weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2018 Author Share Posted May 4, 2018 Don't see this in the northeast very often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Picnic tables hurled into the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Don't see this in the northeast very often The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours. Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Picnic tables hurled into the air. Sorry Bryce, Minnie and Mickey have to wait. Daddy is pulling up a radar loop from CXX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2018 Author Share Posted May 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours. Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now. Thanks!! Noted for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours. Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now. Terrain is decent for viewing of storms in that area of NY and especially in southern Quebec. A shame this one couldn't wait until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 That storm south of Potsdam is quickly ramping and tightening up. Ain't passing over nothing but trees, but wouldn't be surprised if it were producing already. Anchored to the warm front but surface based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, BillHarding said: How'd you get those to stream online? I want to setup a cam or two at my place that has good views but I have crappy DSL internet and don't want the stream taking up half of the bandwidth. I use the Nestcam. Just have standard cable connection. Finally bright sun coming out with that muggy feel. 75/62 and should rise now even though its late in the day HRRR has that severe cell going right over me in C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Strong supercell just passed Potsdam NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 This is going to be a pain in the azz to warn on. In these high shear environments, the storm height is effectively taller than it appears on radar. When the updraft gets tilted (due to the shear) it is longer relative to its height. So when looking for a core to a certain level, these storms may not show it before they start producing severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 May need 70kt to pick up my rooster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Big BWER north of Old Forge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Looks like the storm entering Berkshire Co. is starting to spin, albeit weakly / loosely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Looks like the storm entering Berkshire Co. is starting to spin, albeit weakly / loosely. It's a nice left mover, so probably still a bit elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's a nice left mover, so probably still a bit elevated. Yup - I'm surprised the RM fell apart so quickly over NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's a nice left mover, so probably still a bit elevated. Agree. Looks like a left split but the environment shouldn't support that, big loopy hodos even down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Agree. Looks like a left split but the environment shouldn't support that, big loopy hodos even down there. Hodographs straighten out quite a bit above 1 km, which would support the elevated left movers. But of course still a decent tornado risk from the surface based right movers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hodographs straighten out quite a bit above 1 km, which would support the elevated left movers. But of course still a decent tornado risk from the surface based right movers. Fair. I was looking around Albany where winds are more backed, but you're right - this supports an elevated left mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Mmm. Look at that storm south of Tupper Lake. Must be giving some beavers a hell of a blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 This is going to be bad. 30+ mph gusts already and the storm isn’t even here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 -1 NROT with the storm in western MA. That's probably the "lowest" value I've ever seen. Considering +1 is important for tornadogenesis in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I was just reading the outlook and they mentioned numerous severe gusts across MI...I don't think the thermodynamic environment there was impressive either. Perhaps the high Dcape will help? Maybe it is a bit noteworthy too that we were able to get some pretty decent gusts yesterday and you would think today conveciton would be much deeper. but idk...MLcapes less than 1000...tough to get truly excited it was a vitriolic test of the emergency dyckhead system - it was only a test. I.e., just yankin vested chains - No, like I said to you a couple days ago, this Thur/Fri period looked good and always had. I'm surprised a bit that yesterday didn't work out better but, I noticed in the morning that we were relying on elevate moisture as opposed to SBCAPE - I think that's why things behaved CIN like. Today is interesting as it's evolved to be less about CAPE and lapse rates/instability and more about momentum transfer - although the helicity up in VT must got some spooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Burlington radar out? S.W. of SLK. Looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Well, that chilly lake doesn't appear to be hampering convection downstream. Kaboom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Well, that chilly lake doesn't appear to be hampering convection downstream. Kaboom. The forcing is starting to hit that reservoir of steep low level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: -1 NROT with the storm in western MA. That's probably the "lowest" value I've ever seen. Considering +1 is important for tornadogenesis in New England. Anticyclonic tornado in the Berks? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Anticyclonic tornado in the Berks? lol That storm passed over plenty of >2000 ft terrain up on Savoy "mountain". Who knows what happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Yeah, north side of bowing segments is going to be the place to watch (like near RME right now). That puts the focus through VT, as the tail end of the line is lagging through the Southern Tier at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, north side of bowing segments is going to be the place to watch (like near RME right now). That puts the focus through VT, as the tail end of the line is lagging through the Southern Tier at the moment. As long as it spares Manchester, VT. Playing in a tournament there in the morning. Don’t want to be shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: As long as it spares Manchester, VT. Playing in a tournament there in the morning. Don’t want to be shut down. Locally, I'm ready to knock down the corners of a few dog legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.