm looks to me. This could help flip the pattern a little quicker getting the heights down in the SE,we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Euro has a weaker system at day 7 in S.Alabama (1003mb) but it does pull NE helping to lower heights and eventually getting a trof n the E coast by day 9-10. Ukie has a 997 low in C Mississippi at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 12z runs are getting Michael, a little more interesting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 19 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z runs are getting Michael, a little more interesting!! gfs would not be welcomed. No wind just rain so a boring system over an area that needs no more rain for the next few weeks to finish drying out. The mosquitoes are hell here right now already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 2 hours ago, shaggy said: gfs would not be welcomed. No wind just rain so a boring system over an area that needs no more rain for the next few weeks to finish drying out. The mosquitoes are hell here right now already. desperately need the rain here, have had virtually none for two months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Despite the fact that many people did flood here with Florence, it have been 3 weeks now since we have had a good soaking rain. So yes rain is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Euro and Ukie look pretty close at day 5-6,Florida big bend,SE GA,SC,and NC the track.Euro is more inland and is slower by 12-24 hours. It also pulls the heights/trof down in the upper SE by day 6,7,Ukie has 578dm at day 6,Euro has 573dm at day 7. Hopefully no more 594dm death ridge this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Michael is thankfully going to be moving fast so that should help on rain totals......depending on how organized it is though this could up the winds inland though probably not more than 40-60 mph in gust and mostly on the east side....intensity forecast are such a crap shoot but shear etc should keep a lid on this thing that water is warm though and you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 0z GFS shifting east from 18z run,993 low just SW of CLT at 108.If this thing has any forward speed as forecasted some gusty winds are possible in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Classic October hurricane track. I like that we finally have some interesting weather for north GA. Also it’s prety clear that Michael will bring the pattern change we have all been looking for. Rain, wind, and finally some crisp DPs are on the way!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Definitely could have some wind issues inland based on the current NHC forecast guidance. INIT 07/0900Z 18.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro is putting down some unfortunate rainfall totals for eastern nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro and Ukie are still on the coast with a much stronger storm,GFS slowly getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 43 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro and Ukie are still on the coast with a much stronger storm,GFS slowly getting there. Who you think will cave first? EURO or is the GFS the only outlier with that rediculus fast paced Apps rubber track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Those wind gust maps are historically way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1 hour ago, WXinCanton said: Those wind gust maps are historically way overdone. yeah it will take the storm being well organized and strong to keep a 40-60 mph wind field all the way to the Carolinas.....the forward speed though will be a issue, if it is moving as fast as modeled then the east side especially could see gust 40-60 all they till the storm leaves the VA coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 Planning ahead... wralweatherVerified account @wralweather 1m1 minute ago Tropical Storm #Nadine is 3452 miles ESE of Raleigh, moving WNW at 8 mph. Max winds 40 mph. http://hurricanes.wral.com/ #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 11 AM advisory for Michael 990 mb 35 miles SSE of CLT moving NE at 23 mph. Actually the GFS and FV3 did pretty well on this,had this more west most of the way.Euro and Ukie were way too far east on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2018 Author Share Posted October 28, 2018 Hello, Oscar! 500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 ...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 25.7N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 26.1N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.2N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 30.7N 57.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 38.0N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 45.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 45.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 ...OSCAR DOING A QUICK COSTUME CHANGE INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.