Lava Rock Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 50s and RN up here on Sunday. Delightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 So the weekend is full on poop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 Just now, Whineminster said: So the weekend is full on poop now? nah prob MU 80s Sat before bdcf comes thru Sat afternoon/evening, but sunday isn't looking great and Monday is questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 I've seen worse weekends than this : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 36 minutes ago, scoob40 said: I've seen worse weekends than this : Looks optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 I can't even recall the last weekend that didn't have rain at least one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I can't even recall the last weekend that didn't have rain at least one day. May have to go back to New Years...lawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 There Euro's been trying to hold the BD back, off and on, over several cycles... 00z did have it, but it was comparatively weak. Contrasting, the GFS/GGEM have been full on gray days dead calm socked in with Maritime air all the way down to NYC by Sunday morning and refuse to relent on that... Not sure what to make of it ... the Euro is on it's own for one (haven't seen the ensemble mean) comparing these operational run types. That's A. B, hate to say but there are two arguments that support the GFS and GGEM, that don't support the Euro.. and those are climatology, and... the NW flow through Ontario. Both those incline me to believe the Euro may be in error... Sunday will be 4 days on this 12z run ... The Euro's wheel house begins... it's verification scoring jumps above the others at this range and inward so we'll see - One thing to keep in mind ... the pressure pattern will have a disproportionate cold push behind it because the air will be modulated by the ocean for SW pushing BLs like the GFS. The high pressure is actually escaping east of Nova Scotia and the backward moving bulge is stretching all the way to NYC - it's one of the charms of the BD phenomenon ...seems to roll in long after the trigger no longer exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks optimistic. Thought that myself. Probably will have to shave off a few degrees it seems for Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 Also, if the BD/boundary layer push is pallid like the 00z Euro version... western zones probably would suffer less yank back cooling. Heh... about once or twice per spring we are good for a 48 F at BVY and 86 F at HFD... maybe at some point this weekend we clock one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Also, if the BD/boundary layer push is pallid like the 00z Euro version... western zones probably would suffer less yank back cooling. Heh... about once or twice per spring we are good for a 48 F at BVY and 86 F at HFD... maybe at some point this weekend we clock one of those times. That's especially true west of the CT River too. It can be murky even in BDL, but then you have breaks and 70s from AQW to PSF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Also, if the BD/boundary layer push is pallid like the 00z Euro version... western zones probably would suffer less yank back cooling. Heh... about once or twice per spring we are good for a 48 F at BVY and 86 F at HFD... maybe at some point this weekend we clock one of those times. 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 12Z lol 2pm on Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend with those temps wedging in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 52 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's especially true west of the CT River too. It can be murky even in BDL, but then you have breaks and 70s from AQW to PSF. Take it straight up to BTV west of the barrier. 70s and sunny there while east of the Spine is stratus and 50-55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Take it straight up to BTV west of the barrier. 70s and sunny there while east of the Spine is stratus and 50-55F. I'll be in Ludlow this weekend. Hoping it's not too gray or wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 you know what the phenomenon reminds me of ... It's like when you open a door and cold air begins rolling in across the floor, then... you close the door right away. The 'pulse' of cold continues to roll through the bottom of the room, even though it's source is cut off? This type of BD ...well, most types of BDs for that matter, that's what is going on. The high pushes through N of Maine, and then it actually weakens and builds toward and over NS and yet you can see the pressure bulge in the barographic layout continue to fist SW against the enivornmental flow even even though the high that kicked the circulation started is long gone. It's the same physics really.. It's also helped along by the fact that there is a natural mechanism/physical counter vector that's pretty much always pointed west beneath about 300 mb off the surface... It's just a matter of when it is overcome...otherwise, we slosh back in that layer - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 But ... know what... fuggit. 85 here today... probably 74 tomorrow, and then it's 85-90 through 4pm on Saturday ... we can take a couple corrective days. Longer ranges still looks hot to me ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 48 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'll be in Ludlow this weekend. Hoping it's not too gray or wet. Hopefully less influence from the east as Ludlow is a classic east slope town with some elevation. They'll be cooler than up here if we get a healthy wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 Today was a top 10 day again... High of 74F with puffy Cu and cobalt blue skies. Loving these low to mid-70s days with no humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hopefully less influence from the east as Ludlow is a classic east slope town with some elevation. They'll be cooler than up here if we get a healthy wedge. Yeah exactly. We're up over 2000 feet just south of town. It's a pretty sick spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah exactly. We're up over 2000 feet just south of town. It's a pretty sick spot. That sounds like quite the weenie spot. Hey if it's 46F up there on east winds with upslope cooling, at least there's alcohol and good friends in the mountains. That location and elevation must get smoked in synoptic events given low level SE flow in most. They'll get flurries with NW flow but I bet that's a great nor'easter spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Clown NAM is sweet for Sunday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Clown NAM is sweet for Sunday. lol Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2018 Author Share Posted May 24, 2018 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yikes. The soundings would be about as backward sloped as can possibly happen at standard atmospheric physical density..haha. Yeah..the model quite figuratively seems like it tries to exceed the boundary of what is physically possible in scenarios such as these, between it's 60 and 84 hours... hence the expression 'clown' I suppose - I've been just waiting for this scenario to get into the range of the NAM, because I just knew it was going to do this. Yup. When it sees these it exceeds an abusive scale with them faster than a neutron reaction in an HBomb detonation... Having said that, although it will undoubtedly modify some - but as far as the event its self...? oh, it's in the mail! Just a matter as to magnitude. But we aren't getting out of a session with the BD dildo.. 'Sides, I don't really recall a Mem Day weekend that was truly unscathed from end to end - that's too much to ask in this cursed region of the planetary interface with the atmosphere... If I had my druthers I'd rather the warmth be Sat-Sun... buuuut, I'll take the split and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The soundings would be about as backward sloped as can possibly happen at standard atmospheric physical density..haha. Yeah..the model quite figuratively seems like it tries to exceed the boundary of what is physically possible in scenarios such as these, between it's 60 and 84 hours... hence the expression 'clown' I suppose - I've been just waiting for this scenario to get into the range of the NAM, because I just knew it was going to do this. Yup. When it sees these it exceeds an abusive scale with them faster than a neutron reaction in an HBomb detonation... Having said that, although it will undoubtedly modify some - but as far as the event its self...? oh, it's in the mail! Just a matter as to magnitude. But we aren't getting out of a session with the BD dildo.. 'Sides, I don't really recall a Mem Day weekend that was truly unscathed from end to end - that's too much to ask in this cursed region of the planetary interface with the atmosphere... If I had my druthers I'd rather the warmth be Sat-Sun... buuuut, I'll take the split and call it a day. I remember seeing near +20 at 850 and 50s at BOS before. Talk about backwards sloped..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2018 Author Share Posted May 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I remember seeing near +20 at 850 and 50s at BOS before. Talk about backwards sloped..lol. oh schit ...it happens from time to time... but that's about the edge of what we can see .... We probably won't be quite that bad, ...and a lot of that is hyperbole but you get me - sucks, period. I will add tho - ... at least the modeling tech has come along enough now that we have a more coherent notion of when and to what scale these cheating backward momentum things are going to happen (haha). When the nodal surface high is pressing E of NS and the pressure is still rising from that direction, just on the baser conceptual level ...that seems like a no-no. Fascinating if one can get passed the personal insult of it. Anyway, I remember modeling as near in time as the 1990s with some 'hints' of these things in the surface pressure patterns for D 3 and 4 ... only to have them rabbit punch their way down the Va Capes with strata choke abandon when they verify. In this case... well, the models are pretty hard suggesting that, if not spelling it out... I put out an APB im to family warning that Sunday's not looking so great for the bro-in-laws big yard party... wah wah waaah I think 1 out of 200 of these scenarios fails on the warm side ... so, I guess at 200::1 you have a chance it won't - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 GFS has Kayem weenies blowing away to the west up here late afternoon Saturday. It tries to get the return sfc flow in here Monday, but it'd probably be a murky day for much of NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 12z EURO has ORH at 53F at 2pm Sunday afternoon, lol. Congrats Tolland Massif too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 12z EURO has ORH at 53F at 2pm Sunday afternoon, lol. Congrats Tolland Massif too. Sucks wish those 75 to 85s sat sun mon we were promised were here instead. Today is stellar though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 roughly 30 more nights and than nights get longer days get shorter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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