Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Back to reality as far as severe weather is concerned (after a lull most of April due to the cold) as we turn the calendars to May. Although KS is the center of today's main event, the slight risk does include most of the rest of IA and part of SW WI: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html All of S IA and N MO in an Enhanced tomorrow (w/ MOD including NW MO), with the Slight extending all the way to Chicago: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Thursday's Slight includes nearly all of IL and MO, and S IA: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html And the SPC is hinting at some severe possibilities not out of the question for the OV on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 I'll take the under on these dews tomorrow. Lack of vegetation and dry ground make it even more unlikely. I'd say low to maybe mid 60s would be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Blue box now out for parts of IA/MN/WI. Covers areas just to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Just realized you made a thread for this, sorry. I should have been posting here. I might have to bite today. NAM3k trolling me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 I might have to bite tomorrow as both NAMs are trolling the triple point in S IA tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 The removal of the warm frontal zone from the ENH on the latest D2 doesn't make a lot of sense to me, early convection notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Yeah, that had me scratching my head. Tempers my anticipation just a tad, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them have to re-upgrade it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0314.html Mesoscale Discussion 0314 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018 Areas affected...parts of the eastern Iowa vicinity eastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021833Z - 022030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southeast Iowa area in the next 1-2 hours, and organize/spread eastward with time. Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed, as hail/wind risk increases. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface boundary lying across west-southwest to east-northeast across southern and eastern Iowa and stretching into southern Wisconsin. Ahead of the front, dewpoints are generally in the low 60s, with gradual heating ongoing through broken cloud cover. Isolated storms are expected to develop over the southeast Iowa vicinity by 20z, as mixed-layer CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg across the area. Gradual upscale development is expected, with a cluster or two of fast-moving storms -- aided by west-southwesterly mid-level flow in the 40 to 60 kt range. Along with risk for large hail, locally damaging wind potential -- modulated by degree of linear evolution -- will also be possible. ..Goss/Grams.. 05/02/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 First severe thunderstorm watch of the year could be on the way for some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Still sitting here at home. Thought I was gonna bite on this, but now considering staying put. SRH looks horrible and won't get much better over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Storms in northern/central IL should be outflow dominated for the most part as a svr watch is being considered by SPC. I'm focusing on action in sw OK for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 could be a long night for me...or close to me(north). looks like training cells now and will continue as a WAA wing develops off that complex in central KS hailers at first..then a Tornado threat this evening in WAA wing action of what will be a MCS ......then a big bow later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 67 mph gust at Midway Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Cell east of Joliet heading my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Had a nice little cell pop right up over us at work. Followed it on the way home. Had a tiny little base, with a little flank feeding into it. Was a cute attempt at being a notable supercell. It has since crapped the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Cell east of Joliet heading my way. Or skirt north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Real nice storm rolled through the Homer Glen IL area about an hour ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Or skirt north lolYou missed a good one. Strong gusts and hail. Had to pull over, had the pooch with me and he was freaking out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Just had nickel size hail fall for a few minutes a short bit ago. Sounded pretty dramatic on the new metal roof lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 50 minutes ago, King James said: You missed a good one. Strong gusts and hail. Had to pull over, had the pooch with me and he was freaking out . Sounds like the Midway storm did some damage with winds/wind blown hail. Also an area of more significant damage near Bourbonnais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Bout to possibly get slammed, multiple 70mph wind reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Nice storm down here south of Madison. Can’t see the rain guage very well yet but I’m going with .5 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Hell of a lightning show right now in the western/northwestern sky. Lots of anvil zits, and some distant CGs near horizon. Nice hailer north of DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Radar really lit up over the past hour or so. Looks like the area in between 80 and 20 are going to get trained for quite awhile. Tons of lightning with these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, Mogget said: Nice storm down here south of Madison. Can’t see the rain guage very well yet but I’m going with .5 inches so far. That line is about to move through here. I wasn't expecting anything potent, but these look like potential severe wind and hail producers (as evidenced by the golf ball size hail potential on the southern storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Experiencing a borderline severe storm here in Cedarburg, WI. Some small hail, lots of lightning. There’s been a constant roar/rumble for about 20 minutes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Getting trained here. Just had another bout of at least quarter size hail. Needs a warning. Over an inch of rain already and quickly climbing. EDIT: Warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 00z CAMs are quite aggressive in the warm frontal zone tomorrow, in particular the NSSL WRF, which has quite a substantial amount of supercells across N MO and the southern half of IA (perhaps into W IL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, andyhb said: 00z CAMs are quite aggressive in the warm frontal zone tomorrow, in particular the NSSL WRF, which has quite a substantial amount of supercells across N MO and the southern half of IA (perhaps into W IL). Will be interesting to see how much instability we can build tomorrow. Everything else looks in place for a pretty decent event over the areas you mentioned. Strong dynamics should help make up for any lack of CAPE, but if we can build a substantial amount of that on top of the synoptics this could get pretty interesting. Totally disagree with the midday day 2 in reducing the enhanced that was further north prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Looping the simulated satellite for tomorrow really illustrates how impressive this setup is. Just has the look of a very impressive setup based on pattern recognition alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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