General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

[Modfan]

Just now, CT Rain said:

 

Thanks!

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The Webster tornado is being classified as a high end EF-1. The pics I saw made me think EF1 or EF2.    Was there ever any debris ball signature?

Interesting that that small area has had three in a short period of time.

If my memory is serving me well I think the Merrimack Valley in Ma. area has gone at least 20 years without a tornado.

[CT Rain]

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The Webster tornado is being classified as a high end EF-1. The pics I saw made me think EF1 or EF2.    Was there ever any debris ball signature?

Interesting that that small area has had three in a short period of time.

There was no TDS with this one. My guess is that the circulation was very shallow (maybe only 1 or 2,000 feet) so any lofted debris was under the radar beam.

I thought it could be low end EF-2 based on some of the damage pics and the similarities to Revere. But I know Glenn and Kevin did the survey and they're great so I take their word for it. Those roofs may not have been the most well built and there wasn't a whole lot of other structural damage besides siding and shingles blown off. The tree damage didn't look as severe as the May 15 stuff in CT either. 

[Great Snow 1717]

36 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

There was no TDS with this one. My guess is that the circulation was very shallow (maybe only 1 or 2,000 feet) so any lofted debris was under the radar beam.

I thought it could be low end EF-2 based on some of the damage pics and the similarities to Revere. But I know Glenn and Kevin did the survey and they're great so I take their word for it. Those roofs may not have been the most well built and there wasn't a whole lot of other structural damage besides siding and shingles blown off. The tree damage didn't look as severe as the May 15 stuff in CT either. 

Have you come across any video showing the tornado? From everything I've read it was rain wrapped. 

[ct_yankee]

6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Have you come across any video showing the tornado? From everything I've read it was rain wrapped. 

I have yet to see any persuasive video of any of the May 15th tornadoes. This one was just as rain-wrapped as those were if not more so, so there might not be any video. We don't often get the photogenic kind of tornado around here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

If my memory is serving me well I think the Merrimack Valley in Ma. area has gone at least 20 years without a tornado.

There was one in Georgetown in 1991. I think that is considered the MMV

Concord, MA had one in 2016, but that’s not the MMV

[weatherwiz]

Late Tuesday could be quite interesting. Quite unstable through the night with good shear and s/w moving through with the front. Good track of the s/w too. 

[Great Snow 1717]

16 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There was one in Georgetown in 1991. I think that is considered the MMV

Concord, MA had one in 2016, but that’s not the MMV

In a limited search online it seems as if the 1991 Georgetown tornado was the last to hit Essex County. Everyone defines the MV area differently. I would include it as being part of the MV area. According to the Tornado Project Online(data from 1950-2012) the last tornado in Essex County prior to 1991 occurred in 1972. Originally I was planning to compile a list of tornadoes that have hit the MV area but I now want to come up with a list of tornadoes that have been reported in Essex County.

The 1890 tornado that hit Lawrence has always intrigued me because it hit an area that I am quite familiar with. According to what I have read the tornado first touched down in Fisksdale and then lifted off the ground before hitting Billerica, then lifting off once more before hitting Lawrence. The funnel cloud was last observed over Newburyport but it did not touch down there.

[OceanStWx]

21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

In a limited search online it seems as if the 1991 Georgetown tornado was the last to hit Essex County. Everyone defines the MV area differently. I would include it as being part of the MV area. According to the Tornado Project Online(data from 1950-2012) the last tornado in Essex County prior to 1991 occurred in 1972. Originally I was planning to compile a list of tornadoes that have hit the MV area but I now want to come up with a list of tornadoes that have been reported in Essex County.

The 1890 tornado that hit Lawrence has always intrigued me because it hit an area that I am quite familiar with. According to what I have read the tornado first touched down in Fisksdale and then lifted off the ground before hitting Billerica, then lifting off once more before hitting Lawrence. The funnel cloud was last observed over Newburyport but it did not touch down there.

I'm guessing the tornado project uses the NCEI Storm Events Database (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ also 1950-present). 

Going back beyond that you'll probably have to sift through a combination of Storm Data, and things like the Grazulis book on significant tornadoes.

[MaineJayhawk]

On ‎8‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 7:43 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Was there a confirmed tornado in CT yesterday?

i know some of the cells were close...haven’t yet checked BOX info

I want nothing to do with them.  I have no idea how people can live in an area where they are common.  I would lose it.

I lived in Kansas for 13 years and never saw a tornado, nor did any touch down near where I lived.  Have had three pretty close to me since I moved to Maine.  Plains storms are pretty magnificent to watch roll in though

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I lived in Kansas for 13 years and never saw a tornado, nor did any touch down near where I lived.  Have had three pretty close to me since I moved to Maine.  Plains storms are pretty magnificent to watch roll in though

New England tied with Oklahoma for the number of tornadoes this year! (12)

[Cyclone-68]

We out EF1 everyone 

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

New England tied with Oklahoma for the number of tornadoes this year! (12)

Watch this fall be incredibly active and OK ends up blowing us away when they finish the year at 76 lol. New England right now is the New York Mets of April.

Also, do you know a website or source which tracks confirmed tornadoes (up to date)? For example, if I wanted to see the number of confirmed tornadoes so far this year back state and ranking, etc.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Watch this fall be incredibly active and OK ends up blowing us away when they finish the year at 76 lol. New England right now is the New York Mets of April.

Also, do you know a website or source which tracks confirmed tornadoes (up to date)? For example, if I wanted to see the number of confirmed tornadoes so far this year back state and ranking, etc.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#torclim

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#torclim

thanks! 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#torclim

I knew this year was pretty low, but didn't realize just how huge of a turd 2018 had been laying in the TOR department until looking at the cumulative graphs at the bottom. Near record low total for this time of year.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I knew this year was pretty low, but didn't realize just how huge of a turd 2018 had been laying in the TOR department until looking at the cumulative graphs at the bottom. Near record low total for this time of year.

Yeah, I had mentioned it earlier in this thread I think, but 2009 was consider a huge bust season, but would blow away this year.

[OceanStWx]

OK at 21% of normal, New England at 171% 

[weatherwiz]

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

OK at 21% of normal, New England at 171% 

Is AWIPS II free? 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Is AWIPS II free? 

I don't know the exact cost, but we paid a pretty good sized contract to Raytheon for it.

The closest thing I've seen online is SimuAWIPS, but that may have changed names now. That's also fee based.

But honestly you can get most everything you could want from free sites plus GR2 and 3.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't know the exact cost, but we paid a pretty good sized contract to Raytheon for it.

The closest thing I've seen online is SimuAWIPS, but that may have changed names now. That's also fee based.

But honestly you can get most everything you could want from free sites plus GR2 and 3.

yeah SimuAwips is not free anymore. I actually visited it last week for the first time in many years. I was going to try and see if our school could get it (not that I would be there to use it probably) but if its cost base its not happening. My works to get the school to get Max Software from the Weather company went unsuccessful...even though everyone I talked to wanted it..of course the answer was "there is no money". 

I really love the stuff you can do with AWIPS...there are free sites where you can do similar stuff? If not, I would look into a subscription.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah SimuAwips is not free anymore. I actually visited it last week for the first time in many years. I was going to try and see if our school could get it (not that I would be there to use it probably) but if its cost base its not happening. My works to get the school to get Max Software from the Weather company went unsuccessful...even though everyone I talked to wanted it..of course the answer was "there is no money". 

I really love the stuff you can do with AWIPS...there are free sites where you can do similar stuff? If not, I would look into a subscription.

I mean you can drag the mouse to produce cross sections on Tropical Tidbits now. That's pretty slick for a free site. And a handful do point and click forecast soundings too, which is something that used to be a big leg up for AWIPS.

[OceanStWx]

Tomorrow is interesting.

Got the surface environment for higher CAPE. Have the forcing in the approaching shortwave. 

Shear is a little meh, but models can sometimes underplay that especially in the northern areas. 

CAMs have a well developed squall line, but debatable on whether updrafts are quite organized enough for severe weather (there are some helicity swaths in there). 

SPC seems indifferent. I am feeling like I'll be issuing a few warnings though.

[OceanStWx]

Hodographs are pretty straight, and from the SW. So upscale growth into a squall line makes sense.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean you can drag the mouse to produce cross sections on Tropical Tidbits now. That's pretty slick for a free site. And a handful do point and click forecast soundings too, which is something that used to be a big leg up for AWIPS.

Tropical Tidbits has really become a great site...especially for those cross sections. Coolwx is awesome too...especially for checking SGZ layer and omega within the zone. I still really love cod...excellent website and they're point-and-click soundings are top of the line. I wish tidbits had half the parameters that cod has but they have a few cool parameters too that cod doesn't have...like MLCAPE and wind crossovers. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean you can drag the mouse to produce cross sections on Tropical Tidbits now. That's pretty slick for a free site. And a handful do point and click forecast soundings too, which is something that used to be a big leg up for AWIPS.

Pivotalweather is great for point and click soundings

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018080612&fh=0&r=us_ne&dpdt

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Tomorrow is interesting.

Got the surface environment for higher CAPE. Have the forcing in the approaching shortwave. 

Shear is a little meh, but models can sometimes underplay that especially in the northern areas. 

CAMs have a well developed squall line, but debatable on whether updrafts are quite organized enough for severe weather (there are some helicity swaths in there). 

SPC seems indifferent. I am feeling like I'll be issuing a few warnings though.

yeah I think the SPC is downplaying tomorrow. They seem to think there are uncertainties with the degree of destabilization but I think we'll have plenty of instability. Low-level lapse rates too not very far from super-adiabatic which should help with wind gusts despite the shear...shear looked a bit better a few days ago I thought. Nice inverted-v look too on soundings 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think the SPC is downplaying tomorrow. They seem to think there are uncertainties with the degree of destabilization but I think we'll have plenty of instability. Low-level lapse rates too not very far from super-adiabatic which should help with wind gusts despite the shear...shear looked a bit better a few days ago I thought. Nice inverted-v look too on soundings 

I mean they talk about convective debris, but models are pretty meh on convection late today/tonight. HRRR simulated satellite is nearly clear tomorrow morning.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean they talk about convective debris, but models are pretty meh on convection late today/tonight. HRRR simulated satellite is nearly clear tomorrow morning.

Even if we had some convective debris I would assume it's high level clouds...which at meant at worst means most areas shave a few degrees off their highs. With dewpoints into the lower 70's that won't mean all that much. Models still spitting out about 1500 MLCape. SPC SREF even showing 90=% probs for MLCape to exceed 30% and even some 30% probs for exceeding 2000

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

New England tied with Oklahoma for the number of tornadoes this year! (12)

Kind of like 09-10, when BWI had 10% more snowfall than CAR.  (410% of avg, to 63%)