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2018 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah but notice that set up? Identical to the freight train last year with Irma and Jose

No reason to look at anything beyond the models showing some agreement at a system or 2 getting going in the tropics. This season has been lackluster and to just have a system on a model is good for now.

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10 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

When both the EURO and GFS agree... You know it is time to monitor

Both agree any cape verde systems look like fish systems at the moment. There is some sniffing around the idea of something around the Bahamas but nothing too organized.

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Saturday morning AFD (RAH)

The bigger
question remains what happens with the tropics through the period,
as the medium-range models cannot seem to agree the ECMWF has a
tropical system hitting the northern Gulf coast mid-week, while the
GFS hints at a system approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast over the
weekend. Will wait to see if they start to agree more before over-
analyzing the "what if`s" of each scenario.
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16 minutes ago, Solak said:

Saturday morning AFD (RAH)


The bigger
question remains what happens with the tropics through the period,
as the medium-range models cannot seem to agree the ECMWF has a
tropical system hitting the northern Gulf coast mid-week, while the
GFS hints at a system approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast over the
weekend. Will wait to see if they start to agree more before over-
analyzing the "what if`s" of each scenario.

06Z GFS is further southwest with Florence again compared to the 00z. Add the huge shift west from the euro overnight and keep those trends going and we will at least have something to track in the long range.

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3 hours ago, shaggy said:

06Z GFS is further southwest with Florence again compared to the 00z. Add the huge shift west from the euro overnight and keep those trends going and we will at least have something to track in the long range.

New England is long overdue for a landfall from a Hurricane (maybe Bob 1991 the last)

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough.  This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds.  However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday.  This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 4m4 minutes ago

 
 

NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven located near the Central Bahamas and northern Cuba. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. Here are Key Messages for this advisory and go to http://hurricanes.gov  for info.DmHhChlXoAAhqif.jpg

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The 5:00 AM advisory didn't have Gordon reaching 45mph for another 36 hours ---but here we are 3 1/2 hours later....

SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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The CMC has Florence making landfall and the Euro is on track to hit about were the CMC did.....the GFS turns it north east of Bermuda but I know where I would  put my money lol....

gem_z500_mslp_us_41.thumb.png.84b0f9b697cada242ff2e719a0360e6c.png

 

Euro has it still offshore but it is moving WNW/NW the last two frames and if there was another frame would be darn near on top of the CMC position...crazy agreement from them actually though they get there different ways...

ecmwf_T850_seus_11.thumb.png.6517072fd9ea0a3451b70f12b619ea13.png

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Going back and looking closer the Euro has it hauling ass west really....if you connect the dots on the last two frames that thing is scooting WNW at best and it would take it slamming on brakes to not come in over NC and moving inland boot....

Run this on loop and it takes a hell of a hard turn to the west just south of Bermuda....is very Isabel like.....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018090300&fh=144

 

 

 

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Talk about polar opposites...

crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 21m21 minutes ago

FLO: The Court Jester now heads SW at rapid motion into Florida while the GOOFUS rips out to sea well east of Bermuda. I have my reasons for ignoring models until a specific point in time....I think you now see why. All Thoughts & listed blogs: http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm DmMRpVvUYAE0TWX.jpg

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19 minutes ago, shaggy said:

With the euro caving last night to a full on recurve I think it's time to start looking at the trailing system that is starting out much further south. 

Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years.  It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back.  I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to.

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33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years.  It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back.  I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to.

Euro hasn't been king of late

We still have time to see what Florence is going to do.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years.  It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back.  I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to.

Agreed, I don't put as much weight into it as I once did. 

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1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 42.5W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

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2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I'm still thinking that once it hits the death ridge it will be forced west... Even as a Cat. 1 I don't see it punching through the barrier to head north

Needed this to stay weak and south through the first several days and instead it has become a hurricane. This one is not likely going to be any sort of problem for the east coast if these trends continue. We needed a weak storm to have it threaten the east coast.

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6 hours ago, shaggy said:

With the euro caving last night to a full on recurve I think it's time to start looking at the trailing system that is starting out much further south. 

Even starting further south the trailing system  at least very early on looks most likely  to be a fish storm as well.

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