FallsLake Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 6z GFS is even farther west and has the recurve happening right off the Outer Banks. Major hurricane (as depicted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I'm not pulling for a direct hit from a hurricane (like the euro shows); but the GFS would be great. It keeps the storm just off shore spinning until it eventually pulls down nice cool air to the north. Basically the storm would help break this terrible hot pattern we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 42 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I'm not pulling for a direct hit from a hurricane (like the euro shows); but the GFS would be great. It keeps the storm just off shore spinning until it eventually pulls down nice cool air to the north. Basically the storm would help break this terrible hot pattern we're in. Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, shaggy said: Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit. True, but as long as we can keep it east of us eventually it will transition from tropical to extra-tropical and we may get the cool air pulled down. But still far out. This storm may still stay farther out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 Overachieving 835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC) advisory package. 5:00 AM Discusssion INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 46.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 24.2N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 24.9N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 25.6N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 28.7N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 DT in a recent video mentioned how the setup is similar to isabel so i decided to bring up an upper air map for comparisons sake. (hopefully it isnt a massive image) Florence at roughly the same location on the GEFS ensembles, notice the high over the NE. That's what will likely block Florence from recurving early enough to recurve OTS without affecting land. Over the next few days we need to watch very closely how the models place that ridge. Personally I believe Florence will, at the very least, get close. I really hope the cool water and dry air prevents strengthening because OBX may experience hurricane force conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 hours ago, shaggy said: Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit. yeppers, Brutal after Fran..., HOT, HOT, HOT... That was just after We got sliced by Bertha the month & 1/2 before.. We'll Gotta go check & do quick Maint. on My Generator.. (It's only has .04 hours on it, (brand new really).. Knowing the Cape Fears good luck, we'll get "whacked".. Maybe I'll get good Picture Footage & Obs for you Inland peeps from here this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 Gotta love a good clickbait If Hurricane Florence makes landfall as a Cat 3-5, prediction path AP04 could result in Charlotte experiencing a direct hit by a hurricane – something we haven’t experienced since Hurricane Hugo devastated our city back in 1989. http://www.charlottestories.com/hurricane-florence-could-hit-the-carolinas-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 47 minutes ago, Solak said: Gotta love a good clickbait If Hurricane Florence makes landfall as a Cat 3-5, prediction path AP04 could result in Charlotte experiencing a direct hit by a hurricane – something we haven’t experienced since Hurricane Hugo devastated our city back in 1989. http://www.charlottestories.com/hurricane-florence-could-hit-the-carolinas-next-week/ Someone should be seriously reprimanded for allowing that to be published. Good grief!! They could have reworded the article and said exactly the same thing in a more wx pc format. "While models are uncertain in this timeframe and the exact track is yet to be determined, it is worth noting that the last time Charlotte experienced hurricane conditions was....xyz. We'll keep you posted as new details are available." Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I hope no one thought Flo's curving out to sea was set in stone yesterday. The models today are saying maybe not. Back and forth we go. Still a lot of time for more change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Calling it now, Hugo redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 5:00PM - 130mph Cat 4 INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 46.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 50 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Calling it now, Hugo redux You'd have a better shot of calling blizzard on Christmas Eve from this far out than predicting another Hugo. Ole Flo could be a fragment of her former self by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 GFS is mid atlantic porn for those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Still far out so I would say all folks from SC to Cape Code need to monitor this storm. We're going to get big shifts in the models for at least the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Calling it now, Hugo redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Storm still moving as far to the eastern edge of the cone as possible to boot, moving almost NNW at the moment.......gonna take a unprecedented track to get a US landfall especially with the storms current heading.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 45 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Storm still moving as far to the eastern edge of the cone as possible to boot, moving almost NNW at the moment.......gonna take a unprecedented track to get a US landfall especially with the storms current heading.... What the models keep saying will happen and what actually is happening don't seem to match up to well. No model even hinted at a cat 4 and she is just out there doing what she wants. If that ridge is as strong as modeled you would have to see a sharp left turn and stay that way for a while to get it to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 German makes landfall almost directly over MHX at 951MB next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 She is weakening, which means a better chance of heading more westward. The models are now showing it heading further west before turning north. The Euro, ICON, and CMC all show it hitting NC. Right now I would not bet it heading out to sea and not hitting the east coast. Also, it's dead in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: She is weakening, which means a better chance of heading more westward. The models are now showing it heading further west before turning north. The Euro, ICON, and CMC all show it hitting NC. Right now I would not bet it heading out to sea and not hitting the east coast. Also, it's dead in here. Wait till next week, it'll pick up big time if she comes close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Yeah the euro is a hit around Ocracoke. Still way out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah the euro is a hit around Ocracoke. Still way out.. Then turns NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Euro day 7 This could still tick a bit more west in my opinion,a 594dm death ridge is very strong heights,not a run of the mill 582 or even 588. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 That CMC run is about as worst case for eastern NC as it gets track wise.....has Emerald Isle in the north and east eyewall the entire time, crushed Jacksonville down to Topsail then moves inland and had Greenville and New Bern in the north and then east eyewalls the entire time...this would put 10-15 ft of water up the Neuse and Tar rivers, then it stalls and rains out over central and eastern NC....ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 The key with the Canadian is the low that it spins up off the FL/GA coast. This allows some weakness and Florence "chases" it inward. The ridge then builds in and completely blocks it from going north. Right now, not putting much stock in it. No other models have that feature showing up. Lots of fun tracking coming. (And long hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 12 EPS ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Here is the wind gust on the ICON ( German model ) for landfall, center s\would be moving N or NNW still I think but this is the last frame on this run.....would be a crushing hit for the south beaches and interior eastern NC....this would have to be a solid Cat 3 to gust to 145..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 18Z HWRF and HMON are both coming in significantly SW of their 12Z runs. 18Z FV3 run is also coming in significantly further S then the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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