CT Rain Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 I'm pretty meh for tomorrow around here. Looks pretty blah with very weak wind fields. Looks a lot better for Ekster and Legro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm pretty meh for tomorrow around here. Looks pretty blah with very weak wind fields. Looks a lot better for Ekster and Legro. I'm thinking the extreme western part of the state may be able to get in on some action although hi-res stuff weakens things rather quickly. I'll be in Danbury tomorrow so hopefully something happens. Seems like they have had about 20 thunderstorms this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm pretty meh for tomorrow around here. Looks pretty blah with very weak wind fields. Looks a lot better for Ekster and Legro. Shear FTL down south. It's even pretty meh up here (effective shear around 25-30 kts). But I'm betting we end up closer to 35 and get some organization up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Kind of like 09-10, when BWI had 10% more snowfall than CAR. (410% of avg, to 63%) The above percentages were done using (improperly) the 81-10 norms. Compared to 71-00 norms, the numbers are 431% and 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Shear FTL down south. It's even pretty meh up here (effective shear around 25-30 kts). But I'm betting we end up closer to 35 and get some organization up here. The 12km NAM has somewhat better low level shear which was interesting but it seems like it's on its own with a funky looking 850hpa jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The 12km NAM has somewhat better low level shear which was interesting but it seems like it's on its own with a funky looking 850hpa jet. that model seems to want to overdo the LLJ at times...or quite a few times. Also sometimes it seems like it goes a bit more aggressive with 700-500 lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 What algorithm does bufkit use for it's precipitation generation? I was looking at IXD (Olathe, KS) and NAM bufkit was showing heavy rain like 10:00 PM and completely saturated profile. Looks to me like the best chance for anything was during the morning and then the front moves through and didn't see much for lift overnight. NWS though did have 10% chance for overnight but bufkit was going aggressive. MOS too did have some decent probs I guess. I haven't really used MOS heavily enough to know how good it is with those precip/thunder outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 HREF is definitely more focused on the northern zones, but also includes last night's 00z runs for input too. The CAM trends today seem fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 8 yards lolol....the width of a decent size house....how does that even count lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 Nice sounding from western CT from 18z NAM Nest. too bad shear is meh...not a huge fan of that tiny isothermal-ish layer either...though wondering if that is true...makes the llvl lapse rates weaker a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: 8 yards lolol....the width of a decent size house....how does that even count lol? I mean I can see how they would just measure the flattened corn, and it's hard to tell how large the outer circulation was without damage, but yeah maybe give it something a little longer than a typical Brady first down scramble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2018 Author Share Posted August 6, 2018 The 18z NAM NEST sounding for Waterbury at 8:00 isn't bad looking. Just over 1700 Cape with 32 m/s of shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 There is video from the storm on Sat, Kretschmann Brewery Facebook page has video from their security cam up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Where's the convective debris I was promised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 A little too moist for the 10 at 10 rule, but clear enough that low/mid 90s again will be likely. Our volunteer interns are running the convective worksheet now, but our forecast should be enough for around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Also kudos to the HRRR for nailing the bow echo that blew through The County this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Also kudos to the HRRR for nailing the bow echo that blew through The County this morning. good call on the shear too for up your way...30-40 knots of bulk shear and 0-6km shear. Looks good up your way for some nasty stuff. May even have to watch any discrete storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 Not as impressed down this way anymore. I think we'll see some storms but a bit of dry air above 850 and just meh wind fields. Ample CAPE though and some inverted-v looks...maybe we can muster up a few stronger storms. we'll see. Tomorrow night NAM NEST has a decent line move through here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 what are the soundings like ? just the physical observation (satellite) and sfc obs together give the appearance of CAP/CIN'ed shut tighter than a bull's as at fly time no matter how much CAPE there is... but, maybe we just need an exceedingly high convective threshold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 alright ... just in the last 20 minutes (of cousre) there are some oreo cookies over some of els so... maybe we can just heat things so far beyond guidance, that guidance based stability is basically "miss" guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what are the soundings like ? just the physical observation (satellite) and sfc obs together give the appearance of CAP/CIN'ed shut tighter than a bull's as at fly time no matter how much CAPE there is... but, maybe we just need an exceedingly high convective threshold ? Here is a point-and click from western CT from the 12z NAM NEST: Here is from one central-ish ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 Not much CIN out there now that we're like 90/75 lol Some storms - and maybe an isolated wet microburst given about 1200 j/kg of DCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 that's gotta be some of the lowest 0-6km shear I've ever seen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 @OceanStWx Do you happen to know what the equation/the methodology (or where to find it) behind the calculation of the 12hr/24hr severe weather probabilities from the SPC SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Not as impressed down this way anymore. I think we'll see some storms but a bit of dry air above 850 and just meh wind fields. Ample CAPE though and some inverted-v looks...maybe we can muster up a few stronger storms. we'll see. Tomorrow night NAM NEST has a decent line move through here though 28 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Not much CIN out there now that we're like 90/75 lol Some storms - and maybe an isolated wet microburst given about 1200 j/kg of DCAPE. I think down SNE way it's going to be more of the typical "air mass" type thunderstorms (though there is a little bit of a convergence zone from N NJ into W MA). Given the forecast soundings any of those air mass storms could drop a wet microburst like Ryan said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: @OceanStWx Do you happen to know what the equation/the methodology (or where to find it) behind the calculation of the 12hr/24hr severe weather probabilities from the SPC SREF? http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/98458.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/98458.pdf ohhh perfect!!! I had found some papers but this one is exactly what I'm looking for. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 SNE scattered stuff is tonight after 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 the early towers are narrow and tall... when I was a kid I learned to associate that with chances for later on, when there's crispiness at the top of eager heights - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 Sunday could be a little fun depending on where the boundary sets up. Wind fields suck and mid-level lapse rates aren't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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