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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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TheBudMan

TheBudMan

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I will be in the Danbury area b/c I'm doing my charter broadcast but as far as going chasing doubt it. I'm hanging out with someone tomorrow. 

 

TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow.  Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background.   What a fail  :facepalm: 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 

TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow.  Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background.   What a fail  :facepalm: 

I don't really have the time anymore to just go out and chase. If we get a setup on a day when I'm free I'll do it but if not it's whatever. I'm not really upset about it

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation.

It also seems on days with EML advection we clear out not only rather easily but clear out quite nicely. That's just probably b/c of the degree of mid-level dry air associated with it though lol. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation.

Yeah the timing actually looks favorable for some nice clearing midday. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It also seems on days with EML advection we clear out not only rather easily but clear out quite nicely. That's just probably b/c of the degree of mid-level dry air associated with it though lol. 

Well that's the thing. The EML has plenty of dry air, so if you can have some mechanism to suppress clouds (like subby) it should clear out. But if you keep weak height falls or something like that the low level moisture can just percolate at the bottom of that layer.

All models have those subtle height rises tomorrow morning.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Wow - where'd you see that?

I call BS. I was warning operator that day, and I can buy a tornado near the CT River. The beam is like 7-8 kft there, easy to miss a low level QLCS tornado. But a 36 mile (4th-ish longest New England tornado), I don't think so.

My guess (hope?) is that WMUR confused a statement about the length of thunderstorm wind damage with the smaller tornado path.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Not the most telling metric ...admittedly, but I don't like the way that hashing for Enhanced risk terminates abruptly where it does on the eastern extent.

That just smells like right turning clusters doing that pac-man thing of gobbling toward the source of latent heat inflow while areas NE eat anvil light CAPE-killer rains and occasional orange lightning. 

And that tends to prove these hashed regions as being NE biased as a standard correction too.. I don't ever ever recall severe verifying N and E of an SPC hashing in this part of the country ... seemingly always the other way.  We'll see.  Hope I'm pleasantly surprised. 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TheBudMan said:

 

TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow.  Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background.   What a fail  :facepalm: 

Or to his friend’s dad while nude hot tubbng. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I call BS. I was warning operator that day, and I can buy a tornado near the CT River. The beam is like 7-8 kft there, easy to miss a low level QLCS tornado. But a 36 mile (4th-ish longest New England tornado), I don't think so.

My guess (hope?) is that WMUR confused a statement about the length of thunderstorm wind damage with the smaller tornado path.

  
000
NOUS41 KGYX 142212
PNSGYX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Gray Maine has completed a
survey of damage from the storm that affected western New
Hampshire during the evening on May 4th.  Based on the ground
survey, the NWS has determined that the damage was caused by a
tornado.    The tornado initially touched down in the extreme
southeastern corner of Charlestown near Fall Mountain Regional
High School and then tracked for about 35 miles east-
northeastward to near Route 127 in Webster.  While portions of
this path were inaccessible, nearly continuous damage was
observed as it crossed roadways along the path.

The most significant damage was observed in the Town of Warner
where winds are estimated to have gusted to between 80 and 100
mph, giving the tornado an E-F1 rating.

A more detailed public information statement will be issued
Tuesday.

$$

Jensenius
National Weather Service
Gray, Maine
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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:
  

000
NOUS41 KGYX 142212
PNSGYX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Gray Maine has completed a
survey of damage from the storm that affected western New
Hampshire during the evening on May 4th.  Based on the ground
survey, the NWS has determined that the damage was caused by a
tornado.    The tornado initially touched down in the extreme
southeastern corner of Charlestown near Fall Mountain Regional
High School and then tracked for about 35 miles east-
northeastward to near Route 127 in Webster.  While portions of
this path were inaccessible, nearly continuous damage was
observed as it crossed roadways along the path.

The most significant damage was observed in the Town of Warner
where winds are estimated to have gusted to between 80 and 100
mph, giving the tornado an E-F1 rating.

A more detailed public information statement will be issued
Tuesday.

$$

Jensenius
National Weather Service
Gray, Maine

Huh, how'd that fly under the radar...

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

18z 3 km NAM had a number of long tracking semi discrete cells across much of the Northeast, including a very strong one crossing the entirety of NH and VT.

Difference this time compared to most NE setups is that we have the thermos, especially the thermos aloft, in place almost unquestionably (barring convection tonight). If those surface winds can take more of a SSW (or even SW) component tomorrow afternoon, there's liable to be tornado problems given the degree of low level instability and moisture along with very strong deep layer shear for bowing segments and supercells. It would be nice to perhaps have a bit more of a pronounced shortwave, but I'm rather impressed nonetheless.

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