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May 2018 General Discussion


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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Highly concerned that tomorrow will underperform what it could potentially be.

I want to go with 100, but short term guidance is now having big outflow push through during the morning, associated with a late night/morning WI MCS.


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Yep, not really on the RAP but certainly on the HRRR

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29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Highly concerned that tomorrow will underperform what it could potentially be.

I want to go with 100, but short term guidance is now having big outflow push through during the morning, associated with a late night/morning WI MCS.


.

That is my only concern with my 100 call. If that doesn't happen, ORD hits 100 tomorrow.

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I was out at the brewer game today in Milwaukee. Man that was hot! MKX got to 97 which sets the new monthly record for may according to the NWS. I was hoping for a lake breeze but it never got more inland than the Marquette Interchange. Towards the 8th and 9th innings though some of the anvils and outflows from some pulse storms to the north cooled it back down to the upper 80's. It probably did get 100+ in the park though as there was no wind and the sun just beat down on the field. Tomorrow is looking a bit cooler beacuse of some of that potential outflow form the mcs in the northern part of the state. I am honestly getting 2012 vibes from this heat wave.

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Highly concerned that tomorrow will underperform what it could potentially be.

I want to go with 100, but short term guidance is now having big outflow push through during the morning, associated with a late night/morning WI MCS.


.

Yeah, my gut is 100F won't happen, and if that outflow pushes through ORD, it may not even be close.

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1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

I was out at the brewer game today in Milwaukee. Man that was hot! MKX got to 97 which sets the new monthly record for may according to the NWS. I was hoping for a lake breeze but it never got more inland than the Marquette Interchange. Towards the 8th and 9th innings though some of the anvils and outflows from some pulse storms to the north cooled it back down to the upper 80's. It probably did get 100+ in the park though as there was no wind and the sun just beat down on the field. Tomorrow is looking a bit cooler beacuse of some of that potential outflow form the mcs in the northern part of the state. I am honestly getting 2012 vibes from this heat wave.

I am just a few miles NW of Miller Park and it cooled significantly from around 90F to 75F with those storms.  I felt sorry for the fans and players, probably did not expect it to be so sultry when they bought tickets.  Tomorrow's lake breeze looks like it will mean business after we make it into the 80s during the morning most likely.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Earlier I mentioned Rockford getting to 106 in May.  Here is the ridiculous May 31, 1934

 

Maple Plain, MN got up to 112F there. Insane for May. Not even June or August has gotten that hot in Minnesota.

 

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

How about 97 in Green Bay?  They had what, over 2 feet of snow about 6 weeks ago?  

 

In 2013 parts of southern Minnesota got 12'-18' of snow on May 3rd. Then 11 days later it was 100F so it can be more insane.

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Looks like the storms in WI did end up occurring, with outflow racing south this morning.

 

Hopefully we’ll recover into the low 90’s by afternoon, but around 100 and any records are out of the question now.

 

And further more, even if the OFB didn’t come through, there’s a ton of cirrus heading south from that activity, which would likely prevent maximum heating anyhow.

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Looks like the storms in WI did end up occurring, with outflow racing south this morning.
 
Hopefully we’ll recover into the low 90’s by afternoon, but around 100 and any records are out of the question now.
 
And further more, even if the OFB didn’t come through, there’s a ton of cirrus heading south from that activity, which would likely prevent maximum heating anyhow.

HRRR doesn’t even have the area recovering to hit 90 now.


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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like the storms in WI did end up occurring, with outflow racing south this morning.

 

Hopefully we’ll recover into the low 90’s by afternoon, but around 100 and any records are out of the question now.

 

And further more, even if the OFB didn’t come through, there’s a ton of cirrus heading south from that activity, which would likely prevent maximum heating anyhow.

Might be one of those days where the high occurs at like 5 pm.

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Torching out this way.  94 at MLI, 95 already at Iowa City.  Diurnal cu is already popping, which is ahead of yesterday.  That differential heating boundary reinforced from the lake is going to pop off some convection in the next hour or two.  

EDIT:  Actually a new storm has already popped near Kankakee.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The high likely already occurred before the OFB passed, maxed at 86 then.

 

ORD is down to 81 with a decent NE wind off the lake now.

 

 

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16z HRRR has it recovering into the 90s later, though it's currently running too warm. But it does have the idea of temps warming until about 5 pm even though the values are going to be wrong.

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