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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz

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10 hours ago, tamarack said:

Had modest rain (0.24"), moderate winds, best lightning show of the year.  We've had our entry panel pop from close strikes before, but this time the transformer at our service line crackled, too.  No blinks, no issues - unlike Turner, about 2/3 of the way from here to Dryslot.  Reports that half the town was dark.

37037730_10105015877034015_4607242513982

Facebook compression aside, I got this on Long Pond 6/30. Granted it was also after 1 am.

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47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Next year may be my break to go out west. Unfortunately it may only be able to be for like 5 days but if my job becomes full time come December and I get one week vacation my first year then I’m golden!! But watch next year be worse than this out in the Plains 

Going to be really hard to do that.

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What's interesting is the country is about dead nuts average on wind reports for this point in the season, but well below in both hail and tornadoes. So that really means we have a distinct lack of supercellular type severe weather this season.

Seriously, 5/15 is one of the better outbreak days nationally this year. Not often New England gets in that conversation.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think we had 1 tornado back in the 90s , most warnings really could be for the far NE corner of Windham county.

Yeah this is just warning count/year, actual tornadoes would be even lower. 

I find it interesting how Cumberland County in Maine equals Grafton and Carroll in NH, but that's most likely because of the "fishtail" by Bridgton that is hard to chop out of a warning.

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1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

what is the geographical feature that spurns the nasty weather in the Strafford/Northwood/Deerfield area of NH? that place has been a magnet for weather events lately

Most of our severe weather are a result of terrain driven influences. It's not often we get the classic frontal/outflow boundaries delineating things. 

It's possible the relatively higher terrain west of the those towns helps channel flow in a more southerly vs. southwest direction. 

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NAM bufkit for BDL reamins quite unstable (actually increases instability) overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with some interesting shear. 

I think though the poor lapse rates and high PWAT air are really going to hurt things. As we saw last week, these setups can certainly produce something but it tends to be extremely localized and last week also had the extra help from triple point and mesolow. But with such poor lapse rates and the majority of the buoyancy within the low-levels we'll certainly get some activity going but it's going to struggle to develop into anything meaningful to utilize the shear. Also...with such warm mid-levels it will be tough to generate ice crystals for lightning. 

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