RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Brutal pattern for spring....would be nice in July though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2018 Author Share Posted May 29, 2018 Nothing like cold air instability grapple and elevation snow showers in June ... totally normal - What's stranger, the Euro pushing that at the end of its runs... or, the fact that we'll end up above average at the end of it when going by seasonal trend. You know the climate is f'ed when you achieve two quantum states simultaneously -...hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nothing like cold air instability grapple and elevation snow showers in June ... totally normal - What's stranger, the Euro pushing that at the end of its runs... or, the fact that we'll end up above average at the end of it when going by seasonal trend. You know the climate is f'ed when you achieve two quantum states simultaneously -...hahaha I think it was only two years ago I saw my only June snowflakes ever... June 12th I think it was? Snowing above 3000ft enough to have to close the Auto Toll Road on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 16 hours ago, powderfreak said: I think it was only two years ago I saw my only June snowflakes ever... June 12th I think it was? Snowing above 3000ft enough to have to close the Auto Toll Road on Mansfield. I can't recall the year but it was mid 1990's I remember it being up in Kingfield Maine and measurable snow fell up at the top of Sugarloaf and the Bigelow range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 I'm wondering if Alberto's heat flux/remnants dumping into the mid-west ... that may be a 'transitive factor' in why the models are generating huge confluence in central Canada. The idea there is that the ridge is being inflated by latent heat transport, and that subsequently enhances confluence mechanics over Canada. Using that ..the models then construct (error in doing so notwithstanding?) a large, sprawling surface high pressure anomaly at the surface ... one that is both quite obnoxious to look at, but more importantly very pervasive ... Enough so to set up an easterly fetch south over an equally very larger region of southeastern Canada and the eastern OV/NE/MA that looks a little anti-seasonal to put it nicely. Have to remember, anomalies do happen... Anti-seasonal does not mean it cannot happen. That said ..as the mid latitudes are initially forced to ingest the huge latent heat injection from Alberto's guts ... eviscerating into the flow over the GL... it's not impossible that the models are over-doing those transitive effects. The Euro did tend weaker both in areal coverage and mass, wrt to said high pressure. Not enough to stop another pernicious BD event from shutting summer down for a couple more days late in the weekend.. but, that fact alone "might" be a beginning trend where future guidance backs off more. I tell you one thing that's interesting is that the thicknesses are exceeding 570 DM all over the eastern OV/NE regions S of central ..yet, the NAM can't get the interior surface temperatures over 20 C the next two days (after today). That's weird... those lofty depth numbers at our latitude uuusually require a temperature component to accompany DPs. Edit; recent NAM MOS do have 72 -type temps for interior zones so maybe that's getting corrected too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Maybe one of the Mets can comment on this. The GFS qpf maps always drive me a little bonkers. Compare the Euro and GFS for the upcoming system. I know there will be convection driven rainfall so it will be highly variable but the GFS always seem to over correct on terrain driven rain. I think PF commented on this earlier in the year. The Euro will kind of broad stroke areas which I like but the GFS seems to show too much qpf in high relief areas in too little qpf in valleys. Not a big deal in Eastern SNE but up here in my area it is really hard to get a handle on how much qpf will really fall. Maybe its a higher res model but I don't think it does much good if it is not accurate. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 21 hours ago, powderfreak said: I think it was only two years ago I saw my only June snowflakes ever... June 12th I think it was? Snowing above 3000ft enough to have to close the Auto Toll Road on Mansfield. Had snowflakes at 540' in Ft. Kent on June 9 and 10, 1980. On the 10th a flurry was heavy enough to turn the grass a lime green color, but still only a trace. West of Allagash at 1,000+ there was 1-2". (Still doesn't match the 3" that fell near St.-Pamphile, PQ on the overnight of June 17, 1964, though 1980's daytime accumulation makes it close.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2018 Author Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Had snowflakes at 540' in Ft. Kent on June 9 and 10, 1980. On the 10th a flurry was heavy enough to turn the grass a lime green color, but still only a trace. West of Allagash at 1,000+ there was 1-2". (Still doesn't match the 3" that fell near St.-Pamphile, PQ on the overnight of June 17, 1964, though 1980's daytime accumulation makes it close.) 12z Euro at it again... June 4th and is clearly attempting parachuts as low as 2,000 feet over SW NH ... Even for 2,000 feet that's the latest and farthest south I've ever heard of that. Maybe 'year without a summer' or some sh! Obviously, slim chance the Euro verifies that successfully - in fact, that model's subtle bias to over amp troughs(ridges) in late mid ranges really seems prevalent on this run around the 3rd, 4th, and 5th. One could super-impose that charts over a January 4 and the wave lengths might seem reasonable. ... it's been a problem in all models really... or perhaps the atmosphere (now there's a thought...). But it's this inability to admit that winter has ended out in that time range and the extends. We can't seem to truly shake gradients between the 50 and 60th parallel and the 35th, pretty much everywhere, and as a result, every couple models cycles or so and the long wave lengths and attendant unusually intense mid latitude cyclones return.. . interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Euro and EPS both have 40’s - low 50’s all of next week in SNE with 4-8” of rain. There’s probably no way out of this . Get ready for a week like early June 2015 . Going to be brutal . Just hope they wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Euro gone wild, hard sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro and EPS both have 40’s - low 50’s all of next week in SNE with 4-8” of rain. There’s probably no way out of this . Get ready for a week like early June 2015 . Going to be brutal . Just hope they wrong. Meanwhile GFS offers less than 1/2" in Augusta thru day 10, though it adds 1.3" for days 11-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Early June 2006 redux next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Early June 2006 redux next week?2009 was wet here in JuneSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 2009 was wet here in June Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk He meant June 2015. SNE had 5 days of rain and 40’s/50’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 We’re all naming recent Junes..obviously it’s not so unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: He meant June 2015. SNE had 5 days of rain and 40’s/50’s 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Early June 2006 redux next week? Wasn't 2006 that spring we had tons of flooding and the spicket river was at record stage or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re all naming recent Junes..obviously it’s not so unusual. 10 coldest first ten days in Boston, like Kev said 2015 is right up there after a torrid May that year too. 1 55.5 1945-06-10 0 2 57.5 1997-06-10 0 3 58.1 1955-06-10 0 4 58.2 2015-06-10 0 5 58.6 1948-06-10 0 6 59.1 1982-06-10 0 7 59.8 1947-06-10 0 8 59.9 1964-06-10 0 9 60.1 2012-06-10 0 10 60.5 1946-06-10 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 coldest first ten days in Boston, like Kev said 2015 is right up there after a torrid May that year too. 1 55.5 1945-06-10 0 2 57.5 1997-06-10 0 3 58.1 1955-06-10 0 4 58.2 2015-06-10 0 5 58.6 1948-06-10 0 6 59.1 1982-06-10 0 7 59.8 1947-06-10 0 8 59.9 1964-06-10 0 9 60.1 2012-06-10 0 10 60.5 1946-06-10 0 Some pretty torrid summers on that date list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 My wife has been after me to get the pool opened. I waited a few days to call the guy and he is busy, won't be able to come for a while. I showed her some of the model output and told her not to worry about the pool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: My wife has been after me to get the pool opened. I waited a few days to call the guy and he is busy, won't be able to come for a while. I showed her some of the model output and told her not to worry about the pool... I need rain, my pool is a good 8 inches below the skinner. I put water in a little at a time but with a well I have to be careful. Its low because of my own damn fault. I was siphoning water off the cover and left the hose on the cover not knowing the branch which hit the pool had punctured a hole in it, so I went to work and came home to a whole lot of siphoned water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2018 Author Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Some pretty torrid summers on that date list. That's what I'm wondering... My memories seem sloped in favor of butt bang summers to follow these odd-ball late May and June coastal events. Which ...by the way, no one kid themselves - that is a January pattern superimposed over a summer thickness medium. Period. Despite the [irony] of a warm May... we never really shook the tendency for high(ish) latitude blocking so this sort of synoptic evolution portrayed for early /mid next week was probably lucky we haven't seen it sooner. May chaos muted an April signal that's coming right back into play because it was always there lurking in wait - Creepiness aside... here we are, and a Miller B of all things... okay - Anyway, as to attempting correlations? It may be noise... but, 2002 had noodles in Waltham and 1.5" in the Worcester Hills on May 22nd ...and I believe that summer turned out on the toastier side to follow. Contrasting...since then, I remember more cool, clammy regressed Junes and the summers were temperate with all heat shunting S toward PHL the rest of the way. I'm not sure which is ultimately favored in a 100 year study - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Speaking of rainfall, this is what it has been like down here the last 30 days; that 20"+ area is in my county over me; thank goodness drainage is good here! Pattern changes next week to warm but drier as you transition to cool and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 We may not be very wet as heavy stuff has shifted SW over the MId- AtL thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Record low max threat Mon/Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 53 minutes ago, Modfan said: Speaking of rainfall, this is what it has been like down here the last 30 days; that 20"+ area is in my county over me; thank goodness drainage is good here! Pattern changes next week to warm but drier as you transition to cool and wet. Congrats on bird size Mosquitos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: Record low max threat Mon/Tue. Maybe a 44-46 up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Final numbers have been compiled. I don’t feel like sifting thru pages ,, but a top 5 warm Mayorch has been realized as a few folks discussed early month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe a 44-46 up there? Maybe a cheap early midnight high Monday and some late improvement Tuesday to spoil the record fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Modfan said: Speaking of rainfall, this is what it has been like down here the last 30 days; that 20"+ area is in my county over me; thank goodness drainage is good here! Pattern changes next week to warm but drier as you transition to cool and wet. I was down there 2 weeks end of April beginning of May and it was gorgeous. It maybe rained once and was 80s, sunny with no humidity just about everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 A year ago at this time the Treasure coast was in a nasty drought. Reversals come quick these days. Ask N TX, CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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