EB89 Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 I am in Frederick. The rain totals are crazy. Ground is saturated. Saw that the City is requesting residents refrain from non essential water use as the treatment plant is inundated which is causing overflows and backups into homes. We have two more days of this. The radar returns are not moving either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Frederick County is making a good case for a federal disaster declaration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 4 hours ago, Solo2 said: You realize if the HRRR came true...that would be a foot of rain in ~24hrs. You don't want that regardless of how much you love extreme weather and how Jebman you are. It has lost its fun out this way at this point.... I hope you guys dont get too much more rain. I feel badly for that region getting too much rain. But i would gladly take all of it if I could. Man it would be FUN to see Hoadly Run overtop Minnieville Rd behind Giants! I'd be there all day long, getting water level readings and blasting 1970s songs on my headphones the entire time. You really should move here to Dale City. This is one of the safest places to live in the Mid Atlantic. Everyone is moving here, we are getting overrun lmao. We never get floods and we get the low end amounts in any storm 90 percent of the time. We will probably get a flood someday, likely well after I have bought the farm LOL. We happen to be in the low end in this week's weather system, models are adamant about me barely getting 1 inch by next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Frederick County is making a good case for a federal disaster declaration. President Trump needs to declare Frederick County a Federal Disaster area pronto. I am starting to feel badly for you all up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 1 hour ago, EB89 said: I am in Frederick. The rain totals are crazy. Ground is saturated. Saw that the City is requesting residents refrain from non essential water use as the treatment plant is inundated which is causing overflows and backups into homes. We have two more days of this. The radar returns are not moving either. How much rain have you already received? Hopefully we can get those radar returns over you to move well east. Has anyone heard from Wxtrix? She lives in or near CharlesTown West Virginia which has been stuck under the same training rain returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: How much rain have you already received? Hopefully we can get those radar returns over you to move well east. 9.2 and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Just now, EB89 said: 9.2 and counting. Just beyond belief. I really really hope that rain moves somewhere else soon, like far northeast, to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 This is after a little over 6" yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 3 hours ago, poolz1 said: Pic from our friends basement. In 17 years they haven’t had more than a few inches in the basement. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Sorry about the water damage. Just wanted to point out --- THAT, laying on the ground, is a Jebman Shovel lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 I just thought of something. All that water falling in Frederick MD - Is that region part of the Potomac River Watershed? Hopefully not. but if it is, Alexandria could be in trouble down the road when the water gets downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 G-d help us ALL. I looked it up. Not only is Frederick within the Potomac River Watershed, but so is Jefferson County in West Virginia. Poor Alexandria, that is one of my favorite places, I wish I had never prayed so damn hard for rain. Damn. All of that unwanted water is going to hit the Potomac. We need that frontal boundary to wash out NOW! We need just cloudy skies the next 4 days. Oh G-d I just realized that if the Potomac has a severe flood stage, it will also affect Veterans Park In Woodbridge! That park is only a few feet above mean high tide! And I thought I was safe! The road that you travel to get to Veterans Park, Bay Street I think it is, WILL BE UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF WATER, especially at times of high tide, and the tides may just pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 These showers are brief but loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Unfortunately, as of 115am, the Frederick vicinity continues under considerable rainfall. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes They appear to be getting trained by 40 to 45 dbZ radar elements, and this activity has been remarkably consistent for at least the past 1 to 2 hours. In the past 15 minutes the training elements over Frederick are expanding in areal coverage while developing to the SSW and continuing to train over the same areas, yellows to more orange shadings indicating considerable rain rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Jebman said: G-d help us ALL. I looked it up. Not only is Frederick within the Potomac River Watershed, but so is Jefferson County in West Virginia. Poor Alexandria, that is one of my favorite places, I wish I had never prayed so damn hard for rain. Damn. All of that unwanted water is going to hit the Potomac. We need that frontal boundary to wash out NOW! We need just cloudy skies the next 4 days. Oh G-d I just realized that if the Potomac has a severe flood stage, it will also affect Veterans Park In Woodbridge! That park is only a few feet above mean high tide! And I thought I was safe! The road that you travel to get to Veterans Park, Bay Street I think it is, WILL BE UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF WATER, especially at times of high tide, and the tides may just pile up. Potomac forecast calls for a crest only in the minor to moderate range. Gotta watch out for for whatever falls Friday though. That could change the forecast. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=brkm2 https://www.weather.gov/marfc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Western Baltimore is getting shredded by heavy rain too. That band and the Wxtrix to Frederick deathband are piling immense amounts of rain on top of utterly saturated ground. EB 89 stated he had 9.2 inches at midnight. Its still coming down up there. Who knows how much they will have by daybreak, to say nothing of noon today. Areas of 45 dBz are showing up in the Frederick rain deathband as of 203am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 As of 335am, Frederick is getting a breather, but more is on the way unfortunately. EB89 must have nearly a foot of rain by now lol Its pretty obvious where the main axis of torrential rain is setting up: Winchester to Jefferson County (Wxtrix) to Frederick. This is probably going to persist over time. It's bad enough for ppl in Frederick and in CharlesTown, but there will also be hell to pay once all that water moves downstream. The Shenandoah River at CharlesTown is going to be crazy high. This is NO time to have a home near the river. There will probably be a secondary axis over or just west of Baltimore. It was in place earlier tonight, and it was also model indicated. Woodbridge is well out of the woods, we'll probably get away with an inch total, BUT we gotta keep an eye on that Potomac, it can cause havoc in certain places like Alexandria and in low lying parks like Veterans Park. That place is only feet above high water. We get a big rise on the Potomac, that entire region is FLAT and it will all be underwater, just in time for the upcoming Memorial Day Holiday. It would probably submerge the Veterans Park Pool lmao. It really would not take much of a rise. Upstream with all the rivers that feed into the Potomac, there is a world of severe hurt coming down in Frederick with ridiculous amounts of rain and really nothing to stop it from setting 5000 year records there by late Saturday night. And all that water is gonna smash right into US. Just because we've lucked into light rain and drizzle all week, doesnt mean we get off scot free. We only had to put up with a tenth of an inch in occasional drizzle on Wednesday. Today will probably be similar. It might even become partly sunny at times today in Dale City. We dont flood here; this is one of the finest places to live in the entire United States. But those MOUNTAINS DO FLOOD, and they can flood catastrophically, and all that water must go somewhere. Where it will end up, is right into the Potomac River, which flows right to us. I'll have only drizzle, but this is far from over. We'll know by late next week. 407am: More heavy rain smacking down on Jefferson County in West Virginia, and heading straight into Frederick. A lot of the rain thats been annihilating Frederick, has also been waterboarding Westminster all night as well. Westminster is probably carrying impressive rain tallies just from this overnight, to say nothing of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Rain continues light. Radar returns to the south are fading lol. I am pretty excited because I picked up one sixty fourth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Floodmageddon has, predictably, turned into Dudmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 43 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Floodmageddon has, predictably, turned into Dudmageddon. Stephen City floodmaggedon is 3hrs of drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 NAM cut back again on precip. Can't figure out what is causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 We've had some light rain, really a kind of glorified drizzle. I'm pretty much resigned to my light rain by now. I'll get an inch total and I'll run with it. There's a little forcing here, but much much more northwest of here, lol. Models were right on the nose with this one. From now on, my bar is a wet car top and a wet street, but not wet under trees. Its obvious by now where the heavier rain axis is, we all know where it is, I am sick to death of seeing ppl cry about it on Twitter. We got nothing but a bunch of spoiled people in this country. I am not one of them. If I got 20 inches of rain tomorrow I'd get outside in it, help people clean up and shovel mud til my arms fall off. I'd never complain about having to cope with a flood. But these ppl online, geeze. they need to get off the puter, start cleaning up outside, quit bitchin'. Welcome to climate change. It is not going to stop. It will get far worse. Dont make me have to go to waterfront Alexandria and show ppl how to shovel mud. This debacle is all over the interwebs by now. I can't do anything on content marketing without being blasted in the face about whats happening farther north, lol. People are crying more about rain, than about the Kilauea eruption in Hawaii. The Kilauea eruption I can understand. Thats ash, pumice, big rocks falling, sulfur dioxide which is deadly stuff to breathe in, and lava, magma. Now THATS something to cry about, THATS SERIOUS. Floods subside, people clean up, life goes on, it is really no big deal at all. I know, couple of my relatives in south Texas in 2015 went thru it in Wimberley 22 inches in 6 hours, Sure it was distressing, but they cleaned up, went on with their lives. It is only a few inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 I have just noticed something. The radar elements are fragmentary over my backyard, so I get light rain. But the elements consolidate by the time they reach Washington DC, so DC gets to enjoy steady, occasionally moderate rain. There's much much more forcing north of me, and very little at my latitude lol. Yep, I am definitely only gonna get one inch. Enjoy your 3 to 6 inches of rain DC! I'm cheering you on! It looks like there is a deathband forming over Rockville LOL! I see very heavy stuff to the south but I am not getting my hopes up. Dale City will not get heavy rain from this system. It usually fades out as it gets to MBY lol. I'd say I probably have a 20 percent chance of some BRIEF mod rain in another hour. Naaaaah, 10 percent chance. I dont even know why I care - there's very little forcing here, its all up north and especially, NORTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Heavy rain band - yellow elements, moving thru Jefferson County in eastern West Virginia, and also moving into the Frederick region as of 255am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 That promising yellow band to our south - it is moving northeast, not so much north, lol. Oh well I have a third of an inch. Could be worse, I could have zero. Beggars cant be choosers. Southern Maryland and Delaware should get beneficial rains throughout today. Its all sliding northeast, just to my south LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 9 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Floodmageddon has, predictably, turned into Dudmageddon. For me, yes this storm is a fizzle. I was correct all along, I will get an inch. Now all the rain is moving northeast away from MBY. I should see drizzle thru Saturday afternoon. The NWS is scrambling to catch up! 1 to 3 more inches? What are they smoking? Damn I am good, I should be a meteorologist, hell I am smarter than the entire NWS! They will be playing catch up all thru the weekend lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Look at all of the heavy rain that is hammering east of the Potomac. I never got to enjoy even 5 minutes of the yellow. East of the Potomac will get to savor yellow blobs of rain for hours, and I will get NONE of it. I would have happily sold my soul to hell and given up everything I owned, for a precious single HOUR of yellow radar return rain. But I was destined to miss ALL. All of the heavy rain has missed me. All I get is drizzle. I hate where I live. I always miss out on heavy rain. And, I REFUSE to feel sorry for those who got a lot. Put on your big boy pants and get your sorry ass off of that soaked couch and join the cleanup. Some of us did not get shyte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 The line of rain is moving well east of me. I forecast that much of this afternoon, I will see no rain at all. Flood watch will be lifted. This storm will be over by 10pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Yep this storm is a dud. The blob now to our south will slide NE and hit Delaware. Or, it will almost reach us, fade out then redevelop over Frederick. Some places have had excessive rain with this storm, while for our region, this has been nothing more than a normal mid latitude storm that brought occasional light rain that slowly added up to about an inch. I have completely given up on seeing heavy rain with this. The model that showed all the monster totals over the mountains is now THE KING. That model gave us 1 inch, right on the money. Of course, I would have sold America to the Chinese for 20 inches in Dale City and water over Minnieville Rd at Hoadly Run. But alas it was not to be. Dale City never floods, never has, never will. Hope everyone is okay up in Frederick. Water there should receding. We should dry out after noon tomorrow. This thing is nearly out of energy. Soon we will be sunny, hot and humid, 94 degrees and 72 dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Can’t believe it’s actually sunny in Deep Creek right now. Nice surprise. ☀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Man I would kill for a few hours of full sun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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