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May Discobs Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

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Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Forgot to check vp2 for temp but when I left for OC this morning at 530 ...it was real cool out. Weather looks decent here for the first half of the   weekend..70s and sunny today and tomorrow . 

Yesterday was pretty nice, but more like downright tropical with temps in the upper 80s and high dews today. By this afternoon its going to be pretty miserable feeling outside.

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CAPE

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Posted
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Heavy rain threat again late today through tomorrow. Looks to be focused on the cities and east.

From Mount Holly AFD this morning-

Of concern is the anomalously high PWATs progged to rise over 2 inches. Also, forecast profiles indicate a modest LLJ with slight veering in the profile and light winds aloft...suggesting slow moving and/or backbuilding and training of cells. Thus, though severe threat should diminish through the evening very heavy rainfall with the threat of urban, small stream and even flash flooding will continue with these storms into the overnight. In fact pattern even looks to resemble Maddox Frontal Pattern identified in some flash flood cases. Highest threat area for heavy rainfall and associated hydro issues looks to be Philly to Trenton and points south.

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Posted
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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea....I was referring to Ocean city actually. I left yesterday morning to come down here.  It hit around 76 here..a real nice breeze  with low humidity..felt nice. Ocean temp is pretty cold but it didn't stop me from getting in. I was one of only a handful though that did lol. I bet it's soupy for the rest of you guys no doubt .

Yeah thats one good thing about being down there in late May- tends to be cooler especially right on the beach. The traffic on the other hand..

I was outside by 6:30 mowing and planted a few shrubs, got up on the roof and blew off the tree debris and pollen. Just got back inside, and immediately showered. Its pretty humid out there and if you are doing some work it wont take long before you are soaked.

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BlizzardNole

BlizzardNole

Posted
Posted

Man you can really feel the humidity today!  I am really hoping for a big lightning show later -- from LWX's disco: 

Frequent lightning may be a hazard given large areas
of updrafts in the 0 to -15 C region, suggesting lots of
suspended small ice particles (graupel) which would be favorable
for excess charge separation.
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Posted
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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

LWX talking about slow moving storms this evening... SWVA radar shows a good example of this right now.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I posted part of the AFD from Mount Holly earlier- they mentioned back-building/training cells and are concerned about localized flooding tonight.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted

Well, look at that, a storm blowing to my north and just sitting there while I bake in full sun and nearly 90f temp.  Shocker.

.... and now to my south also for good measure. 

 

All that's missing is a line filling in to my east extending from NYC to RIC and this day will be complete. 

Maybe FDK can extend its 15" lead on me for the month.

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Nice write up on the heavy rain potential from Mt Holly in their afternoon AFD- 

Several short wave perturbations in the mid-level flow and a
surface trough situated across the I-95 corridor will lead to a
continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through the
overnight hours. An increasingly deep plume of tropical moisture
will advect northward, with Precipitable Water values around
2.0 inches south of the I-78 corridor, some 2-3 Standard
Deviations above normal. The low-level theta-e axis will be
situated just east of the I-95 corridor, where instability will
be greatest through the overnight hours, with long narrow CAPE
noted on model soundings. In addition, the greatest 850- 925 hPa
moisture flux is expected across southern NJ and Delmarva, with
storm motions around 20 kts. This slow storm motion, especially
if training develops, may lead to urban and poor drainage
flooding as well as localized flash flooding, especially across
Delmarva where hourly flash flood guidance is lowest due to
recent rainfall.
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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Alright NPZ, no way you get missed by this one....right?  That would be one heck of a Houdini act.

 

It's been pounding thunder just to my west for the last 1/2 hour.  So far, I've gotten a sprinkle.  Radar showing it sliding just to NW, with a thin appendage that might get me a shower, but not holding out any hope.  This is just incredible.

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's been pounding thunder just to my west for the last 1/2 hour.  So far, I've gotten a sprinkle.  Radar showing it sliding just to NW, with a thin appendage that might get me a shower, but not holding out any hope.  This is just incredible.

I wish I could send you all of the potential rain forecast for here. Mosquitoes are becoming more than a nuisance now.

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Posted
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14 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Thick as pea soup out. My daughter rode this morning for all about 10 min. Have a thick cloud deck up here now making it bearable to sit out on the deck with a drink. 

I have been outside doing projects and yard work since just after 6am. Just took my third and final shower for the day. I am now enjoying a few drinks inside, in the comfy, cold AC space of my house.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
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44 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's been pounding thunder just to my west for the last 1/2 hour.  So far, I've gotten a sprinkle.  Radar showing it sliding just to NW, with a thin appendage that might get me a shower, but not holding out any hope.  This is just incredible.

Just as predicted.  Stayed just to my west.  I did get clipped with some moderate showers, and I mean just barely - the sun was out to my SW as it rained overhead.  The storm has sat just west of me; they must be getting water-boarded.  Looks like I picked up just over .25" over the 30 minutes or so.  Just enough to **** up our neighborhood bbq event this afternoon and tonight's fireworks in Stephens City.  

 

ETA......Found a PWS 3 miles to my west on Wxundergourd, 3.25" so far and still in the orange.  Unreal.

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BlizzardNole

BlizzardNole

Posted
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Bullseye!  Nice, heavy storm that dropped about 0.75 in 20 minutes, plus a few bolts.  The best part is the temp went from 90 with lots of pollen to 71 and clean, fresh air.

Damn NPZ, that is one heck of a rain shadow you have there.  This shows how you only average 30-something inches a year while high spots to your west get near 60.

 

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have been outside doing projects and yard work since just after 6am. Just took my third and final shower for the day. I am now enjoying a few drinks inside, in the comfy, cold AC space of my house.

I mowed and such earlier; it was an absolute sauna.  My yard gets more hydration from my dripping sweat than it does from any rain. 

On pace to be a miserable summer.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Storm was a deluge in Columbia. Stopped for now but looks like more to come. Rained out the afternoon baseball games in my sons tournament.

Looks like an area of convergence along I-70 per the SPC meso update. Tons of CG going up around me in Baltimore County.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Bullseye!  Nice, heavy storm that dropped about 0.75 in 20 minutes, plus a few bolts.  The best part is the temp went from 90 with lots of pollen to 71 and clean, fresh air.

Damn NPZ, that is one heck of a rain shadow you have there.  This shows how you only average 30-something inches a year while high spots to your west get near 60.

 

We have a rain gauge at one of our dams off Wisteria Dr...recorded 0.68" in 24 min from that storm.

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