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May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Tomorrow afternoon - Wet or just dreary in central CT?

 

Well... either is "dreary" ... but, this journey through a BD invasion is not presently modeled to bring much rain fall throughout the region, tomorrow but I'm admittedly looking at the NAM. I suppose any time we unseat a 90 F air mass by wedging in a cold one underneath... maybe some overrunning gunk can over-perform.

It's basically just an invasion of cold air under slate gray skies for a day to a day and half. Temps probably make the low 50s back east, but upper 50 to a pop 61 down there.

The NAM and recent Euro runs indicate its brevity by beginning the recovery as soon as Monday afternoon.  They have the pressure pattern suddenly collapsing and offering land wind kicking in during the afternoon. It's hard to say how much sun the region will get ...or if so in time, but probably down where y'all have the better chance for skies to open some between 2 to 3 pm.  Some lesser reliable model types (ICON and so forth) actually have 85 F at Albany at 4 pm ...and should the wind at that time be veered around to the WSW with some sun..it's not a hard leap to wonder if some temp jumping happens over western zones.  It wouldn't shock me if HFD-southern VT have a late high that day ..and probably even eastern zones have an evening higher temperature.  I guess what I'm getting at is that Mem day its self may not be as terrible.  

Tomorrow is unfortunately a schit show.  If it stays dry -ish ... it'll just be cool and dim. Which, I suppose is doable once the collection of a primer beer and a couple Long Island ice-teas kick in and market the day as something it's not...

Might be 90 on Tuesday... These BD invasions are pretty endemic to this little corner of the globe.  Combination of factors team up to force low level masses of cold stable air to quite literally cut back west at low levels of the troposphere.  The initial momentum is way NE of our lat and long.. but, the air mass does not encounter any reason to stop (sparing technical jargon..) so it keeps moving in that lowest level ..usually until is slams up against the interior elevations...  If it's shallow enough, it stops moving west roughly along the first S-N oriented topographic features it encounters, the Monadnock's down through the Worcester Hills.. If it's deeper, like this will be.. it crests those ranges and keeps right on spilling west into the valley areas and then (probably) quite analogous to a water filling behind a dam, it gets deeper as it impinges upon the Berks and stops there.  At that point, ...it may turn and begin moving more S along the 95-corridor coastal plain... all the way to PHL and DCA ... even the VA Capes in some cases.  PHL's wind does flip ENE so this is one of those times where it is aggressive enough to keep on 'filling' into the M/A.  Meanwhile, the 500 mb pattern over head in these scenarios often appears to not really support that behavior below - part of the frustration. "Where the hell did this come from". 

It's really a uniqueness about this region, how those forces can create a situation where the standard 500 mb products belie what is taking place at the surface.  Much more typically... if you see attributes at 500 mb, those are pretty directly correlated to surface behaviors.  That fundamental breaks down here...  The fact that there are elevations west and nothing but a cold ocean east, ... once a cold thick viscous air mass starts 'filling that space in' it will continue to do so until it is influenced by some other force sufficient to stop it.. That force is an abeyance of the flow that started the process. 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would plan on little to no rain in SNE. Maybe a few showers scattered around tomorrow morning 

Agreed... although, there could be some overrunning gunk seeded at low levels... The higher res models are misting .01 and .02 intervals for eastern zones...it's unclear at best if that's a, real... but, b, "weather" that gets more pervasive. 

I could see things going either just dry and packed overcast and cool, or, all that with more occasionally damp. 

Like all BDs... this is an atmospheric epileptic event haha...  We're going along, 36 hour seizure/interruption, then, the previous dynamic resumes.  GFS MOS has 90 at KFIT for Tuesday afternoon.  Euro and NAM actually have you guys out your way popping back to 70 to 75 during the afternoon on Monday...  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed... although, there could be some overrunning gunk seeded at low levels... The higher res models are misting .01 and .02 intervals for eastern zones...it's unclear at best if that's a, real... but, b, "weather" that gets more pervasive. 

I could see things going either just dry and packed overcast and cool, or, all that with more occasionally damp. 

Like all BDs... this is an atmospheric epileptic event haha...  We're going along, 36 hour seizure/interruption, then, the previous dynamic resumes.  GFS MOS has 90 at KFIT for Tuesday afternoon.  Euro and NAM actually have you guys out your way popping back to 70 to 75 during the afternoon on Monday...  

Yeah all things considered, it’s a winning weekend. One HHH day and a normal day in the 70’s, sandwiched between a cool to mild day. If it’s mainly dry , it’s fine with shorts and a pullover . Next week looks very dewy

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tamarack

tamarack

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Nice patch of echoes passed just to the south, then blossomed just to the east.  Models say next chance is a little bit late Monday, after that it's wait until next month.  Going out to hook up the hose. 

Morning low here was 62, which would tie for mildest May minimum if it lasts, but I think the BD will push us into the 50s by this evening.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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For all the crap the GFS eats around here...  at least as far as this weekend's events are concerned, that model absolutely destroyed the Euro.

In fact, the Euro was the worst at handling the BD/recession of fair conditions for Sunday into Monday.  There were more than just one cycle over the last few days where the Euro attempted to sell us a reality that both went against climo and common sense for those of us hardened by BD's of lore... but also, observable synoptics too.  But, the next run showed it more S and that was the smokin' gun that it more likely was just having problems with it.  The other guidance types were somewhat better. 

So, anyway, the GFS pegged this like a week ago and was unrelenting every run all week long...

I'm sure this won't be remember in December when the Euro has a snow storm and the GFS has something less than what people want -

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weathafella

weathafella

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For all the crap the GFS eats around here...  at least as far as this weekend's events are concerned, that model absolutely destroyed the Euro.

In fact, the Euro was the worst at handling the BD/recession of fair conditions for Sunday into Monday.  There were more than just one cycle over the last few days where the Euro attempted to sell us a reality that both went against climo and common sense for those of us hardened by BD's of lore... but also, observable synoptics too.  But, the next run showed it more S and that was the smokin' gun that it more likely was just having problems with it.  The other guidance types were somewhat better. 

So, anyway, the GFS pegged this like a week ago and was unrelenting every run all week long...

I'm sure this won't be remember in December when the Euro has a snow storm and the GFS has something less than what people want -

GFS sucks wind on coastal storms in winter-it just does.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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High of 67F today, though it has been feeling on the humid side with dews around 60F. 

Funny to see all the heat not far south of here and we'll log a high in the 60s up this way for the day. 

Looks like most of the eastern US is baking except for this sliver across NNE.

IvMUqQF.png

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

High of 67F today, though it has been feeling on the humid side with dews around 60F. 

Funny to see all the heat not far south of here and we'll log a high in the 60s up this way for the day. 

Looks like most of the eastern US is baking except for this sliver across NNE.

IvMUqQF.png

Topped at 68* at Pit2.  In Freeport now, much warmer.

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tamarack

tamarack

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On ‎5‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 12:03 AM, dendrite said:

It can stop raining now.

It can start raining now.  No measurable for the past week and less than 1/2" since the early month TS.  Driest May of 20 here, or 21 if I count 1998, our move-in month with records for only 17-31. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What is causing the lack of warmth in the Northeast on the GFS beyond the weekend?   Noose worthy for those looking for summer.

Not that I take much stock in it

Take a look at the 500mb heights on 12z GFS today.

NAO is progged to go negative just after the first of the month.

Flow get pinched off for a few days and a low pressure gets caught and retrogrades around another cutoff low which backdoors us in the Northeast.

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