Stebo Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: RAP all-in with highs approaching 90 in parts of IL Will have to see how much clearing occurs Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Under HRRR not far behind. Those models did better than others on some of the warm days so far, but we do have the added complication of how much cloud debris there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: HRRR not far behind. Those models did better than others on some of the warm days so far, but we do have the added complication of how much cloud debris there will be. I think HRRR is overmixing things a bit. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 uh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said: uh... Not a chance in hell of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Not a chance in hell of verifying. yeah but still funny to see that pop up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Impressive mid-level swirl with the complex over SE IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring 2018 Is The Worst Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Why is the warm front progged to stall so far south this weekend? Seems kind of strange for that to be happening in Mid May. I don't understand why it can't lift farther north. garbage spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring 2018 Is The Worst Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 On 5/7/2018 at 12:24 PM, Harry Perry said: Nearing full-leafout in several spots in my area. I’d be willing to bet we’re at full bloom by the end of the week here. Forecast models have been playing catch-up in the last week. GFS, NAM, Euro and CFS all have tried holding the cold air over the Great Lakes through the long range, but every day is suppressing it further N/NE and as expected, latest runs keep increasing H8 and surface temps by a few degrees daily. Now, the cold air that was once progged to be over the Great Lake/NE is well into Canada and a much more late spring-early summer like pattern has filled its place. I’d expect our highs to be a little warmer than forecast each day (seems to be the case as of the late) - other than Thursday and Friday with the system/quasi stationary system moving in/taking shape. Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days for later this week into the weekend with the southern stream inching northward. That’s a lot of heat and moisture inching into cooler and drier air. Now the models are showing miserable cold this weekend for the Great Lakes, while just barely south temps will be into the 90s. WTF is going on with this ****ed up pattern? It seems absolutely bizarre for there to be that much cold air still present this late in the season, and it also doesn't make sense that the cold pushes so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Nada for rain around here overnight/this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 9 hours ago, Stebo said: Not a chance in hell of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 7 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said: Now the models are showing miserable cold this weekend for the Great Lakes, while just barely south temps will be into the 90s. WTF is going on with this ****ed up pattern? It seems absolutely bizarre for there to be that much cold air still present this late in the season, and it also doesn't make sense that the cold pushes so far south. Where do you live? At ORD, the normal high is still only around 68...so each day with a high temp near 80 (which we’ve seen a few of recently) is balanced out with a day that has a high temp in the mid 50s. If you’re near Lake Michigan, the normal highs are even lower. In the Upper Midwest, normal lows are still in the 30s. It isn’t summer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring 2018 Is The Worst Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 5 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Where do you live? At ORD, the normal high is still only around 68...so each day with a high temp near 80 (which we’ve seen a few of recently) is balanced out with a day that has a high temp in the mid 50s. If you’re near Lake Michigan, the normal highs are even lower. In the Upper Midwest, normal lows are still in the 30s. It isn’t summer yet. We had February weather in April. I think we all deserve a long period of summer warmth from May till October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 17 hours ago, tmagan said: Impressive mid-level swirl with the complex over SE IA. That was a nice MCV for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said: We had February weather in April. I think we all deserve a long period of summer warmth from May till October. What you want compared to what is expected are two totally different things, and obviously unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 15 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said: Why is the warm front progged to stall so far south this weekend? Seems kind of strange for that to be happening in Mid May. I don't understand why it can't lift farther north. garbage spring. I think you fail to realize May always features at least several "cold" days around here. May days with high temps <60F at ORD the past several years... 2018: 0 Days 2017: 8 Days 2016: 7 Days 2015: 7 Days 2014: 7 Days So we're due... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 21 hours ago, Hoosier said: HRRR not far behind. Those models did better than others on some of the warm days so far, but we do have the added complication of how much cloud debris there will be. The HRRR/RAP have been pretty much aces on limited cloud cover/non-precip days, far outperforming other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 21z RAP is quite a bit further north with the boundry through 18z tomorrow compared to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Wow this place is dead. Finally had a little bit of rain this week with just over a half inch. Hopefully it will spur then green up! Very chilly tonight... have the wood stove going and the pellet stove down in the breezeway too. Temp is already down to 32... still rogue patches of snow here and there. I even made a snowball yesterday, but a far different story 28 years ago. I'd be down. MQT: On this day in weather history, a major late season snowstorm ends, leaving behind nearly 2 feet of snow in the high terrain of north central Upper Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Yeah it is dead around here, no excitable weather coming around. No major severe outbreaks or flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 11 hours ago, Stebo said: Yeah it is dead around here, no excitable weather coming around. No major severe outbreaks or flooding. Aren't you excited to be in the 40s on a mid May afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Aren't you excited to be in the 40s on a mid May afternoon? About as excited as I will be tomorrow at the Tigers game freezing to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Sleet mixing in right now on northern edge of this precip It's been a while since this late of a may mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 About as excited as I will be tomorrow at the Tigers game freezing to death.Don’t do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 My friend in Grand Rapids have sleet with rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 There's almost a 45 degree spread between Peoria and Waukegan. I haven't checked but I would imagine that some of these temps deeper into the cold air are running near record low max values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 4 hours ago, King James said: Don’t do it . Tickets bought already, Mother's day gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Weather next week looks nice with upper 70s/low 80s every day. Severe wx pattern thru early June leaves me slightly optimistic. Looks like we should have several waves move into the west at the least. Pattern early on could be hindered by ULL pestering over the gulf, but good luck getting any decent predictability on that feature this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 It's been in the low to mid 40s for 36 hours and counting now. Furnace is back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Had some of the loudest thunderstorms I can ever remember this morning, woke me up from a dead sleep at 630. Radar estimates over 2-3" since midnight and I completely believe that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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