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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz

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34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

But the PoP was spot on!

It is only the probability of 0.01" in 12 hours after all (though that definition can be wildly different depending on how one builds their PoP grids).

Ha true enough.  Definitely forget that it's a hundredth in 12 hours.  

Speaking of grids, you know how you can toggle POP every hour... does that mean the same thing?  Despite the POPS changing every hour, it's still a 12 hour probability?  So like at 10am it's 80% but at 11am it's 100%... is that reading a 100% chance of measurable within 12 hours of 11am?  

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha true enough.  Definitely forget that it's a hundredth in 12 hours.  

Speaking of grids, you know how you can toggle POP every hour... does that mean the same thing?  Despite the POPS changing every hour, it's still a 12 hour probability?  So like at 10am it's 80% but at 11am it's 100%... is that reading a 100% chance of measurable within 12 hours of 11am?  

So we actually do hourly PoP through 60 hours, which is what you're seeing. That's what complicates the definition. So is it now an 80% chance this hour, or 80% chance cumulative in a moving window? I think we're trying to move more towards a PoP for the hour in question, but also have an eye on wording. Do we want that forecast to say scattered showers vs. widespread showers?

Either way, the point and click will combine that all into a 12 hour PoP that takes the highest hourly PoP at each grid point (so: "Today: Mostly cloudy, 80% chance of showers"). 

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I'm loving the measurements to the hundrethe there.  Cheap cylindrical garden store gauge says an inch fell today here slightly NW of ALB.  Judging from the size and color of the radar returns in comparison you guys to the east of us got smoked.

  

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It's been what seems like an eternity since I posted last.
Greetings, hoping all are in good spirit and health.
The last three months I've been in/out of the hospital. Third time is the charm. I'll tell ya nursing is one of the most  understated, unappreciated needed jobs in the world. I was there so long became friends with many on a first basis. Three surgeries a bypass and stent with my toes still in jeopardy of the knife, figure a new lease on life. Since moving here I've gone from 270 to my low of 150lbs. Pain is relative and only taking pain killers as needed. Opioids scare the ba-gee-bees out of me so I enrolled for cannabis (fingers crossed) no addiction and works better. 


From the news reports today I see many experienced some severe weather, clips of flooded streets and downed trees. I miss New England! The daily thunderstorms here compared to there frankly can't compare. I've had to reevaluate the meaning on severe. Torrential rain, visibilities to feet, down-bursts, outflow boundaries with (40-50mph) gusts just about everyday, 3-6pm like clockwork. It's the lightning that's truly unbelievable with earth-shaking window rattling booms, simultaneous flashes and crackling.
Don't know about anyone else but....
BRING ON WINTER!   

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8 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

It's been what seems like an eternity since I posted last.
Greetings, hoping all are in good spirit and health.
The last three months I've been in/out of the hospital. Third time is the charm. I'll tell ya nursing is one of the most  understated, unappreciated needed jobs in the world. I was there so long became friends with many on a first basis. Three surgeries a bypass and stent with my toes still in jeopardy of the knife, figure a new lease on life. Since moving here I've gone from 270 to my low of 150lbs. Pain is relative and only taking pain killers as needed. Opioids scare the ba-gee-bees out of me so I enrolled for cannabis (fingers crossed) no addiction and works better. 


From the news reports today I see many experienced some severe weather, clips of flooded streets and downed trees. I miss New England! The daily thunderstorms here compared to there frankly can't compare. I've had to reevaluate the meaning on severe. Torrential rain, visibilities to feet, down-bursts, outflow boundaries with (40-50mph) gusts just about everyday, 3-6pm like clockwork. It's the lightning that's truly unbelievable with earth-shaking window rattling booms, simultaneous flashes and crackling.
Don't know about anyone else but....
BRING ON WINTER!   

Best of luck with your recovery, Roosta! My great uncles both had bypasses done last year and said they feel ten years younger now. Hope it works out as well for you. And, as you say, bring on winter!

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