ct_yankee Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Kinda surprised SPC actually put out an MD for our area, usually they ignore these low but definitely not zero risk situations. LOL 5% watch probability: Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern Connecticut Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252138Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding 150 m2/s2. The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the severe threat appears quite low. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 minute ago, ct_yankee said: Kinda surprised SPC actually put out an MD out for our area, usually they ignore these low but definitely not zero risk situations. LOL 5% watch probability: Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern Connecticut Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252138Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding 150 m2/s2. The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the severe threat appears quite low. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018 Look at those cells over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Look at those cells over Long Island. Yeah, those are a bit more interesting than the rest, semi-discrete and definitely supercellular looking... Heading this way, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 8 hours ago, CT Rain said: Dews surging at the south coast. Impressive that dews jumped 20 degrees at HVN in 10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 Going to make the hike to NH today!!! Hopefully I can leave Danbury by 1:00 the latest. Or maybe southern VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 I wish OKX had did an 18z launch too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 So there saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: So there saying there's a chance. Their color scheme is telling. Farther south the MCD graphic is blue. This one is purple, meaning SPC clearly is concerned about tornado potential in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Their color scheme is telling. Farther south the MCD graphic is blue. This one is purple, meaning SPC clearly is concerned about tornado potential in this region. That's really interesting. Never knew that. So what is the difference between blue and red? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That's really interesting. Never knew that. So what is the difference between blue and red? Red is a strong preference for tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Their color scheme is telling. Farther south the MCD graphic is blue. This one is purple, meaning SPC clearly is concerned about tornado potential in this region. Yup saw that, We have had some destabilization with the sun being in and out all afternoon, See the temps/dews have increased as well as the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Red is a strong preference for tornado watch. gotcha...that's what I had thought. I like how they do that. I am quite surprised at the degree of sun down this way. I just wish we were closer to the better support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 83/73 ugh nastyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 So did Wiz head to NH or no? Still no warnings up there or watch yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: So did Wiz head to NH or no? Still no warnings up there or watch yet Nah. By the time I was able to go it was like 2:30-3:00. Might not be in a bad spot in Danbury for some type of action. Stronger instability here but removed from better support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 I don’t think we’ll see a watch today. Think it would have already haplened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don’t think we’ll see a watch today. Think it would have already haplened Lol we just got a surprise watch down here for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lol we just got a surprise watch down here for some reason just saw that. The probs are like extremely low too. Well maybe we will get a watch farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Based on radar trends, I'm doubtful we'll see a watch - actually, make that I'm almost certain we won't. I'm not seeing anything much that impresses, and the trend this late in the day can only go downward with loss of insolation... This time of year, if it hasn't happened by 6pm, it's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Does slight risk mean the same thing it always did? This seems like a real dud compared to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 29 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Does slight risk mean the same thing it always did? This seems like a real dud compared to others. This was always an iffy setup, that could have gone either way. The potential was there, but... The lack of a watch reflects the SPC's understanding that the day would probably underperform. I would expect a downgrade of the Slight with the next outlook issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Some rotation in Litchfield county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 A nice line rolling in through this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Serious lightening show going on right now, winds really picked up too... btw, so glad the site is back!! Didn't know what I was going to do this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 First really good torrential soaking in many months. Some lightning and thunder .80" in past half an hour. After the 1.37" yesterday finally have some water in my pond. Last water went dry in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Line seems to be sh*ttng the bed west of here as is usually the case by this point in the evening. At least we'll get more rain to keep everything damp and moldy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Phone is blowing up with alerts now... was the rotation radar indicated or someone report it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, tavwtby said: Phone is blowing up with alerts now... was the rotation radar indicated or someone report it? Alerts are for flash flooding. No longer severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Yeah just saw that... just started pouring as I write...got a good 3" yesterday, so ground can't take much more, nothing like down the coast yesterday tho, damn!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Get well soon, Ginxy! Thinking of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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