LurkerBoy Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 What's the LR looking like heat-wize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What's the LR looking like heat-wize What's your MET friend telling you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Great, another rainy saturday coming up. Yard work ftl, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 23 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: What's the LR looking like heat-wize This was explained already ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 is there any appreciable rain in the future? it certainly has been a dry month, at least in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: is there any appreciable rain in the future? it certainly has been a dry month, at least in my area. Saturday has potential if the tropical moisture down in FL can push N far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 And yes, it has been a dry month. Less than 1/2" thru 14 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 i made a mistake with the lawn, i guess you could say that it was a lava rock rookie move. a few weeks ago i seeded a couple bare areas. that was the kiss of death rain-wise. haven't gotten squat for rain since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i made a mistake with the lawn, i guess you could say that it was a lava rock rookie move. a few weeks ago i seeded a couple bare areas. that was the kiss of death rain-wise. haven't gotten squat for rain since. Join the club. I raked out the mole diggings on the 5th and spot-seeded, thinking things were in good shape with RA forecast for Sunday/Wednesday/Saturday. Zero for 3 - last measurable was the TS late on May 4th. Not only lack of rain, but consistently low RH, enabling lots of big diurnal ranges; temps May 5-14 averaged 68/35. Local river flow is less than half the median for the date, well under 25th percentile and sinking fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2018 Author Share Posted May 18, 2018 Regionally .. .many locales may be warmer at midnight tomorrow night than they will be at noon tomorrow... perhaps by a large number, too. I could see it being light rain wet-bulbed to the upper 40s at some places... then, that warm from careens in and blasts through the area around 00z ...and by or just prior to midnight the temp might be in the mid 60s at those some locations.. I mean, this is the sort of thing that takes place in winter. I've bemused in the past how this season has really seemed like a winter pattern persisting over a summer hemisphere ... perhaps that sort of synoptic transition taking place plays homage to that vexation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Some of you bemoaning the lack of rain up there are welcome to have some of mine. It's been unnecessarily wet down here to the point of fungus and mold in the garden and a really wonderful mushroom selection in the woods. Add in a historic severe event and a few days with no power and I'm about tired of this season already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2018 Author Share Posted May 20, 2018 The Euro 12z looks darn toasty D 5, 6, and 7 ... It actually had something similar on the 00z run (synoptically). Gives us a NW flow look at over the top heat... The air mass doesn't have a Sonoran origin, but +13 to +15C with lower DPs and very high sun angles, and WNW flow would offer some pretty tall BL... could see that upper 80s and blowing up the American machine guidance if that verifies. ... edit: actually the GFS MOS is already over 80 F for those three days to the tune of some 11 to 14 over climo, so that could easily correct toward 87 or 88 at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Yeah...tail end of the week and the holiday weekend look like they could be summery. May should end up well AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Weekend starting to look a little poopy, at least on Friday/Saturday and maybe Sunday....probably will be like this past weekend. Cloudy with On/Off showers and dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: Weekend starting to look a little poopy, at least on Friday/Saturday and maybe Sunday....probably will be like this past weekend. Cloudy with On/Off showers and dews. It really (at this time...) depends upon which model source one employs... The Euro and GFS have hugely disparate sensible weather types do to their respective handling of synoptic evolution. In short, GFS has vicious back-dooring...the Euro does not. The longer version ... the Euro has a smoothed, mid-level NW flow over (at first) southeastern Canada... devoid of any "kinks" of identifiable confluence/DVM packets beginning Friday - then, over the next three days into early next week, it's gradually lifted that axis of westerlies yet further NE toward the D. Straight region in response to what appears to be a bona fide phase shift in the NAO. This latter factor may actually play a roll as we turn the page from May to June ... but that's later on.. The GFS on the other hand has the 'kink' and the confluence, and the resulting high pressure over eastern Ontario... and as it slides this +PP toward the Maritimes... a BD is a slam dunk Mem Weekend ruiner in that evolution. The sensible differences would be remarkable to put in diplomatically... The Euro has primarily off-shore components with +13 to +16C at 850s, under late may sun! Talkin' upper 80s for perhaps three or fours straight days... The GFS on the other hand ... we'd be warm until late Saturday but then then the party's over until further notice... Low 50s on Sunday with strata mank and occasional drizzle beeds on the windshields. Hugely...starkly contrasting between those scenarios. I'd call it a dilemma if any of this had any paramount importance to reality as we know it (ha ha) but... for lack of better word, the Euro has better operational verification scoring (as we all know). However, next weekend is a tad outside it's wheelhouse of < 4.5 days, when that is true. I am thus wondering if it's smoothing/error controls are over normalizing the features in the flow over eastern Canada ...which thus "maybe" blinds it from BD at this time range... ? It's a fair enough question. Perhaps a nod to the GFS ... BDs are both climate-friendly in May, but proooobably a better fit for both seasonal trend, and this persistent NW flow through southeast Canada plaguing the spring thus far. However, there is a caveat to that NW flow regime - it's changing... There is a coherent signal that the monster +NAO and it's unusually pervasive wave lengths may finally break down... The Euro seems to be doing that faster than the GFS ... The GFS does hint and or do the same, but it takes that model a week or more to get the deed done. The thing is... the Euro could be right about this larger scale modulation of the pattern, but still miss the BD (should one evolve) this weekend ... So...as usual... a lot of moving part there in the mid and extended range(s). A compromise is probably the course of least regret until perhaps Wednesday...if we can get to that day and the Euro is still BD-free thru Sunday. Then it may become likelier the GFS is wrong despite those seasonal trends and other arguments. How's that for a tedious synoptic overview during a season when no one will read it - haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 58 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Weekend starting to look a little poopy, at least on Friday/Saturday and maybe Sunday....probably will be like this past weekend. Cloudy with On/Off showers and dews. Drunk? Friday and Sat on all modeling has 85-90. Sunday might be a pop storm and Monday a line of storms and super humid ahead of cold front. Very hot summery weekend on tap thanks on large part to the tropical system helping pump the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Farther north it looks warm, moist and cloudy - hope that means significant RA. 06z GFS has an absolute blast furnace for early June, outer limit clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Saturday is real wet up here on Euro with around an 1" of rain locally, and .5-1.0" for NNE. High in the low-70s in NNE (LCI to BTV and N/E) while SNE bakes. Bummer. GFS is even worse... Upper 50s to mid-60s up north while it's 90F in SNE. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: Farther north it looks warm, moist and cloudy - hope that means significant RA. 06z GFS has an absolute blast furnace for early June, outer limit clown range. Some solid rain on the Euro over the next 7 days. 2-4" over all of NVT and NNH, tapering to 1-2" in Maine. Would be welcomed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Some solid rain on the Euro over the next 7 days. 2-4" over all of NVT and NNH, tapering to 1-2" in Maine. Would be welcomed rain. 12Z GFS now with 2 chamber days Sun and Monday after a meh frontal passage Sat night, that would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 yeah... WPC echoing the sentiments: The big issue lies in the northern stream, where there is a sudden lack of clarity on whether or not a trough moves through eastern Canada. The main fly in the ointment flow pattern-wise for the Northeast is the latitude of the mid-level vortex towards the North Pole. More southerly guidance like the 00z ECMWF/00z Canadian allow this system to bridge southward to the system transiting the Great Lakes, using another shortwave moving across west-central Canada. The GFS/GEFS mean are more northerly and become out of phase with the Canadian/ECMWF guidance building a ridge over Ontario and Quebec. This leads to profoundly different pressure patterns across New England, with the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS on opposite extremes. Since the guidance has shown a bit of variability with the Ontario/Quebec ridge, the preferred 500 hPa heights, surface winds, and pressures were based on the consensus. This led to an even blend of the 00z UKMET, 00z ECMWF, 00z Canadian, and 06z GFS through Saturday before using increasing amounts of the 00z NAEFS mean and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean thereafter, with some preference for the 00z Canadian amongst the deterministic guidance for Sunday into Next Monday over the 00z ECMWF/06z GFS solutions. This allowed for reasonable continuity and opens the window to later guidance shifts. Although I disagree that the 06z should be couched with the 00z ECMWF ... they too are out of phase later in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 12Z GFS now with 2 chamber days Sun and Monday after a meh frontal passage Sat night, that would be perfect lol...Tolland weeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 I would love me some 90F and sun on Memorial Day, but sun takes precedence. I'll lock that GFS run for next weekend, this far out, all day all night. A little fropa rain on Sat and then we cP high pressah it the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol...Tolland weeps Based on a Gfs run? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol...Tolland weeps Hopefully they weep over the mulch bed, it's good for the dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 If I were betting I'd slap my dough down on Friday and Saturday being rather summery to even hot not out of the question, as GFS machine numbers are 87 and 86 respectively for those two days and that's probably climate tinted at this sort of time range. Synoptically the Euro looks warmer but ... I can figure for the usual inventing gnats in the flow on the GFS. The Euro came about half way toward the GFS ... which, half way is only draping the BD down to about PSM...maybe Boston by day break on Sunday and then slips pallid BD down to about NYC by early Monday... Thing is, comparatively weak surface pressure patterns come with disproportionate successful cooling in 2-meter temps over eastern zones when it comes to fresh BDs over the frigid Labrador waters... I think that behavior of vacillating SW with the boundary is more telling then where ever it ends up on this particular run... That flow of eastern Canada, as also outlined by NCEP is tricky... with a fairly large area of mass-field disparate handling between those runs... still on this 12z cycle. On whole the trough is much stronger in the GFS... Quite weak in Euro ...almost doesn't exist... But, the model does use enough vesitigial NW trajectories to muck with highs on Sunday over coastal central NE and points S during that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Ugh that euro run is a weekend disaster. Get that boundary out of here. Either up to Fredericton or down to Forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ugh that euro run is a weekend disaster. Get that boundary out of here. Either up to Fredericton or down to Forky. lol 50s for many by later Sunday and Monday. Holds LCI at like 49F for 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2018 Author Share Posted May 21, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: lol 50s for many by later Sunday and Monday. Holds LCI at like 49F for 24 hours. That may be the last hurrah of the historically positive May NAO ... ... not sure of the 'history' part but f'n should be - jesus. Yet, we're above normal down here - hell hath no fury should the heights and thicknesses actually rise, huh. anyway, there are semblance of that finally breaking down... Probably, we slosh the hemisphere over-compensating back the other way... then neutralize summer after some ER visits... after the 4th ... I'm thinking June may be hot this time after what - 5 years in a row of cool ones. ... not sure of the '5 years in row' but it f'n seems that way - jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: lol 50s for many by later Sunday and Monday. Holds LCI at like 49F for 24 hours. Glad we don’t live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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