OceanStWx Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 I don't love how the CAMs seem to be trending towards convection arriving later in the day for WNE. Like the HRRR has a pocket of clearing, but it doesn't move into New England until 19z. That's not a lot of time to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don't love how the CAMs seem to be trending towards convection arriving later in the day for WNE. Like the HRRR has a pocket of clearing, but it doesn't move into New England until 19z. That's not a lot of time to destabilize. Do you think cloud cover is a bit overdone? (This link I used to use to see cloud top temps doesn’t seem to have it anymore so not sure if there are indications of warning tops) but the IR doesn’t look horrible. But yeah I agree that the timing of things so late could be concerning. The NAM though does have some solid s/w energy moving through between 21z and 0z which I would think should initiate things sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Do you think cloud cover is a bit overdone? (This link I used to use to see cloud top temps doesn’t seem to have it anymore so not sure if there are indications of warning tops) but the IR doesn’t look horrible. But yeah I agree that the timing of things so late could be concerning. The NAM though does have some solid s/w energy moving through between 21z and 0z which I would think should initiate things sooner. Could be, but the HRRR is attempting to fire things around dawn on the nose of the LLJ. That could certainly muck up clear skies for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Could be, but the HRRR is attempting to fire things around dawn on the nose of the LLJ. That could certainly muck up clear skies for New England. I wonder if we can escape that down this way. Seems like this tries to happen northwest of here and that activity that does develop may try to strengthen through the morning as it heads into central/northern New England. If things sort of time right with that seems like it’s also just ahead of the warm front so maybe a line of broken supercells? Down here in CT we may escape and be able to push well into the mid 80’s for highs...although nothing really approaches (per 3km NAM) until 0z and then completely falls apart but then a huge redevelopment around 6z. Not much of a cap tomorrow so and some of the soundings down here are quite impressive by 20-21z so if a cell can pop and there is enough upper support around it has plenty to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder if we can escape that down this way. Seems like this tries to happen northwest of here and that activity that does develop may try to strengthen through the morning as it heads into central/northern New England. If things sort of time right with that seems like it’s also just ahead of the warm front so maybe a line of broken supercells? Down here in CT we may escape and be able to push well into the mid 80’s for highs...although nothing really approaches (per 3km NAM) until 0z and then completely falls apart but then a huge redevelopment around 6z. Not much of a cap tomorrow so and some of the soundings down here are quite impressive by 20-21z so if a cell can pop and there is enough upper support around it has plenty to work with A lot of the flashy parameters are basically 3 km and lower, so I wonder if it is just a crappy day to be radar operator where storms are shallow and subtly severe or clearly tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: A lot of the flashy parameters are basically 3 km and lower, so I wonder if it is just a crappy day to be radar operator where storms are shallow and subtly severe or clearly tornadic. That’s certainly a possibility..and would virtually mean that the meh mid-level lapse rates don’t matter in this case. I know at least the 12z NAM bufget showed 0-1km CAPE values almost at 100 J. LCL’s too are quite low and there is a great deal of CAPE and shear around the LCL height. Storm motion too almost looks like that alone can enhance helicity even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Albany FTW today? But some WF action I think as well. Tomorrow also looks good in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Tors SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Dawning clear. Destabilization won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 I wonder if this is a day where Albany and Upton would do a special balloon launch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 A Special Balloon Watch May be in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Plenty of clouds in W MA right now, that won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Nam been doing well with severe lately around these parts. Already prefered by OKX this morning. Severe day ahead, be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam been doing well with severe lately around these parts. Already prefered by OKX this morning. Severe day ahead, be prepared. Things this morning look quite intriguing although there are still some uncertainties...or disagreements. but instability is looking incredibly impressive...we could be looking at MLCape values approaching 2000-3000 when shear is increasing. HRRR/3km NAM do hint at some discrete like cells later on this afternoon and early evening and with secondary development around 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 That activity with the warm front though may end up crewing things up a bit but at the same time enhancing potential locally. I'd watch that though this afternoon as it moves through central and northern New England depending on how the shear situation works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 From an outdoor obs stand point we don't have the good 10-15 mph breeze that has been present for the more memorable severe storms this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 good sun here, 84.3/74.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 2 hours ago, PowderBeard said: From an outdoor obs stand point we don't have the good 10-15 mph breeze that has been present for the more memorable severe storms this summer. The atmosphere is saving all of its energy for the tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Not even a mesoscale discussion yet. Still a bit early maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Not even a mesoscale discussion yet. Still a bit early maybe? Yes. We really don't want things popping up this early (well if you want severe). The best overlap of ingredients doesn't seem to be until between like 6:00 PM and possibly as late as 2-3:00 AM. Butt he focus area seems to be 6-10 PM. Still torn on around 2-3 AM...really mixed signals but some of the signals are a bit impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Saturday seems the best day for eastern SNE, while the tornado threat exists tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 First little wave. Been thundering for about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 CAMs were always (well, since last night) showing basically two waves of storms, one around 19z which has already materialized, and then another after 0z (for some models well after) so it's playing out the way it was modeled, so far... That said, the good shear seems to be hanging back west well behind this first line of storms, and who knows how much instability will be left later on, so... As always, we wait, and we'll see. It is what it is. I've learned never to get exited about these kind of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 Going to try and get to BDL from Branford after work. Might even head towards Granby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 :yawner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 I think the tornado probability of this is decreasing a bit but HRRR continues to be quite active later on. Should see some damaging storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 And we have an appropriately meh MD out. hard to get exited about "a few marginal supercell structures": Mesoscale Discussion 1307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NY/PA...northern NJ...southern VT...and western MA/CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171842Z - 172115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to locally damaging winds should continue to increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop and move eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is well underway across parts of eastern NY/PA behind morning showers and thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude lead shortwave trough over New England as of 1830Z. Continued diurnal heating across this region given cloud breaks noted on visible satellite imagery will allow surface temperatures to generally reach into the mid to upper 80s, and plentiful low-level moisture will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a warm front. However, poor mid-level lapse rates noted on 12Z soundings from ALB, BUF, and PIT will likely temper even greater instability this afternoon. The 18Z sounding from ALB modified for current conditions shows some steepening of low-level lapse rates, and this process should continue with eastward extent across western MA/CT and southern VT as the surface warm front lifts northward. Recent VWPs from BGM, CCX, and ENX show low-level southerly winds veering quickly to southwesterly in the 0-6 km AGL layer, although the magnitude of these winds remain generally limited (at or below 30-35 kt). Even so, around 25-35 of resultant effective bulk shear should prove adequate for scattered thunderstorms organizing into multicell clusters. This convection will mainly pose an isolated strong to damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening given the steepening low-level lapse rates and modestly strengthening low to mid-level flow. A few marginal supercell structures with some hail threat may also occur with south/westward extent where instability is stronger. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out along the warm front given the locally backed near-surface winds locally enhancing 0-1 km SRH. Given the expected increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to address this threat. ..Gleason/Dial.. 08/17/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 My daily 1.0” of rain in 20 minutes underway yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 ALY did an 18z balloon launch. Really not bad looking at all. Decent CAPE and good shear. Definitely an area to watch. I posted on social media a while ago but models definitely hinting at like eastern NY right around the MA/CT border for good potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 How come links don't seem to work anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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