Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2018 Author Share Posted May 1, 2018 I think he yanked ur chain to the whole world on that one - ahaha 18z NAM FRH grid technique flags 89 at Logan tomorrow. Has 850 mb within a tick plus or minus of +15 C (benchmark) ...and the T1 temp of +26 C - given the index finger rule of adding 4 to 5 to get the 2-meter in well mixed diurnal heating scenarios brings 30 to 31 C ... Given to the still low DP and the virtual unabated sun during May I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt on the top end (if the NAM were any good of a model... but the synoptics support the top end in this case so it gets a nod). inching closer to record territory... These early dry bone heat pump patterns tend to over produce on machine guidance btw so MOS may be default 1 to 3 F shy of actual - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2018 Author Share Posted May 1, 2018 By the way ... seeing as the belated green-up has gotten some local press here... Along my trek home from the office there were numerous sugar maples burst into flower. Thing is... I checked along the way this morning on the way in and there was nadda. I have never seen that before...straight from twig to flower with no apparent swollen bud phase in between? Red maples going crazy too after only being somewhat more noticeable yesterday - This green up may set a record for rapidity if there were ever such a statistic - it's almost like the winter squeezed every last penny it could out of the schedule...like to the minute, and then pulled out in tandem with spring/summer arrival - and it will show tomorrow when you leave your cushy a.c.ed office and walk out into the ass end of a dump truck. If it get 88 to 92 F even in dry heat that's going to be bone shock for a civility that's accustomed more to sleet than anything else. huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Only the azaleas and Forsythia are flowering here at 1k. The red maples have real small red flowers/ buds . If I look really close at the Oaks you can just today see what seems like a real tiny beginning of a white bud. The pricker bushes back in the woods have a bit of green coming out on them. Lawns are green , but still a lot of brown on north facing areas and nowhere close to needing a mow .All in all it’s 3+ behind. The CT valley is 10-14 days ahead of me with most trees leafing and many mowings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 how do you figure 10 to 14 days? And at least around my neighborhood.. most trees are not leafing out.. buds are definitely showing though.. just spent 8 days in Florida thought for sure it would be popping more by now!! 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only the azaleas and Forsythia are flowering here at 1k. The red maples have real small red flowers/ buds . If I look really close at the Oaks you can just today see what seems like a real tiny beginning of a white bud. The pricker bushes back in the woods have a bit of green coming out on them. Lawns are green , but still a lot of brown on north facing areas and nowhere close to needing a mow .All in all it’s 3+ behind. The CT valley is 10-14 days ahead of me with most trees leafing and many mowings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: how do you figure 10 to 14 days? And at least around my neighborhood.. most trees are not leafing out.. buds are definitely showing though.. just spent 8 days in Florida thought for sure it would be popping more by now!! Head down to HFD and south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 MAV is a scorchah tomorrow. Mostly 88s and 89s, but I did find a 90 at BAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Head down to HFD and south . Definitely noticed a difference as well. You're probably about a solid week behind Enfield but things are popped even more right near HFD down through Wethersfield/Rocky HIll. Took 84 east up to route 32 in Stafford and went north up to Monson yesterday and you definitely lost some of the spring appeal east of about exit 64-65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Going to get hot at the Snow Beach tomorrow... today felt great at work driving the tracked vehicles all over the hill. Blindingly bright out there on the snow and May sun angle. This is about as robust as I've seen it to start May in my decade living around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Going to get hot at the Snow Beach tomorrow... today felt great at work driving the tracked vehicles all over the hill. Blindingly bright out there on the snow and May sun angle. This is about as robust as I've seen it to start May in my decade living around here. Too bad you're closed :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Too bad you're closed :-( "Skin up and earn your turns" Ummm f that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2018 Author Share Posted May 2, 2018 00z NAM's trying to break records tomorrow. +16 850 mb now. 32 C 2-meter not impossible given these numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Cape cod to plymouth is behind in the greenup schedule. Canopy trees have no leaves yet. As of yesterday the maples are flowering. The oak buds are showing noticeable signs of life, but oaks in my area don't life out until the 2nd week of may. Magnolia and dogwoods are flowering. Pears crab apples and cherries all springing to life. Rhododendrons are flowering. My rose bush is happy. Pollen season is about to hit everyone like a freight train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Omg, the Sagamore Bridge construction is over!!! At least I have a few weeks to enjoy tourist free cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 I can't wait for the warmth today. I don't know about elsewhere, but here, yesterday ended up being cloudy much of the day, ftl. I expect a light switch on all the trees. The delayed early bloomers will be bursting with the late bloomers. Tough year for allergy sufferers. At least the season may be short--although perhaps intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 10 hours ago, ineedsnow said: how do you figure 10 to 14 days? And at least around my neighborhood.. most trees are not leafing out.. buds are definitely showing though.. just spent 8 days in Florida thought for sure it would be popping more by now!! At least for me, my forsythia bloomed about 7-10 days after the ones did down in the valley. I see the same thing happening with other species I'm seeing blooming down there and not doing anything here. There's different areas too because there are some parts of Longmeadow that are even further ahead. It looked like even the oaks were going to pop down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 TORCH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, MetHerb said: At least for me, my forsythia bloomed about 7-10 days after the ones did down in the valley. I see the same thing happening with other species I'm seeing blooming down there and not doing anything here. There's different areas too because there are some parts of Longmeadow that are even further ahead. It looked like even the oaks were going to pop down there. A difference of 500’ in elevation shouldn’t make a 7-10 day difference though. Unless your mesoscale area radiates. A Two- three degree difference in high temps won’t affect it that much. I’ve notice diferences at low elevations but seems to be cooler nights in these areas affecting it. My folks always say how I’m days ahead of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Should be near 90 BDL-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Even though it didn’t look quite the DSD as it will be today I’ll give Kevin credit. However debris clouds Awt tomorrow may keep temps down a few. More humid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 6z MAV with 91° at CON which would tie the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even though it didn’t look quite the DSD as it will be today I’ll give Kevin credit. However debris clouds Awt tomorrow may keep temps down a few. More humid though. Well I distinctly recall posting look at 850’s, downsloping and no foliage and Macs could tickle 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Should be near 90 BDL-BOS. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I distinctly recall posting look at 850’s, downsloping and no foliage and Macs could tickle 90 Euro 850s supported it. The other models eventually came around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Weekend really starting to look like poop, was hoping we'd get a HHH weekend early for a true Cinco De Taco feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2018 Author Share Posted May 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Weekend really starting to look like poop, was hoping we'd get a HHH weekend early for a true Cinco De Taco feel Saturday should be decent 'weather' ... as in fair with sun around and temps seasonal or even slightly above normal.. but if you were looking for triple H weather that wasn't every really in the cards for those two days. Sunday's unclear ...but may end up showery. The boundary tries to come back from the south and we could get into some overrunning rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 How are tomorrow's T storm chances looking in WNE? models did not look as robust this morning but I'm not great at interpreting that stuff beyond the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 41° at CON this morning. Outside shot at a 50° range if MAV verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 10 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Definitely noticed a difference as well. You're probably about a solid week behind Enfield but things are popped even more right near HFD down through Wethersfield/Rocky HIll. Took 84 east up to route 32 in Stafford and went north up to Monson yesterday and you definitely lost some of the spring appeal east of about exit 64-65. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: A difference of 500’ in elevation shouldn’t make a 7-10 day difference though. Unless your mesoscale area radiates. A Two- three degree difference in high temps won’t affect it that much. I’ve notice diferences at low elevations but seems to be cooler nights in these areas affecting it. My folks always say how I’m days ahead of them. It does, at least around here. I travel between the CT River Valley and home several times a week and you notice the difference. See the post above yours that I quoted. Especially this time of year and in the fall you notice it. The grass is greener, flowers are further along, etc. and it's not just micro climates, it's the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 already up to 73.4 from a low of 46.2 .. should easily be a 40+ diurnal range today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2018 Author Share Posted May 2, 2018 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: 41° at CON this morning. Outside shot at a 50° range if MAV verifies. it was actually an interesting study ...albeit tedious for some, as to whether areas would be able to decouple overnight. The idea was that the warm/diffused warm boundary would pass and WSW flow might keep things mixed ... That was sort of true down my way along Rt poop but then decoupling won .. We had two nadirs in temp ...the first was around 11:30 into the upper 50s, then... between midnight and 3 am the temp rose back to the low 60s.. then, the wind went calm and it bottomed all the way to 47... Within an hour of sun up the temp bounced to 68! ... that's pretty fantastic a recovery just for the first hour - in fact, among the greatest I've seen for diurnal phenom. Obviously I've seen 35 F losses in twenty min or less due to BDs.. Anyway, 74 now... but it's clicking multiple decimals up every three minutes... gonna be 80 in a hurry at this rate. Basically, two hours and change since sun up and already talking 27 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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