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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s more than that. CAPE has been there,  but there has been lots of ridging or subsidence east of ORH. When heights rise, That is a killer. Great for the beaches but not lawns. It’s been better lately. 

A bit of splitting hairs though. That ridging and subsidence is sort of what I mean in regards to wind direction. That's what put them in dry spot in first place. Sort of same thing

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20 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

A bit of splitting hairs though. That ridging and subsidence is sort of what I mean in regards to wind direction. That's what put them in dry spot in first place. Sort of same thing

Well it’s not really wind direction though. At least for surface. Anyways looks like wet weather enroute starting Saturday. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it’s not really wind direction though. At least for surface. Anyways looks like wet weather enroute starting Saturday. 

I refer back to some of Tip's long posts about the 'marine infested layer' that seems to manifest itself on the south and southwest wind directions. Often resulting in a easily distinguished evaporation of cu growth in our severe events.

I'm still hoping we see an elevated event with second by second lightning at some point this winter.

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4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I refer back to some of Tip's long posts about the 'marine infested layer' that seems to manifest itself on the south and southwest wind directions. Often resulting in a easily distinguished evaporation of cu growth in our severe events.

I'm still hoping we see an elevated event with second by second lightning at some point this winter.

But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years.

Doesn't the position of the ridge lend itself to having a surface direction somewhat off the water no matter what with a situation like that? Even if winds are weak it will be onshore. If you get stiff winds, almost always S or SW with a big ridge that boasts solid CAPE?

 

Of course it differs with the WAR location. 

You can have the CAPE but it seems like there is definitely some ultra small scale aspect of this that inhibits thunderstorm/cu growth

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2 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Doesn't the position of the ridge lend itself to having a surface direction somewhat off the water no matter what with a situation like that? Even if winds are weak it will be onshore. If you get stiff winds, almost always S or SW with a big ridge that boasts solid CAPE?

 

Of course it differs with the WAR location. 

You can have the CAPE but it seems like there is definitely some ultra small scale aspect of this that inhibits thunderstorm/cu growth

We’ve had plenty of days with SW winds and storms. Especially this time of year. But when you move into an environment that is torched aloft, subsidence instead of lift, you kill anything moving east.

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4 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Doesn't the position of the ridge lend itself to having a surface direction somewhat off the water no matter what with a situation like that? Even if winds are weak it will be onshore. If you get stiff winds, almost always S or SW with a big ridge that boasts solid CAPE?

 

Of course it differs with the WAR location. 

You can have the CAPE but it seems like there is definitely some ultra small scale aspect of this that inhibits thunderstorm/cu growth

This can sort of go in hand with what Scott is saying but alot of the problem too is upper-level support...or in this case lack of. With the higher heights out that way it's unlikely you'll get into the better upper support...or it will be tough for the upper-level support to progress east. IMO, the marine layer gets used a little bit too loosely...especially this time of year. 

 

When it comes to convection I think upper-level support plays a substantial role in the evolution and degree of sustainability. This is what I am doing for my senior research...wich I have only scrapped the surface at starting :yikes:

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This can sort of go in hand with what Scott is saying but alot of the problem too is upper-level support...or in this case lack of. With the higher heights out that way it's unlikely you'll get into the better upper support...or it will be tough for the upper-level support to progress east. IMO, the marine layer gets used a little bit too loosely...especially this time of year. 

 

When it comes to convection I think upper-level support plays a substantial role in the evolution and degree of sustainability. This is what I am doing for my senior research...wich I have only scrapped the surface at starting :yikes:

Severe season is fading...you can attack your research soon while us pros concentrate on winter. 

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18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years.

I'm not really part of this conversation ... .so, taken with a grain' - 

But 2000 as a number ... doesn't really determine much - I figure you know this ... but many don't.    

If there is 3000 J over the Capital District down throughout White Plains and NYC and so forth, but because the air mass may be passing from ACY -CON as a mean trajectory ... that 3000 J may only be 2000 J in that region and points SE.  Now ... if the threshold(s) for the spectrum of convection, ranging from ... just CU to TCU to CB to severe wielding CBs, requires 2000 ...2500 ... 3000 ...3000+ etc... that's how that contamination from the Shelf water pass-over over of the air mass can throw a mitigation into the works. 

He mentioned my name in deference to taint ... I'm just describing that picture a bit here -

 

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there is some room for a strong or severe thunderstorm overnight and through tomorrow afternoon right around where the warm front gets...might stay offshore but some models bring it into southern CT. Something to watch b/c instability will be there just south of the front with some decent shear. 

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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not really part of this conversation ... .so, taken with a grain' - 

But 2000 as a number ... doesn't really determine much - I figure you know this ... but many don't.    

If there is 3000 J over the Capital District down throughout White Plains and NYC and so forth, but because the air mass may be passing from ACY -CON as a mean trajectory ... that 3000 J may only be 2000 J in that region and points SE.  Now ... if the threshold(s) for the spectrum of convection, ranging from ... just CU to TCU to CB to severe wielding CBs, requires 2000 ...2500 ... 3000 ...3000+ etc... that's how that contamination from the Shelf water pass-over over of the air mass can throw a mitigation into the works. 

He mentioned my name in deference to taint ... I'm just describing that picture a bit here -

 

Exactly

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Warm front cutting the region tomorrow with soup air ... even a splash of sun here and there. Low LCLs. Watch that

Decent energy diving into the MA. Scattered severe and training type storms seem possible with the diffluent flow, though I suspect the best goes up through the HV, as per usual.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Decent energy diving into the MA. Scattered severe and training type storms seem possible with the diffluent flow, though I suspect the best goes up through the HV, as per usual.

Mm, predicated on the assumption that the sun can penetrate through and heat at least some... 

this is worse than an April back-door pounding my god this schit is perniciously fisted in

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14 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Watch for several hailers tomorrow. Maybe even a few cells producing severe hail (1-1.50''). Sort of shocked we aren't in at least a marginal. But I think tomorrow is a bit active 

What are the freezing altitudes?   

The general synopsis: I tend to think not with heights so high...  

Doesn't mean you can't ... but, sustaining updraft through a sub-freezing pressure level is how you get hail ... with heights so high it's hard to imagine the glaciation depths being that massive.   

As this trough opens up, it's nadir is all of 582 dm, and filling as it goes, not falling. 

I've been hammering this but it's an odd atmospheric rarity to sustain cut-off features at mid and upper levels with heights that high to begin with - both a plausible atonement to the state of everything but ... and a course for a digression no one apparently wants to admit or have.  

Excluding that being a ominous sign for a moment ... this looks like green tinted rain curtains more than anything else.  

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What are the freezing altitudes?   

The general synopsis: I tend to think not with heights so high...  

Doesn't mean you can't ... but, sustaining updraft through a sub-freezing pressure level is how you get hail ... with heights so high it's hard to imagine the glaciation depths being that massive.   

As this trough opens up, it's nadir is all of 582 dm, and filling as it goes, not falling. 

I've been hammering this but it's an odd atmospheric rarity to sustain cut-off features at mid and upper levels with heights that high to begin with - both a plausible atonement to the state of everything but ... and a course for a digression no one apparently wants to admit or have.  

Excluding that being a ominous sign for a moment ... this looks like green tinted rain curtains more than anything else.  

 

Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape. 

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55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape. 

Great call on the hail Wiz

https://twitter.com/bobmaxon/status/1029382823508148225

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not to be the recognition/accolade police but he said, "...Severe hailers"  

Pea sized hail ? ...doesn't cut it.

I still don't see severe hail as a primary event threat today... This is a wind and deluge issues, although honestly I'm a bit surprised that continuous lightning took place. 

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be the recognition/accolade police but he said, "...Severe hailers"  

Pea sized hail ? ...doesn't cut it.

I still don't see severe hail as a primary event threat today... This is a wind and deluge issues, although honestly I'm a bit surprised that continuous lightning took place. 

Well you said no hail at all so yea great call Wiz

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM is very interesting for Friday. 

Indeed.. KBOS sounding at 00z SAT is nice... but ML Lapse Rates of 5.5 C/KM and 0-6km shear of 25-30 kts may temper what looks to be a decent threat for severe

KBAF at 18z FRI looks really nice, but 25 kts shear is meh and 0-1km SRH is around 80 m2/s2... KORH at 00z SAT also looks nice, but 25 kts 0-6km shear and just above 5.0 C/KM ML Lapse rates make it meh

Still, if models can pick up some more shear, could be a nice chase day for you

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