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May Discobs Thread


George BM

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5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

One heck of a lightning storm going on just to my south. Weird seeing so much lightning and having such a stable feeling environment. 

Good amount of elevated instability... MUCAPE approaching 1000 to 1500 J/KG per LWX evening AFD update

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I was very skeptical of the NWS' rain forecast today/tonight. I went out on another epic jebwalk after the cold front passed thru this afternoon, and I got caught out. In a soaker. Soaked to the bone. My neighbors kidded me so hard. A couple asked me how's that drought going, lol.

I didn't think it was very funny.

But yeah, we got some rain.

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i think there is junk clogging my VP2.  Poured last night around 10 and had pea sized hail.  Rain gauge didn't budge.  Gutters need cleaning too.

Shiit was loud.  Good storm given the cool temps with the front just to my south.

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45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Northern zones are in the slight for excessive rain risk for Tues/Wed.
58319b645dd9d450296f67c68111b2f6.jpg

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just mentioned it in the severe thread. NAM advertising a nice line dropping out of PA after 21z tomorrow. Looks decent. Maybe I will get that shelf pic I have been longing for this spring. 

24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

0.44” overnight, 1.07” on May so far.

1.37 since Saturday for me. 

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Northern zones are in the slight for excessive rain risk for Tues/Wed.
58319b645dd9d450296f67c68111b2f6.jpg

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The GFS shows the entire Baltimore area getting crushed tomorrow evening/night. 3"+ and then more to come after Wednesday.

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Here we go again...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/

DC
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-
150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             ANNE ARUNDEL        BALTIMORE
CALVERT              CARROLL             CHARLES
FREDERICK            GARRETT             HARFORD
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS            WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-041-051-055-057-059-061-063-
067-087-099-111-125-129-133-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ALLEGHENY           ARMSTRONG
BEAVER               BEDFORD             BLAIR
BUTLER               CAMBRIA             CUMBERLAND
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            FULTON
GREENE               HUNTINGDON          INDIANA
JUNIATA              MIFFLIN             PERRY
SOMERSET             WASHINGTON          WESTMORELAND
YORK
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC003-013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-099-107-113-125-137-
139-153-157-165-171-177-179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-
790-820-840-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE            ARLINGTON           AUGUSTA
CLARKE               CULPEPER            FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER             FREDERICK           GREENE
HIGHLAND             KING GEORGE         LOUDOUN
MADISON              NELSON              ORANGE
PAGE                 PRINCE WILLIAM      RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM           SHENANDOAH          SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD             WARREN


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH         FREDERICKSBURG      HARRISONBURG
MANASSAS             MANASSAS PARK       STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO           WINCHESTER
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

WVC001-003-007-009-013-017-021-023-027-031-033-037-041-049-051-
057-061-065-069-071-073-075-077-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-
105-107-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/

WV
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBOUR              BERKELEY            BRAXTON
BROOKE               CALHOUN             DODDRIDGE
GILMER               GRANT               HAMPSHIRE
HARDY                HARRISON            JEFFERSON
LEWIS                MARION              MARSHALL
MINERAL              MONONGALIA          MORGAN
OHIO                 PENDLETON           PLEASANTS
POCAHONTAS           PRESTON             RANDOLPH
RITCHIE              TAYLOR              TUCKER
TYLER                UPSHUR              WEBSTER
WETZEL               WIRT                WOOD
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD

EASTERN BAY

CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD

TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND

$$
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ...CTP...
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LWX going gung ho on the heavy rain threat/flooding threat on afternoon AFD:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A several day period marked with high moisture will move into
the mid-Atlantic region by the non-tropical low pressure system
in the northeast Gulf of Mexico coupled with the Bermuda high
off the southeast U.S. Coast. This will bring an anomolous
amount of moisture into the region, with precipitable waters
approaching 2 inches. Model ensembles bring on the average 2-4
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 6 inches through
Friday.

While it is difficult to pinpoint at this time when the
heaviest rainfall will occur, certainly the 12Z GEFS indicates
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday late afternoon/evening with
the heaviest rainfall potential, with up to 3/4 inch rainfall
forecast in six-hours. This will likely lead to the region
having an extended and increasing flood threat through Saturday,
which is highlighted in detail in the flood section of this
discussion.

.HYDROLOGY...
After seeing marginal to low-end minor flooding with the
precipitation yesterday, and overall a swath of two to four inches
of rain from near Cumberland to DC to Prince Frederick recently,
more rain is on the way.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect roughly along and north of the
US 48 / I-66 / US 50 corridor from 3 PM to 1 AM. More convective
development late this afternoon and evening will lead to flood
potential, especially given that many areas in the Cumberland-
Winchester-Dulles corridor are showing near-saturated soil from the
prior rain, and precipitable water remains 1.5 inch or greater along
with a deepening warm cloud layer.

The surface front moves back into the area tonight and then stalls
somewhere in the neighborhood for almost as far as we can feasibly
forecast. With a deep and near-persistent moisture feed from the
Gulf and Atlantic pumping moisture in through at least Saturday, and
that boundary remaining somewhere nearby, this acts as a recipe for
heavy rain potential...which is starting to look like more a matter
of when and how much, rather than if.

At this time, widespread rains of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts, are expected through Friday, and although things get less
certain later on in the forecast period, there`s potential for even
more rain after Friday. These amounts of rain would definitely be
sufficient (given already saturated soil and elevated streams) to
cause flooding/flash flooding almost any day through the forecast
period, with some potential for significant river flooding late in
the week through the weekend.

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