May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models

[moneypitmike]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mine are biting. It’s impossible to do anything outside right now.

Same here--just horrible when we finally have weather you want to soak in.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Which is pretty typical No? It's only 10 days and things have a way of settling down May 2001 was plus 11 through day 12 but ended up plus 1.5 We probably will be AN but nothing historic if modeling is correct .Saturday like the models predicted looks God awful.  Saving grace has been the perfect days if warm dry days and cool nights lately. Perfect for spring work, can do without the bugs though.

. 

More so than less.. I mean if I were asked on any given May 11, if I thought that month would end up averaging the same as the first ten days ... the wise choice, of course, is no ... for all the usual reasons.

It's really pretty hard (and rare) to get a month to be > +(-) 7 ... last months April having challenged that was pretty remarkable... and having green-up only mid way through at our latitude (well, mine anyway.. 42 and change) on May 11th is both belated and related.  Different discussion..

In short, we just say it is too soon to foist trophies one way or the other ...for May.  If someone wants to remark on the first ten day mean as being excessively biased ... I don't believe doing so is 'out-of-line' either.  For all of Kevin's heretic toward the common observation and decency to truism (haha...) he is right that the first ten days are impressive to anyone looking at the hard numbers ... As far as that 'top five' jazz ...meh... who cares.  Too much tedious look up for a number that is highly subject to change.  If we get to circa May 23-ish and we're still sporting monthly means of + 7 to +10 and so forth than the notice has more meaning for me, as does the count-down.

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mine are biting. It’s impossible to do anything outside right now.

Stay safe.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What a turrable way to live. Feel bad for the north. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What a turrable way to live. Feel bad for the north. 

You would think God wouldn't create hellish bugs in his country.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You would think God wouldn't create hellish bugs in his country.

Satin’s country?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Satin’s country?

Right up the road from me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satans_Kingdom,_Massachusetts

[weathafella]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Satin’s country?

Most be luxuriously soft.....

[Typhoon Tip]

welp... here's where the 'linear' teleconnector interpretation is failing warm weather enthusiasts... it occurs to me.

two scopes:

one, ...tele's tend to fade and be less correlative from roughly now through early September...  Despite that, the NAO in particular appears to be hugely hammering, which in a way ...fits with seasonal trend to be abhorrently anachronistic (with that cold lingering like it did and everything else just being bizarre...)

two, ...How? The NAO is hugely positive in the mid and extended range, but, it's not going to relate to what one might more typically see for positive phase states, which is ridging over eastern conus. There is, but it's getting squished S..   That pattern in the operational mean, particularly the Euro, really illustrates what's going on there. It is all somewhat analogous to early January 1994 .. .when a powerful west based +NAO was so overwhelming that it backed the NW flow around the D. straight trough ... all the way S into SE Canada, which caused huge cold transports rather incongruous with the general concept of the +NAO state... It's like sinusoidal?  If it gets so extreme, the implications oscillate back the other way...

That's happening in the Euro run... Really.. .the long wave actual wave length's are wending their way into such a shockingly wrong structure for this time of year, and all the above ... is related, and that will shut down summer until further notice.  How long?  who knows ...but that's the plight and probable failure of that expectation for heat that Ventrice and others' were flagging for mid month...

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Most be luxuriously soft.....

Lol!

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Satin’s country?

Our sheets are to die for though

 

[BrianW]

12 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Black fly season has arrived big time here. It doesn't take long for them to come out once the snow pack disappears. There were none early in the week, but now they're circling around my head within minutes of going inside. They are not biting yet though for some reason.

That said, I'd much rather have black flies than gypsy moths or winter moths since the flies doesn't destroy trees. Unfortunately, though the emerald ash borer has now been detected here in VT in Orange County. The EAB infestation that started around Pittsfield, MA has not made it here yet, but it's all around us so it's only a matter of time before it arrives. There's lots of dead or dying ash trees down that way since they've been infested for several years now. Between this new invasive, balsam/hemlock wooly adelgid, beech bark disease, black knot fungus, and the like (all disease that humans had a hand in introducing) many trees are having a hard time. The only trees that seem to be free of disease right now are the birches and maples. 

I've yet to get a tick up here despite lots of working in the yard and wandering in the woods. That doesn't mean they don't exist here, they likely do, probably just in lower numbers than they do in the valley and shoreline areas. Is there a limit to their cold tolerance or is it that the carriers don't exist as much up here?

 

 

In regards to the Emerald Ash Borer. I have been treating 2 60 year old green ash trees on my property my uncle planted for the past 5 years with Domion 2l insecticide. I soil drench them every spring and mine are still totally healthy while all the ash trees around me are almost completely dead. Cost about 10 dollars a year to treat both trees and is available on Amazon. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Mispelled his name oops. Guess I don’t know him as well as I thought.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mispelled his name oops. Guess I don’t know him as well as I thought.

Misspelled

[dendrite]

GFS pushes tomorrow far enough south that maybe I can get a few breaks. Could be a sneaky freeze tonight.

[weathafella]

Right.  The boundary may be far enough south that the sun really mehs the minus anomaly tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

May not rain much north of coast .Convection loves to rob moisture . Robs Peter to pay Paul

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty slow on tree leaf out as you climb in elevation and inland. Maples fully out Oaks Ash Cotton wood not so much. My hacienda

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

May not rain much north of coast .Convection loves to rob moisture . Robs Peter to pay Paul

 We could actually use a little rain here I just don't want it on my  weekend yardwork day.   If tomorrow is more of a miss the van hit with the precipitation it looks pretty dry going forward.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Black fly season has arrived big time here. It doesn't take long for them to come out once the snow pack disappears. There were none early in the week, but now they're circling around my head within minutes of going inside. They are not biting yet though for some reason.

That said, I'd much rather have black flies than gypsy moths or winter moths since the flies doesn't destroy trees. Unfortunately, though the emerald ash borer has now been detected here in VT in Orange County. The EAB infestation that started around Pittsfield, MA has not made it here yet, but it's all around us so it's only a matter of time before it arrives. There's lots of dead or dying ash trees down that way since they've been infested for several years now. Between this new invasive, balsam/hemlock wooly adelgid, beech bark disease, black knot fungus, and the like (all disease that humans had a hand in introducing) many trees are having a hard time. The only trees that seem to be free of disease right now are the birches and maples. 

I've yet to get a tick up here despite lots of working in the yard and wandering in the woods. That doesn't mean they don't exist here, they likely do, probably just in lower numbers than they do in the valley and shoreline areas. Is there a limit to their cold tolerance or is it that the carriers don't exist as much up here?

Bagged 12 dog ticks and 2 deer ticks Wednesday at near sea level in Topsham (midcoast, about 5 miles west of MPM's Pit 2), also a few blackfly and mosquito bites, but those weren't nearly bad enough to call for the deet.  Co-worker picked up 2 ticks (species not noted) above 1,500' in the Mahoosucs, Lat. 44.5 - probably almost as snowy and even colder than your location.  EAB has been in NH counties adjacent to Maine for 4-5 years but has yet to be spotted here - hard to believe it's not made the short journey east.  None of Forestry's trap trees yielded any of the critters.  (Volunteer landowners girdle ash trees about this time of year and the wounded trees become attractive to EAB.  The trees are felled the following winter and cut into +/-3 ft. sections and taken to Augusta where Forestry staff carefully removes the bark and looks for the distinctive EAB larvae channels.)

The ability of the grass seed I spot-applied last Saturday to repel rain is amazing - warded off Sunday's event, then Thursday's, and now tomorrow's.  The midweek convection seems to be going away as well.  GFS showing zero precip until day 9.  Seems to always happen when the bug splatters on windshields are ramping up.   30 minutes of driving thru rain does a better clean-up than a whole load of washer solution.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol!

For being quite the stickler on internet grammar, short posts, and millennial acronyms.....you sure are caving to the norm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For being quite the stickler on internet grammar, short posts, and millennial acronyms.....you sure are caving to the norm. 

Caving to the norm ..hm.  Well, if by that you mean 'am I normal?' - sure... I think things are funny from time to time.  Jerry's response, was f'n funny - sorry if you feel embarrassed and need to lash out, but honestly... I didn't even know who Jerry was directing that toward.  

... relax -  ...no one cares ultimately if you "myspeled satin", and if they do... how does that effect you directly again?   One could discover warp-speed technology and the ultimate cure for cancer on this site and it would be the last thing society even notices.  This really is a waste time, if one thinks they're actually contributing a consumable voice in the grander scale of reality and society ... In the early days of Wright and Eastern... I'd almost argue that intellectual and or astute observations and the like offered one more cache...  merit and/or usefulness in terms of resonating any kind of street cred in the greater ambit. But ...when this thing stole away and became a for profit enterprise four or five years ago, one where Moderation became more tolerant to the "razor sharp analysis of the hoi polloi" ... any intrinsic value turned into McDonald's cheeseburgers and well... movers and shakers don't eat there     That's what happens when chains go national and go for dough -

Heh... Saturday morning useless rant, I know - oh the hypocrisy

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Such a wierd dude. Have some fun, everything doesn’t have to be a psychoanlysis of an internet persona or modern day culture. Go with the times, let your hair down, stick your head out the window.....and feel the good vibes, they’re out there.

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Such a wierd dude. Have some fun, everything doesn’t have to be a psychoanlysis of an internet persona or modern day culture. Go with the times, let your hair down, stick your head out the window.....and feel the good vibes, they’re out there.

 

You were embarrassed, I laughed - deal with it

[weathafella]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well...with that ... the relentless chiding and teasing really needs to be targeted back at Jerry for even knowing that song -

Anyway, if the Euro holds .. D5 thru 9 or so might just be above normal temperature, and yes Kevin DPs elevated.   Not talking a steam bath or appreciably torrid heat, but, the Euro does differ enough with some key synoptic idiosyncrasies comparing to the GFS and GGEM. 

The latter two are not interested..  They keep enough N/stream domination that tiny protuberance confluences that you almost can't see with the unaided eye... and as they ripple along they generate these periodic surface +PP that N-door/BD cold, where contrasting the Euro is really weakening that whole look during those days.

Trend really supports the GFS/GGEM tho. I wonder if the Euro comes around soon to maintaining that massive +NAO look, which is so overwhelming everything with its vastly anachronistic N/stream band of westerlies arcing through mid Canada and through Ontario and out into the lower Maritimes, the weather everywhere is figuratively as though merely summer sun operating on top of a winter atmosphere.   .. until that whole construct breaks down, we are f'k'ed for summer enthusiasm.   Even in the Euro .. there's some 30 C differential between mid Ontario and NYC one or two of those days next week!   

 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well...with that ... the relentless chiding and teasing really needs to be targeted back at Jerry for even knowing that song -

Anyway, if the Euro holds .. D5 thru 9 or so might just be above normal temperature, and yes Kevin DPs elevated.   Not talking a steam bath or appreciably torrid heat, but, the Euro does differ enough with some key synoptic idiosyncrasies comparing to the GFS and GGEM. 

The latter two are not interested..  They keep enough N/stream domination that tiny protuberance confluences that you almost can't see with the unaided eye... and as they ripple along they generate these periodic surface +PP that N-door/BD cold, where contrasting the Euro is really weakening that whole look during those days.

Trend really supports the GFS/GGEM tho. I wonder if the Euro comes around soon to maintaining that massive +NAO look, which is so overwhelming everything with its vastly anachronistic N/stream band of westerlies arcing through mid Canada and through Ontario and out into the lower Maritimes, the weather everywhere is figuratively as though merely summer sun operating on top of a winter atmosphere.   .. until that whole construct breaks down, we are f'k'ed for summer enthusiasm.   Even in the Euro .. there's some 30 C differential between mid Ontario and NYC one or two of those days next week!   

 

Back in the day you didn’t have music on demand so riding in the car you had to wade through stuff like that waiting for your favorite song to come on.  Here’s another more famous song from the same artist.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Terrifyingly simplistic ... You get this imagine of a some 16-year old resting her cheek into her palm, gazing her starry eyes longing out the window of her bedroom while her oppressive mid century conservative back ground lords it thumb over her ambitions. 

That's the marketing target for that 1966 brand of mainstream pap ... and just listing to it, and having the advantage of being Generation -X (code for living in both worlds), that song conjures that image .. if not vestigial memory, while being safely outside of it.  Everyone else was hiding in the woods of marijuana with a hack saw trying to cut the manacles of said lunch box culture, and taste early Hendrix.  I'll tell yeah... the end of the 1960s was about the most dichotomous time in our history since the Civil War.

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Terrifyingly simplistic ... You get this imagine of a some 16-year old resting her cheek into her palm, gazing her starry eyes longing out the window of her bedroom while her oppressive mid century conservative back ground lords it thumb over her ambitions. 

That's the marketing target for that 1966 brand of mainstream pap ... and just listing to it, and having the advantage of being Generation -X (code for living in both worlds), that song conjures that image .. if not vestigial memory, while being safely outside of it.  Everyone else was hiding in the woods of marijuana with a hack saw trying to cut the manacles of said lunch box culture, and taste early Hendrix.  I'll tell yeah... the end of the 1960s was about the most dichotomous time in our history since the Civil War.

Yet in some level her words resonate.  Loneliness is not generational.  I remember listening to that song thinking derisively similar thoughts.   By the 1960s it seemed we were going old school or new age.  Many of us were both.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Yet in some level her words resonate.  Loneliness is not generational.  I remember listening to that song thinking derisively similar thoughts.   By the 1960s it seemed we were going old school or new age.  Many of us were both.

Hmm...  Upon further reflection ... I think the U.S.'s culture is presently deeply polarized, too -

I think the Internet and the ability to formulate into ilk-minded bastions of sympathizing thinkers is really polarizing everything.  The ability for folks to "find one another's feathers" is an ability like never before, and so powerful a force that it's triggering a cascade cultural evolution, with enclave political view structures and even conclaves of distilled ideologies ... That's tricky in a free-society with a 2nd Amendment and a tendency for said distilling to sow the seeds of zealotry -

Buuut that's about as gaped of a digression to a modeling thread as imaginatively possible huh ..haha