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2018 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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Today's 12z GFS shows an interesting entity (Issac remnants?) that comes up through Cuba into the big bend of FL, then slides up the coast inland as a cold front approaches. This is for day 10 onward.

 

Meanwhile, STS Joyce has formed in the central Atlantic.

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well the little piece of Florence ( 98L) the NHC is tracking looks a little better this morning and most models bring it over eastern NC......really dont need any rain and even if its not a named system its not wanted.....still a few days out but a lot can happen in an few days..the center looks to be getting better organized on the SE side of the convection and the shear is suppose to let up some over the next few days before picking up again.....

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=98L&product=vis

 

 

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There's gonna be a hurricane late next week. Hopefully not another Florence repeat. JB's "ridge over troubled water" makes its return just in time for my OBX trip (that I moved from late-SEP to mid-
OCT because I'm tired of being ran off by hurricanes.) LOL glad that worked out. Had I moved it to mid-November there'd have been a 'cane then too.

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Lot of chatter about this from models to LR guys. These October Canes always get my attn for no other reason than they generally have the potential to be fast movers/forward speed. That usually spells OTS. But we haven't had the luxury of a seasonal true cold front yet thanks to the Death ridge that want go away. Look at Hazel how it floundered around then turned on the jets coming up the backside of an Atlantic Ridge.

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On ‎10‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 7:08 AM, NCSNOW said:

Lot of chatter about this from models to LR guys. These October Canes always get my attn for no other reason than they generally have the potential to be fast movers/forward speed. That usually spells OTS. But we haven't had the luxury of a seasonal true cold front yet thanks to the Death ridge that want go away. Look at Hazel how it floundered around then turned on the jets coming up the backside of an Atlantic Ridge.

LR FV3 brings it in through the Fla panhandle and splits NC with lots of rain. Still a long ways out but it's there.

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19 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

12z runs are getting Michael, a little more interesting!!

gfs would not be welcomed. No wind just rain so a boring system over an area that needs no more rain for the next few weeks to finish drying out. The mosquitoes are hell here right now already.

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2 hours ago, shaggy said:

gfs would not be welcomed. No wind just rain so a boring system over an area that needs no more rain for the next few weeks to finish drying out. The mosquitoes are hell here right now already.

desperately need the rain here, have had virtually none for two months now. 

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Michael is thankfully going to be moving fast so that should help on rain totals......depending on how organized it is though this could up the winds inland though probably not more than 40-60 mph in gust and mostly on the east side....intensity forecast are such a crap shoot but shear etc should keep a lid on this thing that water is warm though and you never know. 

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Definitely could have some wind issues inland based on the current NHC forecast guidance.

INIT  07/0900Z 18.6N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST
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1 hour ago, WXinCanton said:

Those wind gust maps are historically way overdone.

yeah it will take the storm being well organized and strong to keep a 40-60 mph wind field all the way to the Carolinas.....the forward speed though will be a issue, if it is moving as fast as modeled then the east side especially could see gust 40-60 all they till the storm leaves the VA coast....

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  • 3 weeks later...

Hello, Oscar!

500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 25.7N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 26.1N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 26.9N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 28.2N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 30.7N  57.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 38.0N  50.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 45.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 45.0N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

 

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