ct_yankee Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Today should about do it for severe season. See ya next May. SPC: On Day 4 (Friday 9-21) however, an initial upper trough is forecast to be advancing quickly eastward across the Great Lakes and later the Northeast U.S., and adjacent eastern Canada. This trough will be accompanied by a seasonably strong cold front, progged to shift across the Northeast and Ohio Valley and shift off the New England coast by the beginning of Day 5. While instability along the length of the front -- particularly across New England -- will likely remain limited, strong westerly/west-southwesterly flow through a deep tropospheric layer may support potential for gusty/damaging winds, with a frontal line of convection. Thus, a severe risk area is being included Day 4, from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley northeastward into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2018 Author Share Posted September 22, 2018 I couldn't believe we were in a D3 slight for Friday...did not see any potential at all this far east. With that said...Wednesday looks intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 On 9/22/2018 at 1:12 PM, weatherwiz said: I couldn't believe we were in a D3 slight for Friday...did not see any potential at all this far east. With that said...Wednesday looks intriguing This is going to be the day 4 slight that works out, after they chucked for Friday. I was a little (lot?) at a rehearsal dinner/welcome party in PSM but I don't remember any severe there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This is going to be the day 4 slight that works out, after they chucked for Friday. I was a little (lot?) at a rehearsal dinner/welcome party in PSM but I don't remember any severe there. Was surprised Wednesday is already a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Was surprised Wednesday is already a slight risk Wind fields are actually really impressive. 50 knots below 1 km for a good chunk of New England north of the Pike. Turning isn't great, but there is so much speed shear that helicity is actually fairly high 0-3 km. So classic high shear/low CAPE look. Big if is the dewpoint forecast. Models want to surge 70s up into NH, which helps produce a little CAPE anyway. If that busts it could just be a strong cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2018 Author Share Posted September 24, 2018 11 hours ago, OceanStWx said: This is going to be the day 4 slight that works out, after they chucked for Friday. I was a little (lot?) at a rehearsal dinner/welcome party in PSM but I don't remember any severe there. I was clueless on Friday. I also thought we were in the divergent portion of the ULJ which was quite strong. Wednesday isn't ideal but the potential is certainly there. I do think the main forcing could lag just slightly but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Forcing on Wednesday looks a little too late unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Wednesday looks real good in ern NY and VT. Supercells and Subarus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wednesday looks real good in ern NY and VT. Supercells and Subarus. Hopefully tossed Subarus by wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Wednesday looks real good in ern NY and VT. Supercells and Subarus. Wiz is on his way there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Definitely some hallmarks of http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/115477.pdf showing up for parts of WNE Wednesday. 0-3 km CAPE in the 50-80 J/kg range, 0-3 km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Definitely some hallmarks of http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/115477.pdf showing up for parts of WNE Wednesday. 0-3 km CAPE in the 50-80 J/kg range, 0-3 km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. Can we get any big uns in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we get any big uns in SNE? Your best bet may be today, because on Wednesday the best overlap of parameters is north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Your best bet may be today, because on Wednesday the best overlap of parameters is north and west. This afternoon looks quite interesting across CT. CAMS get some low-topped action going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This afternoon looks quite interesting across CT. CAMS get some low-topped action going We are wedged hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We are wedged hard HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building I wouldn't hold my breath....I have a feeling anything that occurs will be very underwhelming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Wiz chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building Respect the Quebec HP and NE flow wedge. Models always rush warm fronts . That being said.. let’s hope they’re right and we do tear a few across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Upper fifties and heavy rain all morning. Color me skeptical anything interesting happens this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Wiz chasing? Tomorrow I will be. Up around Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 58/58 here dews coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 58/58 here dews coming up Dews surging at the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Dews surging at the south coast. along with buckets of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 S coast (right now SW CT) but all along s coast may get pounded as rains ride boundary and move north. Still a high shear/low CAPE setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 gee - too bad this warm front wasn't 6 hours further along ... we'd -a had an EOF fest out there prolly - Already impressive turn around... It was 44 and spittin when I left my driveway this morning ... brrr. Only thing missing was fireplace aroma... But, it's managed to erode its way up to 60 despite the overruning mank. By the way, is/are there any decent web sources for estimated rainfall other than NWS Boston ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: gee - too bad this warm front wasn't 6 hours further along ... we'd -a had an EOF fest out there prolly - Already impressive turn around... It was 44 and spittin when I left my driveway this morning ... brrr. Only thing missing was fireplace aroma... But, it's managed to erode its way up to 60 despite the overruning mank. By the way, is/are there any decent web sources for estimated rainfall other than NWS Boston ? TT.. I use this site. I zoom in. You can set date ranges etc. https://water.weather.gov/precip/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: S coast (right now SW CT) but all along s coast may get pounded as rains ride boundary and move north. Still a high shear/low CAPE setup. Yessir, it is pounding. Humidity way up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Yessir, it is pounding. Humidity way up too. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 S coast poundage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.