OceanStWx Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Early morning spinners spinning due north up his fanny on 91 I'm intrigued anyway. Wind fields increase nicely towards 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 If enough 0-1km or 0-3km CAPE can develop tomorrow it does look interesting around 0z. llvl shear is fairly nice looking...not too weak and not too strong and some good directional shear going on as well in the 0-3km layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 Looks like mlvl lapse rates steepen a bit too which helps keep it quite unstable and even bump CAPE up a bit in the evening and early overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'm actually a little interested in the warm front sloshing on shore in the morning too. Maybe Ryan's day starts early. Yup. Also things get interesting late day with wind fields cranking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 The biggest concern is going to be some weak height rises through much of the day and whether we can get a good forcing mechanism. Looks like the majority of the s/w forcing remains well to our west. We will be uncapped which will certainly help but our only source for buoyancy is just from unstable llvl air but nothing to really give an extra boost of support. EDIT: Nevermind...I was hovering over the wrong period looks like we will have subtle s/w moving through tomorrow but concern of height rises remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Sooooo.... 21z SREF, latest HRRR, 00z NAM definitely have me concerned about a midday tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Sooooo.... 21z SREF, latest HRRR, 00z NAM definitely have me concerned about a midday tornado threat. You’re not kidding...holy crap. Tremendous directional shear in the 0-3km layer with sufficient CAPE. Anything that gets going has plenty to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: Sooooo.... 21z SREF, latest HRRR, 00z NAM definitely have me concerned about a midday tornado threat. Figures. My car is out of commission so I can't chase this one even if something does happen - which it will because I can't chase. So it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Lapse rates are pretty atrocious; not a lot of forcing either. But anything that does get going could certainly put down a spinner today given the CAPE, helicity, low LCL combo. Bad LRs are always a giant red flag for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lapse rates are pretty atrocious; not a lot of forcing either. But anything that does get going could certainly put down a spinner today given the CAPE, helicity, low LCL combo. Bad LRs are always a giant red flag for me though. Depends on what you’re looking for. Many of our late July and August tornadoes occur with crap lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Depends on what you’re looking for. Many of our late July and August tornadoes occur with crap lapse rates. Realize you're probably quite busy, but why don't lapse rates matter as much for tornadoes later in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoth said: Realize you're probably quite busy, but why don't lapse rates matter as much for tornadoes later in the summer? Part of the reason is typically later in the summer we have a higher likelihood for stronger llvl moisture which; 1) leads to lower LCL’s 2) enhances llvl instability and 3) combine this with strong shear in the 0-3km layer and you have potential for weak tornadoes. Basically we’re relying more on what’s going on in the llvls than the mid/upper llvls...especially when we aren’t really looking for storm tops exceeding 20,000-25,000’. I also believe with warmer SST’s this reduces the effects of marine air, especially in situations where dews are exceptionally high. Also, steep mid-level lapse rates are typically more important when looking for significant severe widespread severe weather...this includes strong tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 I’d say congrats POU today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d say congrats POU today. SPC concurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 41 minutes ago, Hoth said: Realize you're probably quite busy, but why don't lapse rates matter as much for tornadoes later in the summer? If you want your classic supercell tornado like 1989 or 2011 you need the great lapse rates. This time of year we more often that not get tornadoes not from those epic setups but from setups like this. Deep moisture, anomalously strong mid level flow with a trough to the west, and a warm front coming through. 2013 Windsor, Revere, 2008 NH, etc are all examples of a super moist profile with enough shear to get the convective elements to spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d say congrats POU today. That’s one of your better calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 53 minutes ago, CT Rain said: If you want your classic supercell tornado like 1989 or 2011 you need the great lapse rates. This time of year we more often that not get tornadoes not from those epic setups but from setups like this. Deep moisture, anomalously strong mid level flow with a trough to the west, and a warm front coming through. 2013 Windsor, Revere, 2008 NH, etc are all examples of a super moist profile with enough shear to get the convective elements to spin. Thanks Ryan and Paul, that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 BOX seems to like Western MA/ CT for tor threats Where the front pushes to seems key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 SPC with a notable shift east with the SLIGHT. Hopefully Wiz is scoring summer league games today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 11z RAP for WTBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 sorry that came out weird and couldn't edit but that's the 11z RAP for Waterbury, CT for 2:00 PM today. Great combination of shear and CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 The past few...even several runs of the SPC SREF have continued to highlight western MA and western CT...even bumped up the probs. I still wish I understood what the values actually indicated...is it a percent or like an "on a scale type thing"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 I wonder if the “if you want NE severe then see what happened in Michigan the day before” axiom applies this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 49 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I wonder if the “if you want NE severe then see what happened in Michigan the day before” axiom applies this time? We had unexpected tornado warnings in and around Detroit around midnight last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Late last night at 2:00 am the HRRR and some other meso-models were clearly indicating isolated supercell activity along the CT coast and even Long Island around the 22z time frame... That's all gone now - no strong cells or helicity swaths of note in southern CT anymore, the show has moved northwest... Congrats POU indeed, although there's precious little even up there now. Anyway, don't feel so bad about having to sit this one out, it's looking like any spin-up will be transient, weak, and not very close to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: sorry that came out weird and couldn't edit but that's the 11z RAP for Waterbury, CT for 2:00 PM today. Great combination of shear and CAPE Great. So excited to bring more trees down on the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: sorry that came out weird and couldn't edit but that's the 11z RAP for Waterbury, CT for 2:00 PM today. Great combination of shear and CAPE SLGT risk downgraded to MRGL... sorry Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Severe *CANCEL* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 I wouldn't write it off completely - was always going to be a nowcast type deal IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 1215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Areas affected...Portions of northern NJ...southern NY including NYC...and CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011748Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving northward across a warm front may pose a brief/isolated tornado and strong wind risk through the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Lightning has recently developed with shallow convection across far northern NJ into southern NY. This activity is probably associated with a weak mid-level impulse and related low-level warm air advection. 17Z surface analysis shows a warm front draped west-to-east across this region. Although mid-level flow remains mostly unidirectional from the southwest, modest veering and strengthening of the low-level winds is present along the warm front per recent VWPs from KOKX, KENX, and KBOX. Related effective SRH values of 100-150 m2/s2 along and south of the warm front may be sufficient to support weakly rotating updrafts, with a brief/isolated tornado and strong wind gust possible. Lapse rates will remain poor across this region today, which coupled with widespread cloudiness will likely limit instability. Therefore, the overall severe threat is expected to remain quite marginal and isolated, with watch issuance not expected. ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/01/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.