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2018 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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And so it begins...

 

NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 50m50 minutes ago

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 DcXEhsnXUAApWnF.jpg

 

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Heading down to Man of War Cay in the Abaco chain of the Bahamas on Wednesday. Forecast isn't looking so good. Hopefully the shower/thunderstorm activity is spotty and winds don't kick up.

Also, end of the recent GFS run has a tropical storm making landfall in the gulf. 

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NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 44m44 minutes ago

Low pressure moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days. Regardless of development, rainfall will be enhanced across FL and the NE Gulf Coast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 DdGeT1mW4AEqS8W.jpg

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Just about all the models have some kind of decently strong tropical low in the GOM/Florida area by day 10. Normally you wouldn't think much this time of the year but the GFS/CMC/Euro/ICON all have the storm day 8-10ish. With the pattern already being wet this could pose a problem if there is a more organized tropical low in that time frame hitting areas already getting 3-6" of rain leading up to it.

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On 5/13/2018 at 6:35 PM, downeastnc said:

Yep between this GOM low and the SER sliding east the SE is going to be seeing a lot of deep tropical moisture headed inland over most of the SE.....

The 12Z was wet and thats ignoring the Cat 3 hurricane it has at the end of the run lol....

gfs_apcpn_us_46.thumb.png.e533616bde56bc7c9751180cabe2a752.png

A few analogs to wet May.. 

1956, 1957, 1958, 1959

1987, 1991x2, 2001, 2003, 2004,

2009, 2010, 2012

 

A lot of hurricanes off the SE coast a few months later. 

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.  While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days.  For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM
EDT on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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MOB raising some eyebrows over this system.

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper
ridge weakens while slowly shifting eastward across the eastern
states to the east coast through Friday night as an upper trof
advances from the northern/central Plains and begins to move into
the eastern states. This transition is of importance as it
influences a weak upper trof which initially exists from the
Sabine River valley into the northwest Gulf and results in this
weak trof becoming somewhat better defined while shifting slowly
eastward to the north central Gulf and southern Mississippi River
valley. The ramifications of the position of this upper trof will
be to play a big role in the movement of a surface low expected to
develop over the south central or southeast Gulf, and favor a
general northward movement of this potential feature.

Development of the surface low looks probable, so the big
questions are when and where the system develops.  As noted
earlier the upper trof will likely favor a northward movement with
this system, but depending on where it develops (south central or
southeast Gulf), this will determine if the surface low moves
towards the north central or the northeast Gulf.  There are some
environmental limitations on this potential system, such as
somewhat drier air noted in the water vapor loop over the Gulf,
but the configuration of the surface low will likely be tropical
(warm-core).  The National Hurricane Center currently has a 40%
chance for tropical cyclone development over the eastern or
central Gulf during the period, and will continue to monitor this
as closely as possible.

While there are uncertainties with timing and movement of the
anticipated surface low, confidence is increasing for very high
pops as well as for potential flooding threats. Following upon
guidance and WPC QPF amounts, have issued a Flood Threat graphic
which will begin from late Thursday and continue through late
Sunday (the LONG TERM period). Have gone with a Significant Threat
Area generally south of Highway 84 where areas of flash flooding
will be possible and an Elevated Threat Area further to the north
where isolated to areas of flash flooding will be possible. Heavy
surf is likely along with a moderate risk of rip currents
through Friday then likely becoming high by Friday night. At least
minor coastal flooding could begin as early as late Thursday, with
the potential for coastal flooding impacts increasing through
Friday night. /29

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The forecast depends
entirely on the timing and movement of the anticipated Gulf
system. Should this system materialize as anticipated, a movement
to the north central or northeast Gulf coast looks most likely
based on the influence of the upper trof as alluded to in the
SHORT TERM section. A plausible solution (from a consensus of
guidance) has the system moving to the north central/northeast
Gulf coast in the Saturday into Sunday night timeframe. As
mentioned earlier, the National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance
for tropical cyclone development with this system and will closely
monitor. It is too early to be able to assess potential wind
impacts, but confidence has increased for flooding potential and a
Significant to Elevated Threat of flooding follows through at
least Sunday. In addition, the pattern supports likely to
categorical pops through most of the period. A high risk of rip
currents and heavy surf is likely through at least the weekend
along with coastal flooding impacts. May also need to assess the
potential for severe (tornadic) storm development, but unable to
delve into any specifics right now as this will depend heavily on
the timing/movement of the system. /29
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90L sure looks like its going to be the first named storm of the year.....that combined with the Bermuda High could turn the hose on much of the SE over the next 7-10 days. Locally the river here is only a few feet from flood stage given the rainy pattern we have already been in.....

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Ukie and the GFS are more east with the guidance,bringing a 997-1000 low up towards the big bend of Florida.Euro is more west bring it into New Orleans area.Both show some sort of stall though once inland so heavy rain could hit somewhere.

*6z GFS did shift west though close to Mobile,could be a trend.

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  • 1 month later...

Closer to home...

NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 33s34 seconds ago

 
 

A tropical depression is likely to form and stall or meander near the coast of North Carolina through the weekend. Interests along the Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. More info available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 

Dha1XBHXkAAwUJZ.jpg
Dha1YfOX0AIn4Au.jpg
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Going to the outer banks the week after next. The weather lover in me says bring on the storms, but the rest/relaxation side says keep them away.

 

Edit: Looking at the models it looks like storms (if they develop) should be pushed westward out-to-sea. But id we got some gulf development that could be directed toward us.  

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2 hours ago, Solak said:

Closer to home...

NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 33s34 seconds ago

 
 

A tropical depression is likely to form and stall or meander near the coast of North Carolina through the weekend. Interests along the Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. More info available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 

Dha1XBHXkAAwUJZ.jpg
Dha1YfOX0AIn4Au.jpg

Downeastnc and our parents will be at Bath on the river all next week. Me and my 2 yr old will join them beginning if the week and then when my wife gets done with work on Tuesday she comes and gets me and we go to kitty hawk through Friday.

96L is a huge fly in the ointment. Gfs is bullish and the rest meh on development. Regardless with a low off the coast rip currents will keep us out of the ocean for sure.

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There is a trough of tropical entities off the SE coast. If you watch one might as well watch the other two.

 

Gom/FL FL to SC. SC to NE eventually but still around Bermuda.

There is still a very board anticlyclone aloft. Seen that tonight with the East coast seabreeze.

Some kind off broad scale trough

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It's really not that bad, i'm in Wilmington and barely had any wind or rain. There are plenty of visitors walking on the beaches and swimming. 

models like this one are trolling my emotions though...pretty sure it is not going to verify. 

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

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15 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

It's really not that bad, i'm in Wilmington and barely had any wind or rain. There are plenty of visitors walking on the beaches and swimming. 

models like this one are trolling my emotions though...pretty sure it is not going to verify. 

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

Yeah, that is pretty much in dream land.

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15 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

It's really not that bad, i'm in Wilmington and barely had any wind or rain. There are plenty of visitors walking on the beaches and swimming. 

models like this one are trolling my emotions though...pretty sure it is not going to verify. 

WUT? You musta posted before the "White-out" rain(s) & Storms yesterday afternoon...  

15 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

 

 

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