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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz

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It's marginally unstable around the region today...

The satellite imagery demos the thinness of this strata-type cloud ceiling. It's unzipping and sky-lights are taking over.  It won't take a lot of solar heating to get some bubblet turrets ...and shortly after that, some TCU crispies.  

The NAM (fwiw-) has some nine or so hours of persistent instability -related QPF pulsing about the region later in the afternoon and through the evening hours.  This type of convection is more conducive to gully rivers and one or two close CG bombs... with ongoing grumbling from three towns away type antics.  We need the rain ...I guess ... so this is beneficial.  Could be some cool looking CB scapes .. 

That's what today looks like to me...

I think Wednesday later afternoon and evening is interestingly similar to last week's set up... More of a "threat" (if we want to give it that) for PA/NY but... I could see some of that spilling through the area given to the speed of that open wave and typically, those move up in time as correction. 

After that... ? If things go according to plan... we suffer multiple days of 6,000 CAPE and nary a cumulus under very intense mid level warming in the troposphere..  Ha, the deviant in me has wondered (if not fantasized) in the past - can you imagine taking the atmosphere oh say...next Sunday, the bottom like mile and half of depth if by hundred miles or so .... Essentially, rectangular block of it, and releasing instantly at the bottom at the bottom of the atmosphere over the Antarctic ice cap?   that'd be awesome... Recently scientists published in Nature Geoscience, as theorized reason why Venus' rotation rate, albeit slow ...varies by 7 hours annually, as being caused by the vagaries of the meteorology/atmosphere on that planet.  I wonder if something similar would happen here -

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Man I've been crazy busy didn't get a chance to post but man was than an impressive storm/monsoon here in Enfield on Sunday.  Wife got caught in nasty flash flooding near the mall, water way up near the top of the tires.  She got home with blinking lights that shut off and than went back on by themselves due to water getting into the electrical which drained and killed the battery.  Drought busting rains around here for sure.  I'm sure the heat will do a number on the lawns again by this time next week.  

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Well modeling definitely coming into agreement on the release of an EML plume for the coming weekend, but unfortunately for severe weenies heights are also rising through the weekend. So Kevin gets his HHH. Maybe the best shot at storms comes as that air mass tries to move into the area.

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14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well modeling definitely coming into agreement on the release of an EML plume for the coming weekend, but unfortunately for severe weenies heights are also rising through the weekend. So Kevin gets his HHH. Maybe the best shot at storms comes as that air mass tries to move into the area.

I was checking to see if we would have a shot at some fun with the warm front but I wasn't overly impressed. Sometimes when we get those secondary warm fronts to push through (the ones that really bring in the HHH) they can be active but it's a bit rare. I remember one event in the late 90's or so where we had supercells in CT like early afternoon in association with the warm front. I wish I remembered the date but it was sometime in late June or July b/c I remember being out of school. I don't remember the day of the week either :/ 

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Sunrise Surprise setup Thursday morning - maybe lingering into midday? Strong veering in low levels with decent flow and some surface based CAPE. Seems like a conditional tornado/severe threat with low CAPE/high shear setup.

0-1km shear over 25 knots which is respectable... especially with low LCLs. 

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11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sunrise Surprise setup Thursday morning - maybe lingering into midday? Strong veering in low levels with decent flow and some surface based CAPE. Seems like a conditional tornado/severe threat with low CAPE/high shear setup.

0-1km shear over 25 knots which is respectable... especially with low LCLs. 

Long Island or SNE?

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16 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Both

I mean it's certainly a low probability event but that low level shear look with a warm front coming across is worth watching. 

I was thinking about the timing being off...  But I was also wondering if this may have a bit of an low LCL assist type set up... ?

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