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May 2018 General Discussion


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34 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

May could end on a wet note. Looking like the remnants of Alberto will come up through the OV. 12z Euro/Ukie/GGEM all bring it north through the IN/OH border area. GFS turns it ENE after landfall and keeps it across the south.

Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical system (currently subtropical), this would have to be one of the earliest instances of remnants affecting part of the area.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical system (currently subtropical), this would have to be one of the earliest instances of remnants affecting part of the area.

About 10 days earlier than Arlene in 2005.

Sidenote, DTX calling for 92 on Monday 3 below the record of 95 dating back to the scorcher of 2012. Considering the magnitude of heat that could potentially build in the plains next week, the talk of a hot summer might be rising soon. I would definitely lean on the above average side of things going into summer.

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3 minutes ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said:

Why was the high at ORD today only reported as 89 when the temp was at 90 for twenty consecutive minutes between 4 PM and 4:20 PM?

Rounding issue on the 5 minute obs.  Midway did have a high of 90 though. 

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5 hours ago, Stebo said:

About 10 days earlier than Arlene in 2005.

Sidenote, DTX calling for 92 on Monday 3 below the record of 95 dating back to the scorcher of 2012. Considering the magnitude of heat that could potentially build in the plains next week, the talk of a hot summer might be rising soon. I would definitely lean on the above average side of things going into summer.

I scanned the tropical records and the only May system I can find that affected the region was Amanda in 1863 (this system was just discovered a few years ago).  All the other May systems were well out to sea or went up the east coast. So we could be looking at something pretty rare for the region if it does come up.

may28-1863-hurricane.png.4bc377ee14ef911b374ad038b173fed2.png.92dd4a2b50748e4ab72795310b1401ef.png

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I thought the storms were over once the evening line bypassed me, but I was awaken around 2am by a warning.  The potential wind and hail passed just s/sw of me, but I managed to get a solid 0.66" of rain.

I wish we could get another week of pleasant weather instead of the heat.  I have more stuff to do in the yard/garden.  

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8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Omaha officially hit 100 today.  Not bad for May 26th.  MLI tagged 93.  Hit 91 here.

Nice to see more convection blowing up in the skies today.  Time lapsed this storm that sat over Sheffield and dumped a few inches of rain on them.  Nearby areas got zip.  

 

 

That's awesome.

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Not even 10AM already 81/71/88 here. Summer definitely coming in with a bang early this year. We had a huge family cookout yesterday, backyard thermometer read 100 at one point, although it does sit in direct sunlight, with the heat index it was near 100.

 

UPDATE: 30 minutes later we are at 86/72/94. Under full sun. Gonna be a scorcher today. 

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LOT bullish and going with 96 at ORD.

Only 4 Mays have officially reached 95+ in Chicago -- 1934, 1942, 1977, 2012.  2012 is the only one to have 2 days AOA 95.

Not sure if the lake breeze will hold off all the way through peak heating or if it will come through early enough to take a couple degrees off the maximum potential... here and at ORD.  

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Got back yesterday after spending a week down in St. Pete Beach. Looks like I returned just in time for this short heatwave.

 

ORD hit 89 on Friday and 90 yesterday. Looks like about 95/96 today, and then upper 90’s for tomorrow.

 

Record highs are 97 for today and 95 for tomorrow, both from 2012.

 

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You guys have definitely been in a heck of a warm streak with Memorial Days lately.

Below were the observed highs at DTW. Mind you, the average high for Detroit is between 73*F and 75*F...

2010 - 86*F

2011 - 89*F

2012 - 95*F

2014 - 86*F

2015 - 84*F

2016 - 86*F

2017 - 81*F

(only 2013 was below normal, with a "freezing cold" high of 61*F)

So you would think the other shoe has to drop eventually.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

LOT bullish and going with 96 at ORD.

Only 4 Mays have officially reached 95+ in Chicago -- 1934, 1942, 1977, 2012.  2012 is the only one to have 2 days AOA 95.

Not sure if the lake breeze will hold off all the way through peak heating or if it will come through early enough to take a couple degrees off the maximum potential... here and at ORD.  

I will go with 97 for ORD.

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On 5/24/2018 at 12:17 AM, cyclone77 said:

GFS likely overdoing temps where it's showing 95+ but expect temps near 90 for much of this area starting Friday. Other than the warmth and elevated humidity, zzzzz.

Looks like the GFS was right all along.  Impressive early season heat.  HRRR showing pockets of upper 90s later today.  Looks like some 100+ heat out parts of Iowa.  

MLI was 85 at 9am, which is 7 degrees ahead of yesterday at that time, and they made it to 93.

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Looks like the GFS was right all along.  Impressive early season heat.  HRRR showing pockets of upper 90s later today.  Looks like some 100+ heat out parts of Iowa.  
MLI was 85 at 9am, which is 7 degrees ahead of yesterday at that time, and they made it to 93.

The GFS has been on a role lately...

Especially nailing the topical system potential 384hrs out.


.
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Wow... 99 would set the all-time May record.

Yea, I’m bullish.

 

Warmer UA temps then today, continued good mixing, and maybe a bit of feedback from the slowly approaching Alberto.

 

Only negative could be an easterly wind, with a weak and unorganized surface environment.

 

The long range HRRRx has pockets of 100’s across N. IL for tomorrow.

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Barring some underachieving temps with Alberto’s remnants, May 2018 will be CMH’s first month in recorded history with above average temps for every day of the month. Our “coolest” day was 5/5 with 69/51 for +1 on the average. We’re at +8.6F for the month and will probably top +9 by the 31st.

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